spokerman

What percent are you opening? Are you being exploited or are the opponents reckless?

Sounds like a big fish, don't be so scared to gamble with those types. You're getting 2:1, never an awesome spot but against that bad of player you can't fold profitably.

I would c/r flop and if it's a good player I would probably have to make a sick fold to a shove.

Does anyone know where you can find out exactly what top 20% looks like? I used those numbers on propokertools.com but am not certain what's included.

If you don't know much about the villain I would say play it that way.

I've heard of snowie a couple times. What is it and where do I find it? I would suggest following the gap principle.

I can't view this pic.

Thanks for the input. I guess I didn't quote the standard format. A/F is 1.5 3b is 7 but I've increased that lately with a modified positional 3b. I think you're right and I need to drop a like 5-10% off my calling range. I haven't seen a lot of good players with pfr much higher than what I have, any thoughts about thy?

100 hours? Don't quit your job yet unless you have more data to assure yourself that you can maintain a solid winrate.

This isn't a spot that you have options. If you check he auto bets and you call. By betting you increase equity and probably icm value by folding out his weakest but still live hands.

I thought the final table analysis was helpful. If only Bovada had an 8$ tournament with a 10k prize!

When it comes to mega donks I would call this. He just value bet 3rd pair, how can you fold TT getting almost 3:1. If his value range includes 3rd pair then that leaves a ton of hands that you're beating. It's easy to overanalyze and approach it rationally but keep in mind that his plays are not always rational so it's much harder to deduce his hand. I think it's a situation where you should just call and try to keep yourself from tilting when he shows some crazy suckout. I think everyone appears to be in the folding camp but without seeing a better bluff combo to value combo ratio compared to the pot size that takes into consideration his updated history, I don't think we can just make big assumptions and fold here. BTW I would agree with the 3b preflop for the simple reason of trying to isolate this guy but aside from that I think TT is quite weak to 3b here without more information on the first to players.

More info on the opponent would make a big difference. In what way are you owning him? I would not fold a lone 6 getting 2.75:1 but if this guy would then go for it. But we do have a bluff catcher. You seem convinced he would bet.any draw which should include 67. I have trouble believing too many 1/2 live guys would value bet trips here. Based upon your assumptions that you've presented I would expect to see a fair amount of Adx. You are getting 3:1 and it's probably a profitable call and I don't know if there's enough fold equity to raise. I'm guessing without further mathematical analysis that it's higher ev to call than shove or fold.

You made it sound like he was targeting you so that's a big consideration and given the history you have, his value range is slightly higher and would include some suited Ax plus plenty of possible random bluffs if he misreads you for QQ, JJ. You should be calling like 55% of combos that made it to the river for GTO so calling here I think is necessary and not really exploitable because it's not like he can add value combos to his range to exploit this.

I would guess that you are almost always losing here based on his stats and he's too weak to ever raise fold. I'm never folding this hand ott but the best exploit is to call on the draw and fold to a river shove. The TP isn't strong enough against villian's shoving range. However against most players I would gii otf.

Gramsci based on your posts I thought you were playing quite aggressive. You can get some hero calls against some opponents holding AJ KJ. I would typically bet this against most players.

Well I tend to do fine until it gets very aggressive and think I'm not adjusting as much as I could. Should I be 4betting AQo in these spots?

Thanks for the feedback. What would be a good open % from hj?

Well vrs QQ it would be 57:43 but I think you made a nice analysis. Additionally if he's jamming QQ and occasionally JJ to smaller bets, but folding some frequency to a larger bet I think we start to profit. Plus we have 25% equity when behind and he has 10% when he's behind. Our preflop action is in my opinion more weighted toward AA than AK since it's read specific and he doesn't likely know that we 4b due to his fishyness and not because of a trap.

What is this limp SB strategy? Why not raise?

What is this limp SB strategy? Why not raise?

I'd start with a few dynamic boards first. Like akj97 you could start with set and straight combos down and move to high cards until you've got the correct % of hands and maybe 5-10 boards would be enough to get some comprehensive information. Please share the results. If I get some time I'll try to work some out.

I would stick with the shove and use that same play with some weaker hands otf. He's probably predictable here. A lot of players raise bluff here but call draws to bluff on later streets. So try to take advantage of it if possible. If he's a great player then he's going to open up his raise flop call shove range. I think flatting is fine but probably not as good because you're open to a lot of draws and missed value vrs a couple possible hands.

It's for those reasons that I was suggesting 250 to put him in a tough spot it's virtually the same as an Ai because we're committed but psychologicaly it seems to work better. So let's assume he has Aq ak 88 99 tt jj qq for 45 combos but only calls tt➕ means he's calling 15 of 45. With spr a little more than 2, we are probably making money off the folds given we still have 25%ish equity vrs jj qq. And if we were so lucky that he has more hands in his range that are weak it's looking even better. I think it deserves more analytics. my preliminary estimates are thinly above break even but compare that to folding away a 500$ pot I think the answer is obvious.

What range is strong for smallish raises with speculative hands? I'm curious what hands you are giving him credit for given the description. If this is a normal player then I'd agree with the play because obv they're showing up with big pairs.

This is a dream flop. Play aggressive. I'd 3/4 two streets and a smaller value bet fold to shove most of the time on river obv against a really aggressive player call shove.