wwt2104

wouldn't fold 77 pre since you two are deep and there are some implied odds if you hit a set. He's 3betting a strong range so he'll be more likely to pay you off when you do hit. Think 2/3 pot bet on flop is pretty strong and it's tough between call or fold. Would for sure call 1/3 bet. On turn I would be very comfortable folding.

These are just my thoughts and I'm by no means an expert so take this all with a grain of salt. I'd be happy to hear what others think though.

Preflop: usually 4x OOP
Flop: A couple of things -
1) Board texture - I think middling boards usually favor pre-flop caller more so your range advantage as the 3Bet aggressor is somewhat neutral now. Out of the BB, you're most likely calling TT and 99, so the nut advantage is firmly with the villain now. Neutral equity + no nut advantage = check more, bet more infrequently and smaller if you do.
2) Position - You are OOP, making it harder to realize your equity, and making it easier for villain to control the size of the pot. This in general means that we should favor checking more.
Check range, and call with AA and KK because they have more stable showdown value. JJ should be a check/raise I think, especially without a heart. QQ I think is borderline and could be a check/call or check/raise without a heart? You also have some suited Tx combos that you can c/r as well. ATs, maybe a few combos of KTs, JTs.

Turn/River
- vs. unknown at NL5, I assume they're not a regular, otherwise I'd have seen them more around. Since they're new, I assume that they're weaker players until proven otherwise, and that means that their range for triple barreling is very value heavy. I'd fold queens personally as an exploit.
- vs a regular, I'd call QQ without a heart.

Preflop: KJo is usually not an open for me UTG unless there are fish in the blinds
Flop: multiway pot so we want to bet more polarized. Only very strong value (sets, two pairs, maybe AK. If there's a fish involved, I would bluff at a lower frequency, but high equity draws are still good candidates (QT, Nut club draws). When BB raises, I think we have to call. Yes there are sets but KK and JJ are unlikely because BB probably would 3B them preflop, and we also have two blockers to those combos so he really only has 2 combos of those and 3 combos of 77. BB could also be value raising worse (J7, K7 two pairs for instance, or slowplayed AA).
Turn: with only a pot-sized bet left behind, I think shoving is appropriate, you can definitely get called by worse here, and if it so happens you're up against a set you still have 8% to improve to full house, and you have the club blocker to help against FDs.

I'd be interested to hear what villain's stats were VPIP/PFI/3B/FCB, etc. and also what kind of player type you think they were.

interesting! I never thought about us having somewhat of a range advantage on this board (with a greater proportion of flushes). How light would you go with raises in that case? Would you raise something like 89 no heart exploitatively?

great job man! Keep it up :)

Thanks for the video Peter, was so informative and enjoyable. As a student, having alpacas for cards really helps to promote the active component of learning, hope you continue with this series!

This is incredible, thanks for posting this. Been reading about your journey and really inspiring to see all the hard work you're putting in.

I'm just starting to get serious about poker so no real advice or tips for you but I was wondering what program you use to generate these tables?

99 will not win you money all the time, especially on high card boards that hit villain's 3B range a lot. Think of all the hands he 3-bets with. AKs, KQs, KJs, KK, even could have AA. Maybe he'll fire one street with something like AJo but I think pool just often gives up after you call on the flop. 99s without a set is good to call once, probably not twice.

I think the most useful thing would be to look at villain's 3B stat. 6-9% is average from my understanding (if anyone else has other opinions please feel free to chime in). Below 6% means villain is probably a Nit, you can feel pretty good about folding if they fire a second barrel. On the other hand, if their 3B stat is off the charts and something like 15-17%, then perhaps entertain a turn call if the board hits low again.

Hope this helps, as always, interested to hear what others think!

Villain seems really passive, when he shows strength I would respect it, especially on the river. Donking on the flop is less intimidating since they sometimes do that with any piece of the flop.

Unfortunate runout, perhaps just a call on the river? Possible that he has two pair now with K, especially since he called on that flop texture. My understanding is that profit from passive fish will come a lot from taking pots down with c-bets on the flop, so if they continue to turn and river I'd be more careful about which hands to value-bet.

Curious about other people's opinion though, and also to hear what villain had!

Not an expert here, but grinder's manual likes bluffing on cards that are "scary" for fish. 6s is not that card. Js, completing the flush would be. Even though most FD bet on the turn, I don't think many fish understand that. Perhaps an overbet on the river? Would be interested to hear other people's opinions!

makes me feel better about the fold if even KK have to fold, thanks mate!

Thanks for the comment Raoul, now that you mention it, I guess it is a fairly wet flop texture that could interact a lot with button's range so I'd agree we can use a polarized strategy as well.
I'm glad to hear your thoughts on the river being an easy fold as well. Is there any combo that you would call this river shove with? Sets or bottom straights for instance?