Candide

that's a pretty dangerous one to try to 5 bet bluff to exploit...some people will just pretend to think 5 seconds. they might also be looking in pop-ups and decide it's ok to go with a 4 bet with a hand like TT or 99 that might normally be a call for him

here's one for ya: (edit...there are a lot of "?" marks hah...hope this doesn't disqualify me)

since you are a winner and a stat guy...

when you are playing, if you spot a super-huge leak what's your gameplan to exploit this frequency-wise and how do you keep track of it?

for example, say someone has a fold to 3 bet in a certain spot of 75%. (this is actually somewhat common for a few mid-stackers who open in early position). so 3 betting any 2 cards should show profit (esp vs a shortie where you can make your sizing smaller). would you just 3 bet a TON of the time here? or try to increase your frequency so it's higher than normal but imperceptible to the villain. So say for example EP opens and folds to 3 bet 75% of the time...you are in the BB. Your overall BB vs EP 3 bet is say 6%. Would you 3 bet 30% of the time? and see how long you can get away with it? Or 3 bet 11% of the time and hope he never catches on?

another example would be say a guy folds to c/r on the button 70% of the time and your normal c/r is 15%...would you start c/r 40% until he gets fed up and does something silly? or would you c/r 22% and hope he never catches on that you are increasing you frequency vs him only?

and if so, how do you mentally keep track of this so you don't "blow your cover" that you discovered this leak?

@bigblue: I'm not sure I'm feeling the ranges you assigned...I really don't understand why the SB would ever ever ever have TT+ here. First I'd assume he's raising QQ+ here 100% of the time, JJ+ 80%+? TT at least half the time? (I'd be 3 betting it 100% of the time vs a fish in this spot...maybe this guy is ultra tight/passive though?) you say he might call to "keep you in"...but why would he want to call here with KK and let you tag along in position on him really deep? that could be a disaster for him. 

Then ok...let's say he does happen to have TT or JJ. wouldn't he be scared to raise those in case you had a Queen? you're in position the rest of the hand...if I was villain with TT, I'd just sort of hope your (villain's) TT was good vs the fish and you (hero) just folded.

when he raises i'm putting him almost squarely on a Queen (or some sort of draw that is going to shut down and not put another $ in the pot anyway).

go pokerstove how 99 does vs QT on QQ9. you're not as far ahead as you may think. I think it's time to build the pot right here and just hope he has a queen and put in a nice sized raise (or hope he has a nut flush draw or JTdd or something and makes the wrong call against your hand). you can make a case for calling 100bb deep and hoping for a low card that doesn't boat him or something...but this deep, I'd get busy right away building a pot. don't worry about him getting scared and folding a queen...it won't happen.

folding isn't the worst thing in the world here either...i'd prob shrug and call though just because you are deeper and in position the rest of the hand. you sort of open yourself up to the BB re-raising and losing the call money..and you're going to be folding the turn 80% of the time. So it's really not an amazing situation and I would rule out raising right away.

doubt you'll make much $$ if you hit...so nothing is really "disguised"...and an Ace or 5h might be bad news. (the ace could also be a total action killer if you are up against KK or something.)

not sure how many tables you play, but if it's more than 5- 6, your hud is going to converge a lot faster than your note taking. there are tons of hands going on that you are missing while you focus on hands you're in. and there's no way you are going to remember little nuances of players at 100nl...there are just too many players. plus if you are playing a bunch of tables as you're taking a note or looking at a note you're missing action...i'm not discouraging you from doing that but it seemed like you were overwhelmed with too many spots where you don't have the reads you are used to...just my opinion on how to ease that a touch.

you can just take into account the sample size...put the number of hands right on your hud...or in HEM2 there is a dim feature.

i dunno...sounds like you should worry less about making specific reads and eeking out the absolute most EV...just simplify and get back to your higher games and then go back to that.

start by just playing solid and make your goal to move back up in stakes again...yes you will give up some EV by not knowing every single player but that's impossible...yes you will miss a spot to c/r turn when a guy's range is totally imbalanced..

what I would do is just play your cards / situations etc...basically everything Tom said..just play solid and move back up.

if you have free "time" in between hands you can start by focusing on the the guy to your direct right on your tables...that is prob the best person to learn about. this way you're not focused on everyone everywhere. your brain will blow up doing that :) hah.

you also might want to expand your hud to add more stats so you don't need super-solid reads based on history to get by all the time.

i have various vs hero stats scattered around in my popups (and a few on my hud)...

i will say this...I have the vs hero stats directly next to their overall stats...so whatever vs hero ones you find interesting, I'd do that so you can compare them in real time and not have to hover over several popups (which is hard to do while playing live).

a few of the useful ones i've found are 3bet positional ones, fold to 3 bet OTB, fold to 4 bet. I have the cbet ones but they seem to usually be really close to their overall cbets anyway...and the sample size you get is going to be small and their cbet percentages will vary a ton from one board to another. i still have it in but don't look at it much.

i'd say if you were going to use any, the 3 bet vs hero would be nice. sometimes you feel like someone is picking on you and 3 betting you a ton...then you look and he's 3 betting you 8% and his overall is 10% or something.

the positional ones are nice because sometimes you see a huge deviation from his normal percentages...which probably means he has a stat that you fold there (or he happened to have hands obv). so that's something you can combat easily.

I have a few others I really like a lot...but I'd say just as you play and notice maybe someone is doing something too much against you to the point where it's hampering your style, add the stat then...see the spots you would find it useful.

if it's helpful for you at all, I had a report done by alan jackson called pokermetrics where he compares your data to "winning regs" data.

He has winning regs as -18 bb/100 in the SB and - 34bb/100 in the BB

so I'd say prob shoot for that

edit: whoops..whysoeasy already wrote the same above :) hah. +1 to what he said then.

thanks for the recommendation...just watched an Adrian Milroy video and it was exactly what I was looking for...really great coach you picked there. (will check out the others after I'm done watching his stuff a few times)

You don't necessarily have to get to showdown to win. You can raise turn or river leads. You can bet if it gets checked to you. You can hit an ace. 

If he's comfortable messing around on flops, get to a turn and play there. 

No reason to worry about being balanced vs this guy when he has such a huge imbalance himself.  

vs an unknown this is a slam dunk cbet here with a high frequency. villain should not have many 3s or 7s. He prob won't have AK, and possibly not KQ. I doubt he'll have less than K9s. Where as hero can have all the way down to K2s, a ton of spades, or even better.

27% is an extremely high check/raise. I'd say even like over 15% is getting into the high area...anything over 20% and I'm def altering my strategy big time. I would guess it's even higher in BB vs BTN situations and even higher on these types of boards that people just auto cbet. 

just don't cbet this guy much imo :) or have hands you can fight back with. Just keep in mind he's probably used to this situation so I wouldn't be bet / 3 betting total trash either. You might just have to get in KJ here or something you aren't used to doing (not recommending it...just saying play around a little and figure out what's best...maybe he does fold to 3 bets a lot? only one way to find out I guess).

I would probably also tighten up OTB (unless he folds a lot...you didn't mention his 3 bet %)...and I would also 3x it. If you are going to open tighter, think 3x is better ... but that's a whole other conversation I guess..

I would not cbet this vs a guy who c/r so much.  You have showdown value and you can just bet a ton of turns. I'd be cbetting either hands that can fight back (call or raise) to a xr or total trash like j8hh maybe

"there must be at least 1 bluff combo included such as A2suited" <--- you wrote this and now you're counting all A2

ok i'm a little lost at this point :) not sure exactly what's going on.  but I highly doubt most people are opening UTG and UTG +1 and then 4 bet bluffing a CO 3 bet that frequently. 

and if they do happen to 4 bet this much, they aren't getting it in preflop...they will just fold when you jam, no?

obv I don't mind that you disagree. there may either be typos in your post plus I wasn't clear though

I was talking about these positions only (initial raiser being UTG or UTG+1)...and I am assuming a 14-18% opening range. If someone is opening any higher, I will def consider having AK in my 3/5 bet range. once the initial raiser gets into the CO i'm 3 betting and stacking off over 90% of the time I'd guess.

and I meant I might use AK to "bluff" 3-bet that certain specific player only (and it's not common...I just came up with one example off the top of my head)...meaning I would 3 bet but fold to a 4 bet. My reason for doing this would be if I thought he was just going to fold a lot, or call with hands like 99, TT (or even AK) and make life really easy for me postflop in a 3 bet pot with position. Vs someone super tight, it's not going to even be that amazing of a hand to cold call if he's going to barrel tightly and just give up on A or K high flops...plus you risk it going multi-way, etc etc..AK is awesome vs guys who are aggro and are going to bet AQ 3 times on A high flops...or try to bet A high boards with nothing twice hoping you missed...or bet KQ twice on J446 when you aren't folding, etc etc..

yeah I can't imagine 4 betting AK then folding...even at 130bb.

I feel like my edge is going to be higher playing these postflop in SRP rather than messing around and stacking off preflop. Part of this may be due to me just personally trying to have an extra tight stack-off range preflop as part of my game plan. 

I'm not sure why but I always thought AK was a lot more of a dog to QQ+ & AK than your sim shows...even with a bluff combo. I'm not sure how it's even possible you are 50%. if you're 50/50ish vs AK, and like 45% vs QQ, and crushed by KK, AA, how can you be 50%? is it possible you included all A2s and A2o combos or something? or maybe that board has something to do with the results? I'm not super used to using that program.

cliffs: I'd just call the AK here preflop :) hah

well it was sort of off topic but there are def times you can use AK to bluff with. It's pretty rare and I don't do it much but I can think of a few spots off hand. The main one being a really tight guy opens from EP and say this tight guy doesn't 4 bet much. Like there are guys with a 2% 4 betting range here even with a really small Raise First. You can 3 bet them with AK and just fold to a 4 bet. In this case it doesn't really matter if he calls or folds a lot...it's fine if he is calling because it'll be really easy to play this postflop...if he folds even better. 

AK is actually a really sweet hand to play postflop in a SRP especially as the caller. You can float almost every board, he will bluff (and value bet with worse) cards that hit you, and just in general, you have the two best cards in the deck...it's pretty hard to play it badly in a SRP

Fine you can argue that AK is in the 4 bet range of even the tightest nits...but I think the money you win by him folding (or calling and playing fit or fold) overcomes the times you fold when you would have chopped. And don't forget if you get in AK vs QQ+, AK, you're not flipping, you're a dog.

agreed...you prob don't have to fold hardly any flops. dry with a K or super wet (especially midling card) flops, I'd be folding. J-high flops would be my borderline.

hopefully you have some sort of read to go off of postflop. and yes, playing OOP without hitting the flop is never easy.

like I said before (some disagree) I don't see anything wrong with using AQ to 4 bet bluff though if you look at a guy and think you'll just be totally lost postflop...especially if you have a stat that he's folding to 4 bets a reasonable amount. (the amount he will fold to 4 bets will go up if you use AQ since you block several of his nut combos...also if you have a low 4 bet % yourself, he'll just have to fold).

i hate everything except for preflop :)

I'm checking this board on the flop or betting it really big (75-85%) with all of my hands. (i'm prob checking with this hand as you have basically nothing. yes I see the one backdoor draw to a 4 flush that isn't the nuts hah)

given that he called the flop, the turn smashes him...I'm already on to the next hand. If I had a 7 or flush draw or any sort of hope of winning this, I'd be hitting the pot button and then moving down a click or two.

river changes nothing and he already called twice...I mean in theory if you bet the turn, you sorta should bluff the river, but there are now two missed flush draws and gutshots...I dunno...I'd just give up. you have too many bluffs and you're not gonna be value betting KK here or something.

alex: I personally prefer just calling preflop even at 100bb to an unknown. at 130bb I am almost def calling. if it gets a bunch deeper you can 3 bet and call a 4 bet I guess. I'm not a fan of stacking off in these positions with anything other than KK and AA (even 100 bb deep). 

that's readless...if I had stats / reads that this was ok, I'd do what I thought was best even if it meant doing something unconventional (won't say what because I'll prob get flamed hah).

every time I hear Reid talk I disagree with everything he says. For example at minute 1 he says since AK blocks AA and KK if you get all in preflop 200bb deep, it's unlikely you are going to see AA or KK. 

I mean...I get the point but if you get it all in 200bb deep, it's unlikely you see KK actually...you are gonna see AA most of the time hah. I don't care what you are blocking.

I would just treat it as any other player...spot their leaks and try to exploit while playing your A Game. I don't think people will be able to answer a question about how a bot might have a leak in a certain spot...whoever programmed it will be different than other bots.

keep in mind that if they spot leaks they might fix them...so don't think a leak is there forever...monitor all of your reads.

few thoughts...slightly scattered because I just finished a session so my brain is a little tired..

first you can call in SRP and risk being squozen because you are only risking 3 bb to see the flop...you also might be completing the action if it happens to go raise, you call, squeeze, call or fold, then up to you. 

(is it just me or do the f*king right and left arrows not work when you type on this site? hah. I always forget and it takes me a second to figure it out)

anyway...also when someone raises and you call, their range is their raising range...which includes lots of trash hands...also hands that you dominate. like say someone raises A2 and you call AT.

compare this to their 3 betting range which has a lot less trash hands. your implied odds go way down and spr becomes smaller obv if you start cold-calling 3 bets as part of an overall strategy (we are talking about 100bb deep here). I think you can probably pick a few spots to do it exploitative-ly but I seriously doubt you will be able to come up with a range to do this in a GTO strategy. 

Also don't forget, the initial raiser is going to 4 bet some of the time and you are going to be folding a bunch. Especially if people catch on that you are doing this too much with hands that can't stand shoves.

You will wind up in a huge pot without initiative and without super-clear definition of their ranges...your hand will be a lot more clearly defined. Like you're never gonna have 67s doing this right? but the 3 bettor might have that...you'll never have 44, but the initial raiser might have that (some people 3 bet PP also so even the 3 bettor might have that). and you will be facing two people a lot. I really don't think it's worth trying to work into your game.

i'm def not loving life but you just have a ridic strong hand and he only raised it a little bit. I can dream up a few hands he might be doing this with even if it "doesn't make sense". if he had a strong hand I would think he'd want to put in a huge raise to get the pot built up...I mean even if he had 8888, he just has to hope you have something at this point and make a big raise.

I would call turn and I bet you're gonna see river go check/check a lot. you won't always lose more money on the river even if you are currently beat. there are several action killing cards and you can just fold to a big bet at that point.

it could take 2-3 weeks for you to really change you sleep schedule / rhythms...i'd say if you are pro though, just play the hours you think are best for your A game and don't worry about trying to hit peak volume (within reason of course...don't go on when the site is totally dead). 

hey...i wanted to post a few hands by this guy I saw but I can't figure it out hah...so i'll just sort of describe them if you want to discuss. this guy is a big winner at 1,000nl (maybe higher also? dunno). maybe we can learn something from this?

in each of these hands, he is OTB and facing 2 Raisers...stacks are approx 100bb deep. I filtered for the times a flop was seen.

Of note...as I suspected, in about 90% of these hands, EP is a fish and CO (or MP) is a reg.

Losing Hands:

1) he small 4 bets Q9ss. CO calls. KT4r (one spade) board. he bets 1/3 pot then shuts down. 

2) he calls the 3 bet and EP calls. A54 w/ flush board. CO cbets and he folds.

3) he calls the 3 bet and EP calls. T73 w/ flush board. checks through. 8 turn completing flush. EP bets out, fold fold.

4) he calls the 3 bet and EP calls. A72 w/ flush board. CO cbets and he folds.

Winning Hands:

1) He small 4 bets and EP folds and CO calls. Flop is 832 with flush draw. cbets 1/3 pot and gets a fold

2) He calls the 3 bet and EP calls. flop is T83 and it checks to him. He bets 1/3 pot and gets two folds

3)  He calls the 3 bet and EP calls. Flop is 882 with flush draw. checks to him. He bets a bit over 1/2 pot. EP fish calls. 5 turn and he jams for slightly over pot and fish folds.

4) He calls the 3 bet and EP folds. He has 55 vs CO's AQ and flop is Q85 w/ flush draw. he min raises cbet then co shoves

5) He small 4 bets and EP folds and CO calls. He has KTss. KQ4 flop w/ flush draw. check/check. CO leads 2 turn and he just calls...he binks a T on the river and co checks and he jams (he beat AK).

so a few take-aways. 

1) I am not too sure what stats he looks for in regs to do this...but like I said, EP is always a fish (there was one or two with just regs). I imagine he looks for regs who are going to be 3 betting this fish too much AND are going to be passive postflop.

2) He seems to play very passively postflop facing any bets. I think he just gives up at that point

3) the two hands he showed down with min-4bets were Q9s and KTs. The one hand he showed down where he called was 55.

4) he showed aggression on low boards and played very passive on high boards (even one that he hit)...and folded whenever an Ace hit and he got bet into. This makes me guess he isn't calling with Aces...he's prob cold 4 betting them (or folding).

5) The hands that called him seemed to be a lot of AK AQ type hands from the reg. (and god knows what from the fish hah). So he prob just puts in small bets on low boards and figures he'll win pretty often. and if he faces resistance, he just gives it up.

So my guesses into his strategy and the keys to making this work (feel free to add) is 

1) picking the right spot to do this (fish in EP/MP and mildy (but not over-aggro reg that 3 bets MP or CO)). Also I wouldn't do this vs regs that are complete nits that have only very strong ranges here.

2) call more with pocket pair type hands and iso 4-bet with big suited cards (Q9 KT). (btw both times they were spades...obv small sample but maybe he randomizes his play a bit by occasionally doing this when he has high spade hands? like so he's not doing it ALL the time...but enough to be annoying

Also don't call with big Aces...use them to 4 bet just because of blockers, etc. I would prob cold 4 bet AQ here then fold...and continue with AK obv.

3) when you cold 4 bet and get called, realize that their calling range is big hands and play the flop accordingly. This is because most people don't 3 bet mid pocket pairs from early position. Think about it...they are going to 3 bet junk hands sometimes, big cards, and big pairs. they will fold their junk to your 4 bet and raise their biggest pairs...they will fold their midling high cards (KJ, etc)...so that leaves their calling range almost all AQs and AK. (obv some AK with just jam but for the ones who call, their are prob just going to play scared postflop if they were too scared to get it in to begin with...at least that's what he's banking on...that's why you shouldn't do this vs way over-aggro regs).

 this may mean even checking a street with AA on 226r might be a decent play here? if big cards come out, just shut down and don't bluff.

4) your bet sizing postflop can be very very small. AQ and AK can't really continue on low boards. (he seemed to always bet 1/3 pot. one time he bet more and then he overbet jammed on a fish. I suspect he flopped either a draw or had a pretty vulnerable made hand).

5) I also wanted to mention another factor / "side-effect" I think is important. This really discourages the reg from 3 betting the fish too much. If you know the guy behind you is going to call and 4 bet you a ton...it's going to make it more likely for the reg to just call...and BTW his squeeze OTB in these situations is pretty high. It probably also forces regs to just fold their trash that they might have 3 bet the fish with, and gives this guy the chance to call or 3 bet on the button with the fish.

i actually like it a lot less because I think the button is going to call more than you think. He'll have amazing odds and be OTB. and postflop is going to be REAL tough if he does.

If the SB leads (and you missed) you can't float...you will sometimes be calling with the best hand and forced to fold. you're going to not be able to win on blanks. I think it's much better OTB when you will be last to act always.

If the SB checks, it's also really hard to bet because the button is still there and you risk being check/raised.

you could prob experiment and figure out who you could make it work against but those are such sweet hands to cold 4bet bluff if you really think the guy is way out of line. I think you're going to wind up losing like 20-25bb really often doing this.

hey I actually have had one guy give me fits by cold-calling my 3 bets when he is OTB. It's just so hard for me to do much postflop unless I connect. I'm really in a very uncomfortable spot. I actually have it on my list of things to do in the very near future to look through some of these hands.

the guy is a big winner so I know he's not just calling to hit or whatever.

a few thoughts about the positives of cold calling

- first it makes it basically impossible for the blinds to continue...so you don't have to worry about them bluffing. you can prob fold QQ if one of them shove. tbh I might just fold QQ if I was in the blinds and saw this happen in front of me. you'd basically be set-mining oop and praying the first guy didn't just jam. I am tightish preflop to aggression so I'm not sure if someone might just jam QQ just because? I dunno.

- next, the first raiser can't just 4 bet bluff anymore...now he has to fear two people having a hand. it would be pretty crazy for him to bluff. so i'd say he's most likely to call given he has great odds (or fold if he has a hand that doesn't play well in this spot, ATo, KJo, etc).

- I don't have a very high cbet in 3 bet pots...so maybe this guy sees that and figures he's going to get it checked to him a lot? I'm not sure if he does this with other people or singles me out because he sees that stat? (maybe he sees something else...or maybe he just had QQ every time hah). I think (just a guess) that this is the key to this strategy...finding the right person to do it vs.

- you can prob take a few pots with the worst hand? (if he has KK and flop comes scary - 9TJ - or with an Ace and he checks to you).

- if you get a low flop and the guy commits himself with AK you are gonna have way better odds than getting it in preflop. (you're sorta screwed to overpairs regardless).

- I would expect there to be less bluffing postflop...so again, I would probably start to experiment with this vs people who don't monkey cbet?

sweet thanks...I knew something probably really basic was off and that it had to be a little closer but I couldn't figure out what I did wrong. my brain stopped working today at some point hah...had to stop playing.

hah yeah I def agree with that.

I suppose if someone wanted to calculate the EV of a call here, you can just make a spreadsheet with your postflop equity vs several different ranges. (like 10% polarized, 10% unpolarized, then break it down further if the guy is 3 betting hands like K9s vs 67s...or if a guy is using offsuit aces or PP to "bluff" with...then just do one for different 3 bet percentages (like say 5-15%). 

then you would have to decide how much of a disadvantage your being oop is. I suppose you can start with a 10-15% disadvantage? (that's just sort of a guess). And scale it up vs better players than you and down vs worse?

It would take a few hours to do this but it's not really that difficult. I guess some of those programs could do that a lot quicker. The biggest question I wouldn't know the answer to would be what to set the "oop disadvantage" to.