MonK_Key

Hi,

In my opinion, u are strugglin in situation with (un)balance-polarise range vs bluffcatch hands.

Here, if u have AQ, JJ or 88 it doesn't matter that much because u have a bluffcatcher vs nuts/air range so u need to find enough bluffs to make the call EV+.
U did the job...

But i think there's somethin wrong then... It means to find enough bluff here, he needs to 3 bet pf somethin around (Ax2x-AxKx, 6x7x,QQ+,AxKy) or even more, which are at least 84 combos.
If this range was linear, then u should consider a wider value range PF. (around 42 combos)
So callin3bet vs a wider 3bet range, i think is bad coz ur 4bet range has only AK,pp for value and will often be an exploitative 3bet/fold.

Flattin AK in position is good sometimes but not everytime, so im not sayin u played it bad. but u play it more as a bluffcatch hand than a polarise hand in that case. And i think ur callin range PF must be more arbritary than a standard play.

w/o info i think fold is the best play,
1) coz not sure he will 3bet+3barrel with that wide range PF
2) Playin Ace of spade as a bluff is really bad here coz it blocks a tons of bluffs
3) u always have a bluffcatch hand in Qx area + value range and fold equity didn't change much.

Hi all and thanks for posting this.

With my words i would say that it will always depends of : how many direct pot odds we have addin with or without implied odds on a present decision, and how implied odds on future street could influence/compense our EVcall on the present street.

Exemple : hero has 78o vs AK (effectifs stacks 150 each) and card exposed for hero on the turn
board : A562 (pot 100) equity (8/44) = 18,18%

AK gonna always put all money on the river, 78 could fold if no draws comes up.AK PSB on the turn which gives (neutral EVcall turn would have been 100)
- EVcall-fold w/o implied odds = 300 * 18,18% + 0% x 50 = 54,54
- EVcall-call w/ implied odds = 18,18 % x 300 + 100% x 50 =104,54

So without implied odds we cant justify a call, with implied odds we are dependant how often he does gonna put the remaining stacks. In my case is 100%, too much optimist...
If vilain check/fold more than
18,18%x300 + X % x 50 = Ev neutral turn = 100
So Vilain needs to bet more than X > 90,92% with his all remaining of stacks (50) on next street to have EVcall turn w/implied odds > 0

It's different that the example that u gave. In the case of big fish we are made hands vs made hands in a perfect polarise (nuts/airs) vs bluffcatch game. In my case, we are made hands vs draws. slightly different coz made hands vs made hands have both always showdown value on river...

for this formula :
b = 1-(2/3)^n between n = 1 and n =3 It's only right with ur assumptions with GTO frequencies on each street (foldin 33%). But if ur opponent does fold less than that then u give him odds to make profitable call(float). Obviously, if Vilain call 100% on each street is better to get n = 1 (maybe 0) than n = 3 coz as u said u give him much more compensation than u should by check/fold. I think it's what we called reverse implied odds... So n must be a variable of frequencies on MDF per street.

Last point, I'm readin slowly and hardly MOP, on chapter 7 figure 7.1, it talks about it.
Bet's EV overall function of the pot size, depends of 2 functions linear,
1) K1X + C1 (avec K1 > 0) direct pot odds
2) K2X + C2 (K2 < 0) implied odds on future street

It shows how the sizebet could increase or decrease ur EVoverall :
So u can start calculate :
- the critical amount of the pot sizebet where ur EV start to decrease (when 1) = 2) X=...)
- The region of amounts where u will have 2 pot size for the same EV's
- Maximum pot size to keep EVoverall > 0

PS: with some algebra u could find K and C, of course im'not using this yet at my micro level but it helps me to understand the effect of the sizebet and implied odds

Hi,
I'm not playin those limits, but i theorytically struggle with weak SD and bluffcatchin regions. So i could tell bullshit but i'm open to debate.
For the hand, i think the play is fine imo, with this turn and blockernuts river. But the action is good maybe not the reason.

Maybe...
U bet too much with those fuckin hands: "i'll making fold what i beat and gettin call by better."
1) How often i should bet my draws proportionally to my made hands?
2) How often i'm gonna hit my draws propotionally to my frequency?

I think u often check one street here with some madehands for bluffcatch. Because it's better to be vs his bettin range (w/+bluffs) than his callin range. Exemple :88-TT? If not, i think u are not maximising ur EV with some hands.

OTT: Hands like QQ- could checkback to call river, if not, u often checkback/shutdown on K river. So Vilain will expect u shutdown some made hands on one street.
So ur 3 barrel range for value is not that wide.

1) optimal bluff frequency, u must try to arrive river with a perfect balance range.
alpha x Value hands = bluffs hands
alpha = 50% when PSB so 2/3 value and 1/3 bluffs

So if u arrive river with more than 1/3 of missdraws, u gonna have too much bluffs in ur 3barrel range or u must checkback/fold with some of them which it sucks...
If u open 600 combos on BTN, u could see than u gonna hit at least one made hands +/-32% (cfr crev). it gives 14% only for backdoorFD+overcards. So i think in general bettin more than 55% could suck.
So we are agree that if u add some AK and gutshot or straight draw, u have too much draws but with decent equity.

2) Even if u have a decent equity overall, how often u gonna realise it by only 3 barrelin?
I'm struggle to see if it's correct to say that if i have an overall equity with my draws = X% and that my proportion of draws is > X% than it's a kind of autosuicide.
I've should better to split some of those hands in some other ranges to keep some % draws < X%
Like checkback, checkraise, bet which is gonna involve +/- the same amount than 3 barrel. but not generate the same FE.
or u could simply checkbackdown coz u have some SD.

So i think here is the play is good because of the turns out. Otherwise in general, bettin too much for protection ur weak SD value hands instead to try to have the cheapest SD and turn medium hands into bad bluffs is not the right play.

GL

Hi
when i put this range (7x9x,22,77,99,As2s,As3s,As4s,As5s,6s8s,4s5s) vs AA on the flop u have 25% equity and if no draws come out river u have 43% equity. if u add more weak hands like TT-KK then u are way ahead. It means with TT-JJ u will often be underdog.

What is funny here is the fact that he can't really represent TT+ here which is bad for AA on this board coz his raisin range has no more made hands that u can beat

Thanks for posting, it helps me as well.

fwiw, i have 2 cents to give. I've seen a hand between IKE (A7) vs OTB (QJ) on board T86T2, IKE x/c, mindonkbet(2BB)/call, x/c. IKE won and sent a poopoo smiley... Exactly the same line u are talking about.
So i wonder why with my skinny level IKE founds it was a poopoo play. So here's my 2 cents theory.

dynamic capped vs uncapped range = dynamic caller vs lastbettor. So some flop board is gonna fit more the uncapped range(A,K board, high board) and some board is gonna fit more the capped range (medium board). Let's say favorable or unfavorable dependin of how many value combos in our range.
Can we transpose the concept of donbetting turns to 3-bet pots ? I would say yes but range is more narrow.

mindonkbet/call range turn is logically tighter/stronger than check/call
U donkbettin/call turn with : hands with weak SD, (top)draws or induce a raise. Let's say for protection hand/equity or value.
When u do that for protection (hands with weak SD or draws), i think u expect ur opponent does not overbetish the initial pot.
So in that case, check/call a pot size bet involves the "same" amount than bet/callin but ur range is more stronger (with more bluffcatchin hands) and vilain will checkback (shutdown) more often the river and polarise more a narrow valuerange when he bet. Especially when a draw comes out river.
Which is good for our weak SD hands and we have implied odds with our draws.
in ur first exemple i think he could checkback AA here.

would a small lead make sense here with our whole range, or even leading big with our Qx/bluffs ? If ur plan is donkbet/call with ur whole range I would say no, because u will arrive river with an unbalanced value/bluffs range when no draws come out river.
Obviously u must respect the optimal bluff frequency

Hmmm, i would EZ fold here on the river, u can have a lot of 2 pair as well in ur range and there are so many straight possible here. Besides, u have the Ac which means less bluff in his range.
I don't understand why u don't 5 bet PF or check raise the flop.

GL dude

fwiw,
i'm not sure if im 3bettin 100% AJo vs UTG open, depends of vilain...
Flop, QT does hit pretty well both range, and u must expect from him to continue with more than 70%. So as Samu said,: checkback flop... Then i would raise turn and bluff river

But i think that u can have a leak in ur game by putting too much of ur premium hands with hot equity in ur bettin/raisin range. It's not bad but it means that ur defensin range is weaker++. Because it tends to says : Hi, im trying to realise my hot equity immediately instead of building value on each street. For me, i think u bet for protection too much and u must have a cbet flop stats > 55%, am I right?
If it's the case, then i think u have a leak.

PS: As played, i don't see what made hands could 3bet-cbet/checkback on this board.
Perhaps im wrong as well :-)

GL

Dude, are u a member of RIO? If not, u must subscribe, it would help u to get a better approach of the optimal bluffin frequencies. Because what u have done is wrong...

Fwiw,
PF: if u know that i can 3bet KJo then 4bet otherwise i like ur play
Flop: ok
Turn : Ks It's a bad card for ur range because he must think that u don't have AK,JJ+, so not sure u have enough FE here for raisin.

4 bet/fold, checkcall,checkraise seems a better a line.

I'm not especially agree with that, it is true, if and only if, Vilain doesn't not have a decent donkbetin or checkraisin range, so it could be very exploitative (by having 95% check range OTF). I do think that some people can't handle to play OOP without having initiative.

But "good players" start to donkbet OTF or OTT and force Vilain to have a callin/raisin range instead of a bettin/checkback range. Espacially vs Vilain who does not polarise enough and raise most of the time (or always) in Valuetown postflop.
It means u force them to be more transparent by playin more their value range (raisin or callin) than their Value/bluff range (bet/check pot control).
In some spots u will put the same amount to see next the street by donkbettin or checkcallin...

FWIW,

Why are u callin on the flop? i don't mean it's bad but what's ur plan at that point?
Because i think it's somethin bad if u rarely donkbet or check/raise to take the intiative on that spot.
My opinion is :
Flop:
He doesn't expected to u to have a range including (AK,AQ,JJ+)
He expected to u to raise flop : 2 pairs + monster draw
and to call very often with a lot of pairs and gutshots or backdoor straight for tweaking on the turn.

I would have fold the flop, You don't have any backdoor flush and the Qd will not be a good card for you. A ton of cards on the turn gonna be scary : diamond, 6,7,8,Q,K. And he has some blockers to your backdoor straight. You don't have much Fold equity to raise and if u get called ur range are crushed. And u rarely have (AQ+,JJ+).
I'm agree to fold 100% of the time with that hand on that spot would be awful, but call 100% flop is also bad.
That's why u need to take the inititave if u decide to non fold ur hand for protection and to avoid ur opponent to realise his equity.
In your case, i would have donkbet turn and check river, because his raisin value range is really small, give up air, and call most of the time, which is good for our hand.

On the river, i could call or fold...
Because he has more (AQ+,JJ+) and a wide range, first his value range is wider than yours. He can afford to have a bluffin range wider than yours. Second it will depends of how wide is his bluffin range turn, which is the same on the river (missdraws) and the only range that u beat.
He Never big bet river with less than a made hand Q9 in value, u can have a lot of small 2 pair or weak aces
His bluffin range is all the Ten combos, and with KdXd. Of course he could bluff some hand like 86 but that would be a bad play from him on the turn if he's bluffin too much regards to the fold equity.

That's why i prefer donkbet turn, i would have isolated better his range for same price and same situation river. His bluffin range river would have been slightly smaller.

Sorry for my bad english and my 2cents first post