rabbhit

He will have aces up and a smaller set here way more often then aces and 54. Get the stack in and take a note if he just called with AA from SB 40BB deep.
The only hand that worries me in this spot is 54 of spades and that hand makes sense but thats only one combo.

I would go a little bigger on the turn since there are two flushdraws on the board and he has both in his range so maybe 1700-1900 on the turn so we can go for more value on the river against one pair aces hands that wants to hero call.

I am fairly confident turn would go check, check and check. MP2 should never fire a second barrell against two callers unless he flopped a flush and on river SB will likely bet out.
Against the range I assigned him, there is very few hands that doesnt combo a pair with a K or A heart draw or a made flush. I would expect AK or AQ to squeeze pre, that leaves a couple off offsuit aces and offsuit kings would be KQ and barely K10 and I expect an AJo, KJo and QJo to raise flop and prboably a raise from A9 aswell.

I've been thinking some more on the hand and even if I risk the turn to go check all around I probably like a flop call better and only call river if SB leads and fold to a checkraise from him on river.

So thinking back on the hand I really feel I played it quite bad. A fold is very nitty but I still feel it's close. Our read in this spot needs to be perfect and playing online and considering how people tend to pay off in weird spots I think a call is the best play. If he leads turn I would have to call and fold to river bet or check behind if he happens to trap. That would keep me a stack if I'm right and still win me a descent pot when I'm right since the pot in the flop is already 23k.

Soo yeah I like the safer line of just calling.

On final table I might fold if play is fairly loose. If play is tight I'm shoving. If this was 2 tables left I'm shoving all the day

I'm never folding turn against that flop bet. I'm just saying with a raise you might fold out alot of hands that you wanna keep in. Only time I might consider folding turn after calling is if he pots it for 4920, then I might consider that fact that my hand might not be good.

Another play that I dodn't consider that I probably like more looking at stacksizes is to just shove flop and might be a play I'll make depending on game flow.

It's a cooler that he has a set but I think you will be herocalled by many worse aces since you can't hold an ace if you have a flushdraw and a shove looks much like a draw on that flop.

I don't have ICMizer available and we don't have the stacks from the other table but I would assume we are on 14th place here, only 200 chips more then BB after he posted his blind. Usually the payout structure give payjumps when reaching 12 players, the earlier jump being at 15. Assuming blinds might increase fairly soon then if we fold and go through blinds without getting a hand we will be down to 10k and blinds go up to 1250-2500 so we have 4BB and no fold equity.
So maybe you are right yeah, by folding through 3 payers might be knocked out and we jump one step but have close to no chance to get further in the tournament unless we pick up a big hand because we can't really shove another marginal hand on the next orbit when we have 0 fold equity so then we wait for a premium and knockouts.

This might be flaw in my thinking, is it a big ICM mistake to shove?

I disagree, this type of player will usually bet 400 on the turn or 800 at max. If he bets bigger I'm done with that hand. So actually calling two streets costs us at max 3 blinds and on river this player type will usually just pot it, like he does when he has it.
I'm making assumptions on my experience with the players who min bet flop and turn and then pots river and always has it.
As I said, I would go broke aswell on the hand just not with an raise on the flop and in the heat of things I might not even raise the turn, there are to many cards that can improve my opponents hand on the river and I don't want check call it off so I might actually go with the line call - call - fold (if bet is bigger then halfpot on river.

As zero said, because of 3bet pre it's a pot on flop. Turn sucks and I would just sigh check - fold, At these stakes one of the players will turn up with a flush more often then not.

Pre I would just call, the only have 50BB stacks so you can't barrel them of anything if they do call the flop, rather 3bet if they both had 100BB stacks or like 30BB stacks

My mistake :) At work while reading the thread. I would just check behind, getting checkraised would suck and I doubt you ever get value if river pairs. Also calling a check -raise and then have a Q or A pair will not be a great scenario to get stacks in.

I think you can exclude most AA combos from his range. He would need some extra equity with a hand like AA109 or AA with double diamonds. Calling with only AA to hit a set at the same time as straight completes is complete spew (in my opinion ;)
I would just check call on this turn, bet - calling would need us to bluff any diamond and spade river since the pot will be so big. It's not a line I dislike but we are oop and most rivers he will bet and we will have to fold if we dont make a full.

So my play, check - call turn and depending on river and sizing I just call or fold. Only raise if J or 3 comes

Agree with this. If you had underfull on AA7 I would say just pot it since most Aces that has atleast two overs will come along. But as PermafLOat says, many players will fear AK and fold their ace not willing to stack of risking to draw dead.

Like previous poster, I don't like the check-raise on the flop. Yes, his minbet on the flop is very weak but there's no real reason to fold out his weak hands. Considering the sizing on the flop I assume he is a weak player because that bord is very scary for a set. There is tons of straight + FD combos and basically any broadway, 8, 7 or flushcard forces him to proceed with caution. So before we've seen this specific hand a set should be seen as highly unlikely and his range is more weighted towards weak aces and draws. Since basically any card over 7 is scary including all flush cards I would call with the intention to checkraise turn if it bricks, as it does in this case. My turn raisesizing depends on opponent, but I would try to go for stacks as we can't get value from draws on the river.

I would go broke on this hand aswell, just in a different way.

I don't think his shove is thin at all with QJcc. I actually feel it would be very bad to just check call a hand as strong as Q high flush. Sams line to check flop, bet turn and then bet river when opponent has showed weakness by checking on all streets I would never believe my QJcc to be bad if I was in Dylans shoes.
About Dylans range I agree that he probably doesnt have many (if any) non-flush hands when checkraising. Checkraising as a bluff here would be very tough to pull off when Sam is getting over 3 to 1 on a call (if my math is right and an assumed 300 ante).
Really tough spot, I probably wouldn't have been able to fold either.

I dont like the shove in this stage of the tournament. We are gambling that neither have picked up a pair or overs to call. If we where the original raiser and later positions and dynamics and stuff I could find a 4bet shove tempting. We will get better spots to get it in.
Someone mentioning 4bet folding, that's very bad with hand as good as 88. Rather do it with a hand like 87s that if called you can still flop good but if shoved on it's an easy fold since you have the worst hand. 4bet folding with 88 will mean that we fold the best hand very often, like AK or possibly AQs. Not a very sexy option.
Also remember that there are 6 players with smaller stacks and we have 29BB, there is no hurry.

Good fold

Akiras videos has helped me tremendously so I would recommend checking them out

BB/100 is not an interesting stat in MTT's. As posted, check your ROI and percent for ITM.

I wouldn't flat very often but I think a reasonable play since we are still 25BB deep is to 3B small. It defends against the times SB or BB wakes up with a hand. Also if V's opens has been uncontested I doubt he just randomly 4B shoves his open range, I actually think his 4B range is tighter then the calling range and I would be happy folding in that spot. If he has been 3B alot and has folded I like the jam, he might call wide being fed up with the 3betting and call with something like A5o

Agreed. People underestimate flats deepstacked and overplay and overvalue their hands. Not saying that OP did that in this spot but I would most likely check turn for some potcontrol and to induce bluffs if he floated with air or a gutter.
As played I would always check on river as I doubt we get called by a worse hand on river often enough.