CosmicTeapot

Protip for those who take offense to 40BB vids: don't watch 40BB vids.

I'm really surprised at all the check-calling suggestions. We are OOP and SPR is like 4.5. This is just not a scenario that we want to try and keep in his weaker range. We have so little control on future streets and super awkward stacks. A bet-fold out of villain is a huge win for us regardless of what he has, and we are doing perfectly fine against his overall ships.

I probably play exactly the same. Don't like barreling turn because we block the only flop draw pretty well and the 2 won't bother any of his showdown hands one bit.

Check-calling is pretty bad as we can make a million mistakes OOP on future streets with awkward SPR. Looks like a perfect spot/hand to check-jam it against an unknown. 

Definitely hate the raise for the reasons you mentioned. We're also completely throwing away our positional advantage while being at the top of our range.

I think folding on club rivers is pretty easy since we should have lots of flush draws in his eyes (plus we have no blockers). Most other cards we can v-bet when checked to or pick off barrels. I think the only tough decision we have is if he barrels big a non-club broadway card.

Based on the table make up I'd probably fold the first time around, and then I'd definitely fold to the squeeze. We'll be in all sorts of nasty spots on the flop with this hand since SB will have 1 SPR to shovel in the rest with basically anything, and we'll have a very loose 250 BB deep stack behind us. One thing to note is that SB is not as tight as we think if he's not jamming that flop. Once we get to the flop, though, I'd play it like Overbet56.

I'd just fold preflop. We have such a dream seat with those two on our right, so I'm sure we can pick much better EV spots to tangle with SB than cold 4-betting this hand 100 BB deep. That equity sim is not exactly a reason to be excited, and I think that's absolutely best case scenario. I also dislike calling for the reasons mentioned above.

I'm barreling here like 80% of the time at least. I'd need a solid read that villain bets pretty mindlessly when checked to if planning to go for a check-raise. Most reasonably competent players should get suspicious when we all of a sudden check the brick turn after c-betting a very coordinated flop into two players, especially after opening UTG.

With what seems like a bet sizing tell it's probably fine, but can't fault check-folding or barreling, considering you've seen him limp 3-bet 7783 as well as AA. How did the hands play out previously where you jammed over his river bet?

Looks good to me on all streets. Your street-by-street breakdown is exactly what I'd be thinking with those reads. I think river sizing is perfect against such a player who never check-raises and calls wide.

There's nothing wrong with flatting pre but I think the squeeze is better here. The tag in HJ is tight but he can also fold to 3-bets, and the SB seems super loose and weak. While the HJ range will be very strong, he will also be very high-card heavy, with lots of hands that hate being up against AA. And even if it goes 3-way, we're still in a fine SPR spot.

As played, With just over 1 SPR and our pair + backdoors I think folding is a mistake, especially after one player has already checked. I would never bet small here. Folding out anything with even a tiny piece of the board is a huge win for us in such a big pot.

There are so many errors we can make by check-calling. By just calling we aren't guaranteed anymore to realize our significant equity if he barrels tough turns. And because of our hand's non-nut components we could also make a lot of incorrect calls or folds on later streets. It's so much better if the money goes in now to negate our bad position while we have more than enough equity against his overall range.

I like your line but I just full pot the turn for maximum value since we're never 3-bet folding.

Pretty opponent dependent here. Against some players there's definitely value in a small raise, but leaning towards calling the better he is. Any opponent reads/stats and what are the positions?

So it turns out my syntax was wrong. "TT:88+" is incorrect. It should actually be: "TT$tp:(J+,8,9)". This changes your EV considerably, making your shove correct if we go by your read that BTN is folding (I tend to agree). 

The correct syntax gives us 44% equity after I add some weaker AA combos he might flat (46% without those). I'm extremely surprised as I thought this was a clear fold, and I also find it really funny that after all that work I get the same equity in your original post. Even though he opens roughly 6% UTG, there are still very premium QQ and JJ combos that should be within his range and ones that can bet-call here which really helps us.

Board - 9hTd3s

PLAYER_1 44.3797% Kd8h7cKc

PLAYER_2 55.6203% (AAT3, AA33, AAJ8, AA78, TT$tp:(J+,8,9), 99$tp:(T+,8), AxTT$R:xx,  AT9$ds, T9$R$R$ds, QQJ$R, QQJ$ds, QJJ$R$ss, QJJ$R$ds, KKJT, KKQT, KKQJ, T9$M$M$np$ds, T9$M$R$ds, T9$R$R$ds, (QJ89, QJT9, QJT7, QJT8, JT98, T987, T986)$ds, (QJ89, QJT9, QJT7, QJT8, JT98, T987, T986)$ss)$nt

1399740 trials (exhaustive) 

Forgot  to add that I am 3-betting here always out of the SB and 3-handed, even against a 60bb unknown button. I'd consider flatting if BB is some enormous whale.

Regarding the squeeze factor: if we are going to start assuming that the villain has solid skills, then we should also assume that his range is wider than normal considering he is squeezing a short button and our capped (most always) medium-strength SB flat. Much different than squeezing out of the blinds vs a full-stacked MP open raise + caller.

Folding here should never happen, and especially not to a villain where all we know is that he has "TAG stats". I won't try to add on to what Tom said because I think he smashed it, but I'll add some syntax action.

(AA:ss, A$R$R$R:xx, $R$R$R$R:xx, AAQ, AA3:hh, AAT, AAK, AAJ, KK:88+, QQ:99+, KK$ds, AKK$N, (JT98:ss, JT97:ss, JT9Q, JTQ8)$ds, (JT98:ss, JT97:ss, JT9Q, JTQ8)$ss)$nt!wxyz

Against a tight, taggy 3-betting range I've added only what seems to be hands in the optimal c-bet/calling range. Against this range we have 44.1%. What then makes it a crystal-clear stackoff are the times he has a wider range (very possible), bet-calls lighter than this (most likely) or bet-folds (uncommon, but non-zero). 

Thought experiment: The only time I could ever see myself even remotely consider folding is in a spot like us raising UTG full-ring, we get 3-bet in MP from 14/8/2 player with 40% c-bet stat who then c-bets here. But that would be an A-game boss hero fold and near impossible to make in-game and 100 BBs deep.

Yes, I believe so. At least I don't get an error message when I type that. Typing TT88+ without the ":" should be all one-gapped double pairs up to AAQQ which isn't what we want.

Definitely fold. Against the following range of UTG-worthy hands that can ship here we have 34%, and this is probably being a bit generous:

(TT:88+, AxTT$R:xx,  AT9$ds,  99:88+, T9$R$R$ds, QQJ$R, QQJ$ds, QJJ$R$ss, QJJ$R$ds, KKJT, KKQT, KKQJ, T9$M$M$np$ds, T9$M$R$ds, T9$R$R$ds, (QJ89, QJT9, QJT7, QJT8, JT98, T987, T986)$ds, (QJ89, QJT9, QJT7, QJT8, JT98, T987, T986)$ss)$nt

Just mash pot. We're not really deep enough to get tricky with the flop, and that play doesn't really work as well when OOP. If my ghetto calculation is right, SPR will be around 0.6 on the turn so we are basically never folding even if he does flat. I'd imagine he'll just 4-bet most of the time anyways, seeing as he raised you with two players to act.

Agree with the above...this looks like a very clear check without more specific context/history. I can think of very few worse hands that will call and very few better hands that will fold if we bet. I'd imagine most of his jacks-up will have a blocker or two to the straight and very inclined to snap you off when both FDs miss.

Don't really play Zoom so maybe it's not as applicable here, but I prefer leading turn for balance purposes. Our hand is super face-up when we check-call and there are lots of rivers an observant opponent can barrel relentlessly. Having the A clubs also allows us to barrel club rivers credibly and make his life tough with any flush.

If he's even remotely aggressive then bet-3bet is by far the superior play. We want him attacking this board lightly since it whiffs our perceived range. We're really not worried about any hand since it's also extremely rare for him to have a set or 34 as it is for us.

EDIT: Board read fail on my part, I thought we had AA w NFD, not NFD + overs. I still like c-betting because of immediate fold equity. We also have a wrap blocker which is not insignificant. Getting check-raised is pretty gross, but can't see it happening that much based on the board and his range. We're also deep enough for him to have a check-raise bluffing range here too if he's at all aggressive, seeing as we should be whiffing this board a lot as well.

I would guess that shoving and folding are really close. I doubt shoving is + EV against someone who seems pretty passive on the flop, but it's not awful by any means. I agree with the above suggestions of calling and then folding all spade turns, as well as any 4.

I like the thinking on the check-raise but I think we're too deep for it. I just bet again for value/protection against pretty much everyone. I'd also be betting bigger on the flop. It's a fairly connected board and multiway. We also want to charge the HJ to peel us in position.