JRthekid32

Would be interested in how this is played from GTO perspective, but I think given pool tendencies this is probably standard

Agree with large sizing, large enough to threaten stacks on the river.

From a GTO perspective we probably don’t have enough bluffs available to us to balance value betting this thinly.

From an exploitative perspective most players at this stake will make the mistake of over calling and underbluffing, so I think it’s perfectly fine to bet small and look for a call from 99 and 65s and the like. While he can still have strong hands, not raising flop and turn does discount them enough that I think we win >50% when called (again, when betting small). Easy fold if raised.

Looks very reasonable to me. I’m not sure I really like the idea of xr on a blank turn, I think villains range just dominates ours too much. I think with our strong hands we probably just want to cc and protect our overall weak range.

However, with the turn Q which we have a lot more of than villain, we certainly get to do some bluffing. Personally I like donking this turn better than xr because I think a lot of regs are going to check back their Ax and under pairs on this turn, which are the hands we’re looking to put to the test. When we let him bet again, I think his range narrows to strong hands that aren’t folding and air (that were ahead of), so we have less FE than we’d like. Obv any spades FD is a good bluff, but we likely can’t bluff all of our gut shots otherwise we will be overbluffing. So for KJhh and the like I guess I would randomize whether to bluff or not.

@13:13 when you raise turn with AA, what would your plan be if villain reraises you? My suspicion with Ad you block a lot of bluffs so should fold? However it sounded like you referenced flopping the nuts, although maybe you were talking about something else. Thanks!

I’d rather 3b or fold pre.

When villain checks a flop like this that is normally cbet, it’s almost always a medium strength hand like QQ and lower pp, Jx, sometimes bad king but doesn’t have many of those, and occasional top set. Almost never air that will fold. Because of that, I rarely stab with air and really only bluff my best bluffs (here maybe QTdd or something) and value that wants 3 streets. Our hand doesn’t need much protection as Q is the only card we don’t really wanna see.

Your sizing is fine if betting a merged range like you are. I agree that better river is likely a little thin, although I wouldn’t be afraid of getting raised, that would be an easy fold. I just think your EV when called is not great.

this xr by the villain in a multi way pot after you cbet an A high flop and got a call is a super strong move and I think even for fairly aggressive regs there's not gonna be too many bluffs except maybe 4h5h for the combo draw. The Ah on the flop significantly reduces how many FDs he can have. You also have to worry that the button could be slowplaying a big hand as well, so exploitatively I probably make a nitty fold on the flop.

Preflop is good although I see most people recommending bigger sizing as we want more FE when oop.

On the flop I think I would include this in a cc range since I don’t think this flop allows us to bet our whole range. As you said, we do have overpairs but we also have a lot of AK and AQ. Villains has a lot of PPs and SCs that are doing a lot better on this flop, so I’d say likely overall this is a better flop for villain.

As played, I think we should be barreling the K as I think we have a lot more K than villain

Probably depends on what your 3b range looks like. The more bluffs you have on the turn, the thinner you should barrel for value. If you’ve got KJo here then you presumably have AJo and ATo, along with AsXs. That’s a lot of combos to barrel with, so I think you’ll want to barrel for value with any K and probably AQ as well.

I think you could honestly fold the flop probably. If V is a good reg then they know this flop smashes your CC 3b range, and is cbetting into 2 players anyway, which is a super strong play. It’s optimistic to hope V has AJ or AK that isn’t hh. I’d say 90% of the time you’re up against AA, KK, JJ, TT and AhKh on the flop and can just ditch it.

I think so. 44-66 will call again, and our hand benefits from equity denial for overcards that floated the flop.

as played, I can’t see the villain having any bluffs and I highly doubt they VB anything worse than 88. Could consider a 1/3 to 1/2 pot merged range bet on the river, trying to get thin value from 44-66 but I think this would be a bit optimistic. As played, I think c/f is correct.

I think you played it fine. Since the SPR is so low I might just donk shove the turn to maximize FE against QQ and JJ. Can’t see us having really any FE after villain barrels the turn, which I doubt they are doing with complete air.

I think the logic of flat calling this preflop matters for post flop play. If we are flatting preflop instead of 4betting because we want to protect our flop calling range, then I suspect we mainly want to call. It also probably matters whether you raise your draws on this flop. if you do, it is ok to raise this hand but if not then you definitely don't want to. also how wide you suspect villain to be 3betting you pre matters. Although i don't play these stakes exactly, i don't expect a real wide range for the SB 3better, which means likely doesn't have a lot of draws on the flop, which means we don't have all that much to protect against. Villain is going to have a lot of AJ, AQ, and JJ, QQ, KK that we dont really want to raise the flop against.

I think betting entire range on the flop makes sense. checking because villain is aggro depends on what kind...if he frequently stabs and gives up that is great...if he frequently applies multiple streets of pressure to presumed weakness then that is very bad with this holding. if he is more of the second, i would think betting would make even more sense.

On the turn I think villain has likely polarized his range with the larger bet sizing, so the absolute value of our hand matters less than bluff catching ability. he is not making this bet with 88 or A7. I would expect Kx+, sets, spade FD, and maybe a few 98s and A2s/A4s. With red 99, we unblock spades and wheel draws so seems like a reasonable bluff catching hand. TT and JJ would be better as they block KT and KJ and unblock 98s. calling range probably depends on if you have any weak Kx that you 3b and cc flop with.

If we call turn and see a river bet, villain is again likely even more polarized after betting 3 streets AND continuing when the only real draw came in. It would be very unlikely to see villain bet KT or KJ again on the river. so basically i suspect were looking at flushes, sets, KQ, AK, and then a couple combos of bluffs (98 and A2/A4s most likely). at this point to bluff catch i think we would want a K, but the value of the kicker doesn't really matter since again i don't think he is VB 3 streets with anything less than AK. I'd rather have K8s than KTh.

should point out that if he really is loose and passive, 3betting his UTG open in this spot is probably even less ideal than normal.

I would also add QQ to villains range. Since your 3b is pretty strong considering his UTG open, many players will not 4b QQ here. As played, seems like KQ or QQ are villains most likely holdings. with a FD possible, many players are gonna xr the flop with their sets. if he was going to bluff, doing so on the flop would seem to make more sense (especially since he can't have combo-draws) so i would discount that even more.

If he is bluffing, what is he bluffing with? probably just lower flush draws. if he is doing this, i think he is going to give up on non club rivers, so you could just show your hand down. therefore, i don't think we need to worry about over folding the river because bluff frequency is just going to be super low. i haven't done the calculation, but if you are correct that we have close to the EV needed to call then that seems like the better play.

I would be careful about how much weight you put into seeing villain spew 1x. it could have been a particular dynamic with another player, they could have been tilted, etc. most players in the pool are not bluffing here, and I think it would take more history than you have on villain to expect different.

pre: i like the 3b, if villain is aggressive reg as stated they are likely to be raising the limp reasonably wide. also calling is likely to put us in a 3way pot, which AJo oop does not like very much.
flop: agree with few posters that say we can bet range here. we have a range advantage with AA-QQ, and also lower sets are discounted by the fact that sb raised a limper pre (most will just complete with 55, maybe 50/50 with 88). believe villains range to be weighted mostly to pairs 99-JJ and good broadways.
turn: this card is not good for our range nor is it good for our hand, so checking back and essentially giving up seems best. the problem you raised about trouble calling the river should be dealt with by checking back more good/decent hands on the turn, not by doing something different with this particular holding. We likely only barrel diamonds on the turn as bluffs, which depending on your preflop 3b range in this situation likely isn't all that many combos (most people don't 3b super wide with a limper in the pot). if we don't have that many bluffing hands, we should reduce the number of value betting hands. So maybe we VB AA-QQ and AQ on the turn, check back KQ and 99-JJ.
River: regardless of our turn check back range it is always going to be hard to protect against the river lead, but i think that is ok. it is hard to find bluffs in villains range here, as the only real draw on the flop was 67 and that got there. most people aren't going to turn their low pairs like 33 or 56 into bluffs on the river (although maybe they should) so I think it is very ok for us not to be able to defend this as much as is "optimal" because people aren't going to be taking advantage of us in that way.

Tough spot for sure. I think on the flop, OOP pretty deep against 2 players who both have a nuts advantage against you on a low and wet flop, I think checking range would be pretty reasonable and probably what I'd prefer. If you do have a betting range, this probably belongs in it due to its vulnerability to overcards. AA and KK probably make better checks than JJ.

As played, on the river villains betting line really represents 5x and bluffs. Combo wise, there are likely many more missed draws than 5x depending on what flop calling range is. Large river shoves against unknown are definitely weighted towards value though. I think we have less than 50% equity but not sure how much lower and if we have enough to call. From a GTO perspective, I also don't know what our range looks like when played this way. It seems like we are either folding everything or calling everything, neither of which is very good. AA block A5s, but thats the only hand I can think of with meaningful blockers. If I checked range on the flop, I think I would call AA-QQ on the river and fold my missed draws and lower pairs. Could certainly be convinced otherwise though...

If you do some calculations regarding your equity on the flop when he calls you, I think you'll find that it is a negative EV play overall. I don't have access to my computer with flopzilla right now, otherwise I would run some numbers myself, but thats my sense from running similar situations many times before and listening to players much better than myself.

The goal is not trying to win a really big pot in this hand. The goal is to try to play in a way that nets us the most money in all possible run outs. You are right that you build a bigger pot and therefore win a bigger pot when you hit, but you also lose more when you lose (like in this hand). If the hands that will call your flop bet have >50% equity against you, which I think they would, you just can't value bet profitably. And if the villain doesnt fold much, you can't bluff either. However, IF you have >50% equity against his calling range, go ahead and bet for value. I think it comes down to that.

I think it's crucial to know what kind of fish we are dealing with and how sticky they are. Even with a good combo draw, if they are never folding the flop then betting the flop in a vacuum is probably not the best play. If they are the type to call with garbage on the flop and fold turn way too much, or call flop and turn and fold river way too much, then betting flop planning to double or triple barrel when we miss makes sense. However, given normal player pools at this stake, I would need a very solid read that a player does this to make that play. That player is very rare. The player that will call down all 3 streets way too wide is much more common, and planning a double or triple barrel against that player is a big mistake.

Given what you said about this player, I think betting flop and checking turn is probably the worst line you can take since he can easily bet you off the best hand on the river. Also, I have heard multiple very good coaches caution against the idea of building a pot in case you hit a draw, even a good one. The vast majority of the time, it is beneficial to put in as little money as possible before hitting a draw to minimize losses when you don't. The reason we semi bluff with draws is to get people to fold better hands as well as to disguise our holdings, both with draws and with value. If a player doesn't fold enough and doesn't hand read, then semi bluffing is just burning money. Against players who call way too much, or just spew randomly as it seems this player does, we make money by waiting patiently to actually hit good hands and then crushing them when we do. Its boring but it works.

With the nuts disadvantage, positional disadvantage (which is increased on a wet board) we could strongly consider checking entire range on this flop, which is what I favor. I don't think its wrong to have a cbetting range, but I think the hand plays better with a range check. could certainly create x/r and x/c range from there.

I generally think differently about having the As in our hand, it makes me more inclined to play passively because it benefits less from protection against the FD. A hand like QhQc benefits from protection against FD as well as overcards, so I'm more inclined to play that combo aggressively. I'm not positive this is right, but I have heard multiple RIO coaches suggest this strategy and it makes sense to me.

As played, turn decision is definitely gross. player pool does tend to be passive, but you have shown weakness with the flop check/call and its hard to know whats going through the villains head. Depending how you construct flop check/call range, were pretty near the top of it which should push us towards a call. I think I favor turn call and folding to a big river bet, but its close.

Agree. I'm assuming you lost this hand which is why you are posting it but this is an automatic call.

As played, I agree turn and river are pretty standard folds. I think flop decision is based heavily on what we know about the villain, and if we don't know much, our understanding of the pool of players we are playing against. Most people at microstakes who are donking an A high flop for less than half pot, especially with a FD out there, are trying to "see where they're at" in which case we really like raising the flop. This board is great for us since our range has all sets and AK and villain generally won't have AA or many AK combos, so we'll be raising for value a lot. Of course raising the flop can open us up to getting 3b off our equity, but this is much less likely after the small flop bet. A small donk bet to induce a raise would be a more sophisticated thought process than we would usually see here, especially in someone who would donk a board that really favors our range. I would favor flatting K and maybe Q high FDs due to extra benefit of implied odds with nut flushes, and semibluff raising lower ones.

I think looking for reasons to fold with an overpair in a 4b pot is probably a losing endeavor the vast majority of the time. On the flop we've got an overpair with an SPR a little over 3, there is really no reason to be thinking about anything besides how best to get the money in IMO. Since it is a connected board, I'd favor $12-$14 flop bet and then turn shove. Yes we're going to be beat by sets, straights, and some 2 pair but those hands are pretty discounted by the preflop 3b, most people will just flat those. Also, if villain has the hands that beat us, they also have JT, 9T, and 56 which we would really prefer the strong flop bet and turn shove line. Villain also has most combos of QQ, TT, and many AJ. I would be interested to hear any reasons you don't like this line, though.

Also, small potatoes but I think 4b to $10 or $10.50 instead of $9 makes villains preflop decision a little harder.

This smells like a set or straight all day. When you 3b, people will always put you on AK. nobody is trying to get you off AK on A high board in a 3b pot. Agree with river fold, especially with the sizing.

Unless you have you a really strong, personal read on a player, I think folding this hand at 10NL would be a big mistake. 200 hands online is not nearly enough evidence to make this decision. I think you need to be careful about assuming that your opponents think the same way that you do. Most knowledgeable players who post on RIO would not slow play a set on this wet board, but I don't think we have enough information to assume that this opponent will not, especially when we are very close to the top of our range. If this call is a mistake, it is a VERY small mistake. But if you're wrong about the villain's tendencies, which is very easy to do online, folding could be a HUGE mistake. Not only could you see sets and random 2 pairs, at 10NL you could see things as silly as AA.

To answer your question, when there are rivers that you feel you should be folding but can't get yourself to do it, do your best to plan each street before it happens. On the turn, you should have a good idea about what rivers you want to see and not, which rivers you are going to bet or check, etc. Before you make a bet, you should already determine whether or not you are planning to fold to a raise. Setting this decision in stone before it happens can take a lot of the emotion out of the decision and keeping you from making a play that intellectually you know you shouldn't be making. It can take time to do this, especially if you are newer. If you are finding time to be a factor, stay away from the fast play tables and do lots of studying away from the table to practice. Don't be too hard on yourself, we've all been there.

I'd prefer a x/c on the flop. Against a good player its beneficial to have FDs in x/c and x/r ranges. Hands with some showdown value, like this exact hand, make good x/c combos IMO. Hand certainly isn't strong enough to x/r for pure value.

On the river, I would prefer a bet/fold. I can see a number of hands that will call a bet but that won't bet themselves when checked to. I don't think you need to worry about being bluff raised, so no tough decision to make. When we check, I don't think we need to worry about being bluffed. Villain probably doesn't chase a SD on the turn diamond, so probably doesn't have much air on the river. most players at this level, especially if they are a "nit," aren't going to be turning made hands into bluffs. The only real question is if villain could be value betting worse. When you check the river, even a pretty nitty player could reasonably expect to get some value with the Qd so I think we need to call.

I also do not usually raise AJo from blinds, especially if close to 200bb deep with a limper. Even assuming a skill edge, I think the positional edge is just too much to make up with this hand.

Agree with larger flop bet.

If we decide that we want to get all the money in (which I think we should), then it doesn't help to consider hands that beat us. It does matter how we play against FDs, Ax, and random bluffs. When you raise limpers pre and then cbet on an A high flop into 2 players, only the absolute craziest players would raise you with random air. We certainly don't have any evidence to assume that, so we should heavily discount that possibility and essentially ignore it. Therefore, I would mainly consider what we want to do when he has Ax and FDs. If he has a FD I think we want to 3b the flop to get more money in while we have the equity advantage. Also, when we just flat the flop and check the turn, it allows villain to check and get a free river if they want. If villain has Ax and decides to raise the flop with it, they are either doing it for value or to "see where they are at." if doing it for value, then we want to 3b for value because we want to get the money in before any scary cards can fall and convince either villain or us not to put more money in. If they are trying to "see where they are at" they might fold to a flop 3b, but they probably won't put a ton of money in anyway so it doesn't help much to try to keep them in the hand. I think the benefits of flop 3b when villain has a FD or Ax that they like outweighs this.