ValueTown

I agree with all the above but i would add the fact that most suited cards with some kind of connectivity are theoretically ok for BB to call with here vs 2 opponents, (you can quite easily see by looking at his cold call freq in the BB whether he is that kind of player), so its worth factoring into your thinking that the turn may have improved him to a FD+GS, Pair+FD etc, however you are ahead of 90% so yes...gii

They don't need to = 100% WWSF simply includes the times that your opponent folds during the hand

I think the important correlation is between WTSD/W$SD but to be perfectly honest i've never used WWSF

Your not getting stats on opponents primarily because 10k hands isn't a big enough sample (as mentioned), there are plenty of players playing this in a day.

Your Cbet is pretty low (as mentioned above but i'll try to elaborate a bit) IP you should be cbetting aggressively vs some player types but i feel that perhaps you are playing too passively in general OTF. Players will be at the extremes vs Cbets, they either fold too much, float too much (this data converges pretty quickly) or outright reveal the strength of their holding by raising (you can look at your DB to see that players at 5nl overwhelming have TPGK+ when they raise flop). These tendencies should be easy to play against (you have to have your HUD set up properly) and you should see an improvement in your win-rate pretty quickly if you start by Cbetting slighty more of you value hands and high equity bluffs.

It's tough for you rep hands like AJ+ since you didn't 3b them preflop and BDF's are just an unlikely holding. I can see what your trying to do but you need to understand the thought processes of your average opponent in this population a little better imo. Maybe have a look over your DB for spots like this and see how your doing over a large sample (you probably need 100k+ hands).

It's more useful to think in terms of equity than variance. What percentage of your equity OTF do you think you can realise by either showing down and winning or having your opponent fold at some point?

Donking at these stakes generally means a strong hand, or one with a lot of equity, are we likely to get many folds if we bet or raise at some point during the hand given that this board texture favours bb's calling range as mentioned?

And if we get to showdown, either by betting river and getting called or by xb how often is our hand likely to be good?

Players that 3b to this sizing regularly are fish. Knowing this we need to decide the best strategy for inducing mistakes. As mentioned, 4b pre but as played 3b flop is also an option since these players are willing to gii with their oesd's and fd's otf.

I think folding river is fine here

Welcome and gl! Will you be setting daily volume goals and how are you addressing your tilt issues? imo simply saying 'i'm not going to be results-oriented' is not enough

The flat is probably going to be marginal since your generally folding when squeezed but probably fine if that seems unlikely. As played i would need a more reliable read than this sample size to call turn and certainly wouldn't be folding river (the shove is for $19.35 eff) since MP can hold JTs, TT+ (26 combos) while your only beaten by a handful of better flushes.

A quick indicator of whether your bluffing too much on the river (obviously there are more thorough ways i.e mentioned above) is to see whether you improved on the turn. If your bluffing rivers where you haven't improved anywhere in the hand then you are undoubtedly going to end up bluffing too much. Yes you have some blockers but your forgetting that at 10nl your going to get called down by 1 pair hands quite a lot in single raised pots.

You should really tighten up you PF flatting ranges, the reason why you fold hands like yours in MP is because of the risk of getting squeezed and if your calling there too then your range is just going to be so weak that your going to get blown off so many flops its not even funny

People generally either cbet too wide or not enough at 5nl but normally its way too much so BB normally still has some AJ+ in his range.

Judging by preflop action i would assume it's fair to say that your calling too much from early position. So when you call flop you have hands like 56s 89s or hands like TJo with a heart and a lot of flush draws so you still have plenty of draws + 8x which (shouldn't but) may call a turn bet.

I think it's contradictory to say that he wouldn't 3b 88 but might 3b 66 out of boredom. I would assume he is flatting these and when he xb turn you can just about definitively rule out sets and over-pairs. I wouldn't worry about whether or not he's checking back turn with a 'balanced' range it's all about getting value at these stakes so when he xb his range is capped to hands that either want to bluff river or have some small sdv imo (8x being the top of his range). I think the hand is played fine and your decision as to whether to bet river comes down to your opponent.

Regarding your specific question, i would bet the most i think my opponent is likely to call. You could probably make it 1/2psb or slightly more and still expect a call down from A high at 5nl.

Agree with @taaazz regarding cbet sizing and i'd add that checking with the top of your range (AK, KQ) would also be fine but if you feel your hand may need some protection (i.e hearts coming on the turn) then this is another reason for why don't need to make the cbet so large.

I think had you 4bet smaller preflop btn would have had more bluffs in his range OTR.

As is i think all his JT, KJ, and most of his AJ probably fold pre vs 3x 4b.

Your missing value from all his PPs by not betting turn imo. Plus you are giving all his Ax a free card to outdraw you OTR.

You checked turn for 'pot-control' but then bet river 2xpot?

Not sure which hands you're ahead of call vs this river sizing. ALL his PP's need to be betting turn for protection generally which leaves him with air (which doesn't call v any sizing) and boats (which raise vs any sizing) so if your b/f OTR you need to make it waaaaaay smaller.

getting 3.35:1 i think you have to call since the boats he can have OTT are 99 exclusively. Having said that i'm having trouble seeing which part of his range really wants to be raising this turn since he should be calling with all of his Kx. I wouldn't be suprised to see him turn up with a slow-played hand like like AA or KK

I would expect 77, JJ to raise turn so hands which call consist of draws, most of which get there on the river, and some Jx which will mostly xb river so i'm sigh x/f river since he seems really light on bluff candidates.

Edit: x/f river vs a shove. Vs smaller sizing is gets closer to a call. And i also just saw you said villain is a fish so betting is also an option OTR if you have a read that fish will call T with a wide range

Yes, you're not flatting the 4b preflop to fold on a flop which doesn't improve your opponents range.

Whats the best way to factor or opp calling V our 4b into our calc to find our EV?

aaaaaaaaaand....they reinstated me http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/57/poker-legislation-ppa-discussion/pokerstars-account-suspended-1562862/

:)

Just had my account suspended myself but for completely different reasons. I've held the screen-name SatanIsLord8 on PS for the last 3 years and now they tell me that it causes 'genuine offense' to 'a large proportion of players'. They've been politer than the email OP received but i still feel a little aggrieved that they should suddenly take this position after so long.

1. Playing cash games will provide a solid foundation for later on if you decide to move into MTT's. Whichever you decide to go with you should stick with it, at least until you have your solid fundamentals.

2. Play with a solid BRM strat, 50bi's at the micros cash should be achievable 40bi's at the least i think. When you have 50bi's at the next stake move up, if you drop below 40bi's move down. Don't try and chase losses, just move on down till you have 50bi's and move back up again, no big deal.

3. Focused study - No half-heart watching a video with a couple of beers and the tv on in the background. Watch, pause, take notes, watch again (I normally miss loads the first time around).

4. Play decent volume, which will give you decent with samples to use your database/analysis tools to get an idea of where exactly your game needs improvement (this will help you target your study toward the material which is most relevant to you).

5. Work on your mental game to help you recognise/reduce tilt.

6.Eat right, exercise, meditate, whatever works for you to reduce stress and improve concentration. You may need to streamline your life a little/a lot to achieve many of these things, it took me quiting my job and moving to the other side of the world, but 'healthy body, healthy mind' is an old yet painfully poignant adage.

gl and keep us posted!

Barreling club turns gives you the option to bluff river and villains range is going to be wider than you imagine here (perhaps you should look at the equity each hand in villains 3b range has vs your CO open range when you 4b to 2.2x + he's in position and can easily exploit someone like you who is over-folding so much OTF).

If its thin value he could easily have a worse J though right, so are we still positive its a fold?

On a dry run out where out the draws miss OTR wouldn't he be making it bigger for value? I mean aren't most people calling with a J here even to a larger sizing after villian checks back the turn? It looks to me more like a blocking bet than a value bet.

How much of your UTG open range wants to bet OTF vs villains missed Cbet? your range is probably going to look wide to villain, incentivizing his bluffs, which have little SDV, to lead the turn.

You could be C-betting turn with a wide range of hands since the 8h mostly improves the weaker part of btn's range. Flop calling range:

https://gyazo.com/319e861ed245ab00c1752efbf0b51f6f

Hands he might turn into a bluff OTR i think: Ad10d, KdQd, Qs10d, 10d9d (4 combo's), which seems pretty well balanced as his flushes and sets (I've weighted these to 30% as someone rightly pointed out he mostly raises these on the turn) account for around 6 combo's. So over all he value:bluff ratio OTR is slightly too bluff heavy but not very much and just may ok actually since he's shoving $20.75 to win $13.15. Turn calling range:

https://gyazo.com/0f6957e497481350a2a78bbd9a4458c4

It depends what type of fish he is. Would he check back turn with a FH, probably not. So he either has 22 (3combo's) OTR or complete air (quite a few combos after you XC flop then C turn).

I think not raising pre at these stakes is big mistake since opponents are going to make so many mistakes pre- and post-flop that your missing value if you don't start building the pot early.

p.s - i balance my limping range by not limping

Yes, you definitely should be betting turn for value vs all his TP hands then barreling rivers that don't bring a spade and probably Q and 10 too