PLO50 CRAI multiway

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

PLO50 CRAI multiway

Hi again

http://weaktight.com/5772417

After going through equities, ranges I assume that my play was EV neutral (1-2%+-)

My assumptions for the hand
-UTG here never has good AA**
-UTG will not be foolish enough to bet bad AA into so many people multiway
-->UTG does not have AA**

-the BTN could have AA**, but only bad ones as well
-the BTN's calling range usually is a draw +pair hand, which he will fold to a check-raise (because UTG is getting it in)
-->I do not worry about BTN at all. He's never getting it in here unless UTG folds as he's too deep with UTG and would definitely raise OTF with a strong hand like a set!

Back to UTG:
I need 40% to stack off here. My assumptions~~
-50% he has 9T** here, given that he protects his hand with leading multiway 
-5% he has TT/99** here (he raised UTG, so there are only double pairs without AA left, rare)
-45% he has either QQJx/JT87 

If I am right about him donking QQJ* here, my equity should be above 40%. He did not 4bet, so his range is kind of capped somewhere...

board: 9h3sTd
44% versus:
QQJT,T987,QJT9,TJ99,JJTQ,QQTT,QQ99, AJT9, AT98


Further stats on villain:
-Reg
-He does NOT have a c/raising range (he leads everything OR check-folds)
-21/17/6/AF 4.0
-EP Preflop raise: 6% (!)

Results: posted later.


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