Hate This Spot

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

Hate This Spot

http://weaktight.com/5847431

So yeah I may have butchered this hand but this is a really common spot and I would like to learn to play it better. Villian is a reg playing 36/27 who my stats show steals about 57% in the SB and cbets flop about 70% of the time and 60% of the time on the turn. He's never c/r a turn as pfr. This is over a somewhat limited sample size of 400 hands but he's definitely not a nit. Due to how often I believe he's betting this turn with hands that I'm currently ahead of (Axxx+NFD, AKJT, lower 2pair, bare wraps, wraps+fd) and how often we run into a bad river that we may make a mistake on; is it correct to raise here? We're barely ahead of his drawing hands and doing terrible vs his value hands if we get it in on the turn. I have not seen him get to the river much so I don't have info on his 3barrel frequency. If raising isn't the right play here vs this villian, what's our plan on the river if we call? I can't imagine a fold is correct here. 


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