John Morrey

^^ Good post.

What range of hands do you think he is calling the river with though?

Can someone construct what they think is a realistic range for villain to get to the river with here?

I personally would rather polarize our cbet range so they can't take advantage of me by raising AT ALL (TP + OESD definitely fits into the top part of this), than I would by C/C down here with AA which just seems awful. Especially in a BvB where play is going to be more LAG by default.

Just curious, but why do you particularly have to have a c/c range?

Are you ever C/C a bigger than TPNK hand here? Because if not any perceptive player and even aggro fish are just going to beat the crap out of our range when we take this line. I think betting at least the flop is MUCH more +EV than a C/C line.

I definitely think if u bet 40 and he shoves u are almost always beat. He has 7-10 combos of nuts and only 6 combos of AQ so the bet might even be too thin to make. I so agree a larger turn bet is best but not so much to size a river shove but because that's the street we get our value on.

I honestly dunno what to do. I kinda hate shoving cause the VB is thin, I kinda hate betting cause it commits us, and I kinda hate checking at all cause he checks back at least some hands he might call with.

Stacks are really awkward and this seems like a thinish VB.

I really don't like the C/C line you take here. It opens us up to be either bluffed or thinly VB by our opponent so I much much prefer betting. I haven't thought much about it but at face value I really love a bet, CR line here.

No I understand and I didn't mean to make it seem like I thought it was a dumb question cause it's a good one and I personally would find a lot of trouble folding this in practice.

Also it makes me think about how I should be thinking about a lot of my spots and ways that I could be being exploited or ways that I could exploit (like CRAI here as a bluff more often).

How many combos of Kx can we realistically put in his range? You say he's tight so I'm assuming only Kx broadway and heavily skewed towards AK which I think he rarely folds, we block KT but also JT.

Other than AK I see no other non nutted hand other than a passive AA that bets flop, C/C turn, C river (but then again how many nutted hands check river with intention to raise?) so I think he is usually checking with the intention of calling a river bet. Perhaps he has JJ or TT (which we block) or some other medium pair that just wants to see a cheap showdown but I think those are all HEAVILY discounted when he C/C a Q turn.

I dunno why you're worried about being exploited by CRAI river bluffs at 100NL unless you're playing in some pretty insane games/very good aware players. He would have to be doing this a lot as a bluff to be exploitable here.

In fact I think this is a bluff so rarely that I'm probably just going to fold because it's probably exactly what it looks like a high % of the time---a better flush.

I think I like it. I dunno about just calling the flop I might minraise here or something.

I think I'm either 4b or folding PREFLOP.

When we call oop we are completely face up as med pair/AQ so he can play pretty perfectly against us.

Unless of course you want to get tricky and start calling oop with weird/nut hands, but I don't think that is +EV because we are oop and will still make more mistakes in general.

I think I'd probably add TT to my 4b value range vs. some players...7% is probably too narrow though. I think I'd raise here some % and fold here some % but calling oop is baaaad imo.

Regardless it's by no means an easy decision. I think my scaled down version of his calling range where he has only PPs is way too narrow for someone playing 19% of his hands at FR. That's semi-loose for FR. That would be about 30% at 6max.

So he's likely a looser player.

But people in general are way more likely to call too often at 100NL so by VB thin we are exploiting that tendency.

The other thing no one mentions is that by betting we prevent him from bluffing more than checking would. A villain is way less likely to raise bluff the river than bet bluff. Not to mention that a wide % of his range would CALL a bet but wouldn't BET itself when checked to.

I say if we're going to err, let's err on the side of aggression, rather than passivity.

The other thing we have to consider is what other kind of hands we are taking this line with. We are certainly 3b missed draws some of the time here, and we are always 3b nut hands, and we are rarely pure bluffing by firing 3b on this board, so why are we b/b/c-f an overpair? When we check the river we are opening ourselves up for any perceptive player to completely exploit our range by betting/bluffing more frequently here on this river. Our hand is completely face up as weak/marginal. That, more than his calling range, is the reason I think c/f is so terrible.

But even if you take out all his 6x hands (which I don't think is good, considering he's likely a fish and fish don't fold flopped top pair to small bets), a bet is still better than a c/f.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

25 games 0.000 secs 5,000 games/sec

Board: 5c 6h 4h 4s 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.000% 48.00% 02.00% 12 0.50 { QQ-TT, 88-77 }
Hand 1: 50.000% 48.00% 02.00% 12 0.50 { TcTs }

I think if you put 99 and other nut hands in the model (which raise), then you also have to put all his air in there too (that folds to a bet). Remember we are evaluating a bet vs. his CALLING range, not his whole range.

I could be wrong about this but it makes sense to me.

Even if you add all the boats in there which he raises most of them on the flop and is raising the river and we fold, it's still >50%

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

50 games 0.000 secs 10,000 games/sec

Board: 5c 6h 4h 4s 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.000% 44.00% 01.00% 22 0.50 { QQ-44, A6s, 76s, A6o }
Hand 1: 55.000% 54.00% 01.00% 27 0.50 { TcTs }

It's not even thin value. It's FAT.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

40 games 0.000 secs 8,000 games/sec

Board: 5c 6h 4h 4s 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.250% 30.00% 01.25% 12 0.50 { QQ-TT, 88-77, A6s, 76s, A6o }
Hand 1: 68.750% 67.50% 01.25% 27 0.50 { TcTs }

Im def betting thin on this river. 19 seems like a good bet size that will get looked up by 77,88,9x,6x etc.

I dont mind c/c a small bet either as it widens his range to include some bluffs etc, but hes not going to bet with a LOT of hands in his range that he will call with.

Also he didnt 3bet pre so he has few bigger overpairs and sets and straights raise this flop except 99.

I think c/f is terrible bad for these reasons.

Are we not raising simply because he has the option to b/3b? That doesn't seem like a good reason to me.Can you elaborate a bit?

You have like ~50% equity with your draw + over so I'm raising a fish lead here like 100% of the time.

I try to balance my C/F range with a lot of strong and medium strong draws that can handle a free card if villain checks but can also C/R and like to get a lot of money in on the flop (or all of it). I think we only need to really C/R dry boards as a bluff (and obv balance it with strong hands) when we're facing those guys that Bet in position a high high % of the time or just are stubborn.

I don't like the turn raise. I doubt you have a very wide value range here, you have no 4's in your range at all usually and few boats. On the river I'm l;eaning towards folding just cause his bet call on the turn is usually strong and I don't think he can fold TT or JJ.

You also have zero Q in your range unless exactly like Qxcc so you have low FE.

I think there is very little chance you are ahead here (if he calls a shove) unless CO is a total drooler. He raised preflop and called oop so about the only hands that you beat now are KQ, KJ, QQ, AQ, AJ, NONE of them usually check raise this flop. I put him on a ton of sets, straights and combo draws to C/R here so we're likely beat unless he's a drooler/spewy.

If we must get it in we shouldn't really get it in on the flop. I'd flat and evaluate turn.