opn_mindet
4 points
Hi. As you said i feel potting lets him play best vs my hand (he fold pair +fd or pure fd or weak tp but calls everything better). i dont think i wanna pot my range here a lot at all. if you consider c/r turn - dont you think c/c turn c/c river performs better vs his range (and his unknown tendencies)?
March 20, 2014 | 9:26 p.m.
hey, are we booth talking about the turn when thinking about c/cing. not sure but sounds like you want to c/c flop?
March 19, 2014 | 7:46 a.m.
March 19, 2014 | 7:42 a.m.
what hands you think he is bluffing with? what is he trying to fold out given odds?
March 16, 2014 | 6 p.m.
Hey,
hope ya´ll doing fine.
I am really interessed regards the following turn spot. We both played like 100 hands and i assume he is more reg then recreational. My 3bet image was tight.
Anyway i like to talk about the spot in generell.
Stacks are 100bb, i 3bet Qh8h7d6d and villain flats.
Flop: Ah7h6d (18BB) - Hero cbet and villain calls (cbet size 12bb)
Turn: Jc - Hero ? (hero c/c 60% bet)
River Qs - hero checks and villain jams - hero ?!?
Thoughts: I ran some quick math and gave villain 90%!aa pre and gave him the following continuing range: (67,a,hh,89,77,66,85) - that means he is folding nearly 50% flop which makes sence given my databese.
I obv. assumed he flats everything here sand excluded any bluffs too.
30% of his range is 2P+ and i have around 23% equity while having 68% vs the other 70% of his range. He obv. won´t call all of his range which i have 68% against but might bluff some (just some thoughts at this point).
So i am really thinking hard about c/c turn vs. betting esp. cause that gives me some more strenght once i check to c/c.
On flipside its really hard to get value once i hit and i feel my hand is kinda face up (i rep showdown value with draw, i assume most people assume we bet AQT* turn s default) so i feel i can get bluffed pretty easily and find myself in a nasty river spots as played out.
Long story short - maybe some of you can gimme soime input how to improve my though process in this situation. I am happy to discuss further details!
Thanks!
March 14, 2014 | 7:49 p.m.
Hey, i found that spot interessting myself so i put in some really really rough numbers to get an idea if it could be +EV.
I ran math with 100 bb eff. tho.
My assumptions are:
-we get it all in 3way with 38% pre (meaning we would play perfect post flop!) and noboday has AA 80% of time --> this is best case imo
or
- we make one player (mostly play in between) fold all but AA and get it in 20% of the time vs the player that has AA with 40%
Thats said i got 7,5bb EV. I didn´t use the 2 BB dead money (so little) from Co and don´t expect to get folds from both players at the same time (like if both have KK).
If we want to make more money we need to make it from the 3rd player that i assumed is folding pre which i don´t know is questionable (no idea given i don´t play 6max much at all).
I guess its even much more likely that we realise less then our theoretical ev in praxis then making more money vs. the player that i assumed simply folds. Plus you are 30bb deeper vs player with the strongest range.
Not sure if my quick numbers are helpfull (its so damm complex anyway) but i don´t see how this could be more then really really slim +EV if at all.
Cheers
March 14, 2014 | 6:34 p.m.
Hi, i am not that much into 6max myself but i think the way you argue about some hands (like 5678$ss in min32) is always based one some sort of "feeling" . You go back and forth, sometimes name all possibilities in a spot (like he could have a.) or b.) or he could 3bet pre or not etc.) without naming the one you put the weight (of your analysis) on when it comes down to make a final decision. So at least for me its very hard to take away much from this videos (that i "feel" (;-)) have little structure). I would prefer hearing some more clear assumptions or clear reasons why you decided to play a hand the way you played it and i think using more specific ranges and some kind of analytic tools (ppt f.e.) is really helpfull so your decsions are more based on math then on some sort of feeling (i can imagine that your feeling is right often given you played lots of hands but i think this way of teaching is really supoptimal for the viewer/students of the game).
Greetings
March 1, 2014 | 3:37 p.m.
I am curious how you guys handle the following scenario on turn. I ran couple of sims and tried to brainstorm a bit about it but i didn´t come up with a way that doesn´t include overfolding turn to not getting exploited on river or having to call river really wide (like most 2pairs) if we don´t want to overfold turn
Here is the hand:
http://weaktight.com/6341192
The match is early and villain seems fairly aggressiv within first 5min. I started with giving myself a roughly 50% continuing range on flop (while definding roughly 55% pre (vpip pre 55 while 3bet 15%). So its still really hard to have many straights in my range on that turn (which i think is the worst card in the deck). I find it nearly impossible to create a range that can stand some heat (and doesnt only contains of bluff cathcer mostly) so i am asking myself if i am missing something or simply have to live with the fact that i still have to fold a lot here.
I feel its really hard to cc dry 2pairs here and even 2pair with a gutter are hard to call down given i expect a river barrel a decent amount.
I hope i could express my "problem" . How do you try to handle these situations on turn and i am thankfull for any input.
Dec. 19, 2013 | 2:42 p.m.
But if he has do jam blank rivers his turn cr in a vaccum seems bad to me or he know has to be guessing how many flushes we b/c turn and fold river? Do we really have a b/c turn - fold river range vs a polarised range w/o more reads?
Dec. 2, 2013 | 6:16 a.m.
Hi,
villain is a reg and i try to understand his play and i am always looking for things i don´t understand completely in first place to see what i can take from it and maybe implement some of this stuiff into my game once i understand the plays and think they are usefull.
We don´t have much history nor have i been barreling like crazy or anything.
What do you think of the way he played it - what can we take away from that for the future?
I assume he think i am barreling to wide with my value range (all flushes) and will b/f lots of them except the NF?
C/r the turn unless he thinks i fold a flush makes the play slightly -ev with his river bet sizing (because he is wa/wb on turn cause i don´t bet straights on turn or sets but i bet flushes/air (blocker or total air (overbluffing).
I assume his plan is to c/f river ui given he has to expect some folds of flushes on turn (or his turn c/r doesnt make sence?) - so why should he bet river now when i fold my air on turn and maybe even some flushes) unless he thinks i have enough weak flushes on river in my range (which again make turn cr bad imo again).
Against the NFblocker he now loses if i floatet him cause i don´t see him c/c river...and given his blocker i can imagine seeing him calldown knowing i probably won´t vbet Jhi flush or at least not anything worse (only NF blocker) and catch a bluff by my NF blocker.
Or is he going to c/c river thinking i only vbet NF and float a blocker and won´t vbet more vs a polarised range.
Or: Am i overthinking something a bit ;-)?
Thanks for any input
Nov. 28, 2013 | 1:30 p.m.
Quick question regards min 20 table 3 (bottom right), 3bet Pot on T77fd. You say given you have less trips then villain here you decide to go with a more passiv game plan right? I am wondering how you come up with that conclusion because i think you have trips+ at least as often as villain, probably a tiny bit more ( i ran a sim with my own 15% range (to avoid using the PPT ranking) and stoved vs a 90%!aa range (to make it simple) and cam up with you having trips+ 18% vs him having trips+ 17%?
Nov. 20, 2013 | 11:06 a.m.
Hey guys, thanks for your comments. I considered the c/c turn line but i felt its a bit to weak and it costs my to much money in a vaccum and given its early in the match i usually stick to more vaccum plays. I have a bit trouble knowing that if i have no c/r range on turn it makes villains live easier given he know (and even if not) that i c/c or c/f 100% of the time so i was thinking about widening my c/r on turn but i couldn´t find many hands here that makes sence or balance out my straight heavy river range (say i c/r 22 on turn i still have a bluff catcher on river given i have worst boat, c/r AA doesn´t make sence cause i block potencial madehands that can call turn c/r so that leaves only 99 at best). Seems like c/c is the logical conclusion. The good thing about turn cc is that we are now able to put in some river c/r tho i am not really bluffing blank rivers ever so usually villain should fold decently on river to c/r but who knows.
Sept. 28, 2013 | 8:47 a.m.
Hi,
compared to my other hand i try to make this one short ;-). I played villain - which is a reg (6max mostly) for sure for 20 hands and he went really crazy pre oop and 3bet nearly every time he had a chance. I haven´t seen any showdowns nor could i win any pots so far (had to fold pre or flop). SO this is one of the few spots where he flatted.
Flop:
I don´t give him much credit in first place - expect to not see set often at all given pre and my blocker - that said i see merrits of raising.
I didn´t raise cause my hand plays tricky versus a 3bet and not great if i get called and turn completes flush or straight (half the deck) but maybe i am a bit paranoid and should just raise it up.
I expect to see lots of pair+ draw/gutter + draw (Fd´s mostly) that he don´t wanna c/c but i doubt he b/f them.
Turn:
I see him betting most of his range on turn again and think we have clear call on turn. Don´t see much points in raising.
River:
Once i call the turn i think my hand looks like showdown value a lot (Qx+) so i doubt he is choosing this sizing as a bluff often (if ever). I am not sure if he really bets trips here (but could be possible) but most likely the straights imo.
I don´t think he has lots of boats (given pre, given my blocker and his "smallish" sizing).
So my questions are:
1. Do you raise flop?
2. You agree with my assumptions?
2. As played: You think we can credibly rep boats and use our blocker and raise river?
Thanks in advance!
Sept. 25, 2013 | 6:28 p.m.
Hi guys,hope life is good. Really like to get some feedback on following hand. Unfortunately i d on´t have the handhistory as file anymore but i try my best to give you all details.
Infos: Villain def. is a reg (mostly 6max). We are early in the match - only played some hands but so far he opens 100% and seems to play a really aggressive cbet flop strategy (cbet every flop). No specific reads/hands i could offer here.
Action: He opens to 22$ i call with 3467:ss (100bb effe. stacks)
Flop: As 2h 9s He cbet 30 into 44 and i call
Turn: As 2h 9s - 5h Villain bet 80 into 104 and hero c/r to 300 - villain calls and pot is 704 with 648 behind
River: As 2h 9s - 5c - 9d
Hero has to make a decision ...
I think pre and flop seems mostly standard - don´t see any real other options.Turn: This is better for his range then for mine so i check (which i assume is default for most) - given the fact that i have the supadupa redraw i think c/r turn is the way to go.Here is where i think my range is mostly unbalanced - i don´t see many semi bluffs i´d play this way honestly nor do i c/r merge ever or at least often enough (because a.) i don´t have sets (f.e.) here often at all and b.) there is good reason to c/r flop too).
My assumption about villains range once he calls:
-any set
-maybe he flats some straights to bluff pairing river
-A9 or Aces up with spades
-say any Khi FD
The river is really nasty for my range cause i don´t have boats while villain has and given my perceived range (straights and semi bluff give ups/air) he can read my madehand pretty wells and i can´t do much against it (at least i don´t see how i could construct a range that isn´t in a tricky spot on that river without making my game way more complex (then i feel its has to be overall).Villain shoudln´t get to the river with many hands he has to bluff or can be bluffing with (he either has boats or busted FD´s or Ax+ which is showdown value).I don´t think people float my c/r turn that light tho i am repping thin - i am curious what you think about this !Given my assumptions i think river is a c/f and although i am top of my range here i feel it doesn´t matter that much anymore. My plan for river spade was c/c btw. because now i think villain could turn more hands into bluff and my c/r turn range contains some more hands (straights) i could c/f now.
My Questions:
Do you play turn differently?
What you put villain on once he calls turn c/r?
Whats hands would you c/r turn in addition (semi bluff and value).
How does you river plan look like on that 9 and what would you do on a spade?
I hope i didn´t ask for too much - i will check this thread each day and if you like put in some ppt as back up for my comments.Thanks in advance for feedback!
Sept. 25, 2013 | 6:05 p.m.
Thanks for the input guys...haven´t seen it yet - so sorry for the delay.
I agree with first statement made by you oddsen: I don´t get to the river that light here (at least perceived) so we don´t need to be bluffing/vbetting (too) thin here.
At zen fish: regards your "Widening our defense range in position on hard-to-hit-boards is generally a good thing. " - i like that idea but think i hesistate to often to pull the trigger. In this spot the NF blocker is really good candidate for making some stabs later on esp. if backed up with some equity and if my image is good/tight.
I also think low paired boards fall into the category too were double floating is a viable option i probably should implement this more and more into my game (in these spots people rarely bet twcie to cc river).
Sept. 19, 2013 | 8:04 a.m.
hi, i dont have tons of experience in six max but i am wondering what type of hands we wanna bet this sizing on that board expecting the bet be +ev (besides the super strong hands we rarely ever flop). if we really have enough hands to connect with this board to get away with that sizing i would guess we 4bet to many low cards for deception. thanks for any replys sir.
Sept. 3, 2013 | 5:32 p.m.
you dont know villain...you have no history nor do you expect to play him a lot/long time...why not cr top of our value range and look for other hands to calldown?
Sept. 3, 2013 | 12:15 p.m.
Hi, i am a bit unsure regards following spots. Its one of the spots where we have most likely the best hand but its questionable if we get called by worse enough to make a value bet.Villain is a reg but i think he is coming from 6max.He doesn´t open butons super wide and seems more passsiv on flop while his aggression is raising towards river. In 3bet pots (his 3bet is 17%) he is cbetting only 35% so far (ion srp´s like 45%) and is c/f half the time so far (600 sample). He can attack capped ranges tho like 3betting turns when you chkB flops and rep turned trips or when you chkB paired flops.Seems like his whole game is really showdown bound at least on flop and turn... i altho have seen some light calls on river in smaller pots.My image is in line/probably tag/tight not to creative/bluffy i guess.
His 1/2 make sence on this flop as i see most people do it on monoton flops- not sure about turn tho (could be a flush still, occ. a boat) .On river i feel i have the best hands most of the time. Assuming i flat all flushes and sets, 2pairs that turn a boat on flop i have 40% boats+ on river and given i am not betting all my flushes on river i am not afraid of b/f to much on river nor is my range capped.I still struggle with betting river unless i bet really small (unsure how to react to a cR). I don´t think its a good spots for villain to go for a cr for value on river and i´d be suprise to see him showing up with different opinion. On the flip side i´d don´t think i get called by 3rd nutflush often enough to make hbetting +ev.So he might c/c with a nut flush sometimes, rarely with a straight (which i think would be pretty bad against me.Do you guys see any other factors to bet or do you disagress with my assumptions?
Sept. 3, 2013 | 11:47 a.m.
No problem sir. Thanks for your quick reponse.
July 31, 2013 | 5:59 p.m.
Hi, a short question regards the JJ hand. You say he is value betting 32k hands on river and we need 33% equity to call (2:1 pot odds) - to me that means he needs to show up with 16k bluffing hands so the relation between value and bluffs is 2:1 and we get right price to BE call. He has 23k hands he could be bluffing with which means he has to bluff 16k of his 23k potzential bluffing hands which is 70%. You calculated it differenly coming up with only 46%. So to me 33% means 16k hands he has to be bluffing with but for you its 10k. Would be nice if you check that and let me know your answer. Thanks!
July 31, 2013 | 8:47 a.m.
I assume he agreed? About the video: Phil, in the middle of the video (or 2nd half) you bet 4s3sQh2d on turn again on 4hAdJdQc...your reasoning is protection (i think). I think even if he c/c any QT/KT or A,J (which is over 50% c/c on flop) we are under 50% and will constantly value cut ourself so is betting that weak of a hand really optimal here. That said: What kind would you check back to protect you river range if you bet any 2pair? I think same scenario happened a bit later where you bet bottom 2pair on AJ9fd x on turn. Thanks.
May 7, 2013 | 10:28 a.m.
HI, about the KQTT$ds hand early in video (3bet pot 200bb). What is the worst hand you think villain is stacking off and how much do you expect him to cbet this typ of flop (his 3bet is 15% right?). Do you see any FE on flop ever? Then i can run some more accurate sims but right now the assuptions about villain seem pretty extrem (= he seems to play a very extrem strat as described)? Thanks!
May 3, 2013 | 9:18 a.m.
Ho do you think "gto" thinking helps in a situation like that in practise? For example in the hand above - what do you take away from that way of thinking when finding a answer to "should i call or fold"? Or you think its more usuefull for working on generell game plans ("only"). Greetings
May 2, 2013 | 10:03 a.m.
Hi, i couldn´t answer earlier because i wasn´t on my computer last days but let me say thank you in first place. Can´t remember getting such a detailed answer the last time so be sure i appreciate that. I will reread the post later when i am free 100% to make sure i understand what ur saying ;-) before answering myself. Thank you sir!
May 2, 2013 | 9:22 a.m.
Lets assume villain never raise worse so my whole range for value betting becomes a bluff catcher.
If i want to be balance on river from gto perspective i should have 1/3 bluffs and 2/3 value hands given my pot sizing.
Now what about the river: When i get raise the pot odds are kinda irrelevant from gto point of view (?) - i mean you hear often "we get 4:1" and need to be good 20% but is that right gto thinking? Is that what we should think about in first place when finding a decision between call and fold?
I mean our range is: 1/3 bluffs and 2/3 value hands (now bluchcatcher) so if villain minR river we have to call 50% of our bluffcatcher to not get exploited right (so his bluff has to work 50% for BE).
So if i want to play river against an unknown i should look at GTO and call half my bluffcatcher, right? If so which role play pot odds in that scenario?
I hope you understand my question - i had a long day and my mind isn´t the freshest anymore ;-).
April 30, 2013 | 3:39 p.m.
April 30, 2013 | 1:45 p.m.
thise hand was the first 3bet pot early in match and all i had were some stats that popped up before (from the past, like 100ish hands, he opened 70% and cbets 85% IP, besides that i don´t have many more stats for turn/river) so i think he is probably more recreational player (given he only opens 70%)
$5/$10 Pot Limit Omaha Hi
2 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by http://weaktight.com/
Stacks:
SB $966.50 97bb
hero (BB) $1,058.50 106bb
Pre-Flop: ($15, 2 players) hero is BB Ks 4d As Ad
SB raises to $30, hero raises to $90, SB calls $60
Flop: 9c 5s 4h ($180, 2 players)
hero bets $110, SB calls $110
Turn: 7h ($400, 2 players)
hero checks, SB checks
River: 4c ($400, 2 players)
hero bets $260, SB goes all-in $766.50
or for those who like it more visual: http://weaktight.com/5649009
I am interessted in your flop play...i actually would probably find a fold to a jam but how do we react to a small raise?
As played i don´t think i got many bluffs with checking but might get hero called some so i decided to bet. Facing a raise sucks but besides 74 i don´t see many hands he get to river that beat me while thinking he is pretty polarised (boat/blocker(air))...lots of 74 or 54 won´t get to river cause they probably raise flop. Btw: I think our hand is too strong for c/f and given that we are nearly to of our (perceived) range when we bet an overpair (face up) folding here is pretty exploitable (our trips here doesn´t count much more then dry AA besides the blocker).
Thats said i think i should call here always as played esp. with the 4 blocker but feel people don´t bluff much here at all (nor raise the few trips they could have)?
How you guys play :
1.) flop (vs raise big/small) and as played ...
2.)river (i think turn is cf always(?)?
Thanks
March 25, 2013 | 2:44 p.m.
I bet he has at least twice as many straights compared to 2pairs (which he isn´t calling 100% anyway to a bet). Saying he is jamming pair+ gutter is probably a bit off too vs that passiv player type.
I don´t understand why "top of our range" is a reason for betting here given circumstances (and btw. we should have more straights here then sets). I agree with the argument "beeing uncapped is good " but i don´t think that argument (beeing capped with a check if u bet all your straights) outwheights the cons of betting plus the argument itself is not as important against this guy as it is vs reg i think. I am not saying betting is definitely a mistake but i think i we bet i think it should be really small. greetz
March 23, 2013 | 3:33 p.m.
i feel people overestimate the likelyhood of getting c/r by a draw compared to getting c/r by J9 or slowplayed set. i really doubt we ever find enough draws (we remove fd's that turned more equiry with QT a fair hit) to make jamming better then calling if we decide to continue.c
March 25, 2014 | 7:25 a.m.