tmckendry

Entire hand looks well played to me. If UTG has 70%+ vpip I think 3b pre is fine as he will probably overcall lots of stuff we still dominate.

Wow this is some of the best written analysis I've seen in a long time. (I suppose this is a result of frequenting 2+2). Good work.

This analysis is useful, but its not comprehensive. I think a good portion of our strategy selection has to do with what our villains tendencies / strategies are. Some players have a really high raise cbet in 3b pot, esp when they are on the btn.. while others like to flat the top of their range in this exact spot. I think players at this level tend to play quite exploitative, so these factors carry even more weight.

I like the analysis as a baseline, thanks for the work! Any followup data/info/analysis would be awesome.

Not if you ask like that.

I think its too complex to solve using "brick and mortar" type calculations like this. How can one expect to calculate the "EV of flatting IP"? There are so many variables post-flop it would be very long calculation to do all possible runouts and the likelyhood of different betting actions / responses. It's practically impossible.

Also, stack depths matter.
Also, player skill matters (EV flatting IP changes from the best reg to passive fish).

I like call flop c/r turns if spr is 15-20 versus a very aggro thinking opponent (which it seems we are). At 25 spr there is too much value in getting it in on the flop with an equity advantage versus the top part of his range.

Good video Zach.

I dont like raising with the AJ98$ds on 974ccd. I suspect its +EV but I think calling is more +EV.

I think that discounting an overpair + clubs out of his flatting range is a stretch. From my experience it is not uncommon to see a strongish range (including overpair+fd) call in that spot with 2 players left behind.

Hero raising can occasionally lead to some pretty disgusting situations. Raise/calling v PFR is a horrible situation.. We would be putting in $475 with ~35% equity. Raise/folding v the player behind is pretty unfortunate as well.

I don't know how +EV it is to get the PFR/player left behind to fold equity. Getting the exact math behind this would be pretty valuable. I think it would be a very tough problem to solve. Personally, I don't really feel like spending a couple hours on it. On first glance it looks like we get ~50% equity in a $145 pot instead of 30-35% equity in a 3-4way pot?

Very rough math looks like gaining 15-20% equity on $145 is upside.. Downside is losing ~15-20% on $475 when we get it allin vs pfr and losing $120 when we raise/f vs the player left behind. A rough guesstimate leads me to believe this raise has to get through ~70% to be +EV. That said, I think it probably gets through 70-85%.

Calling is certainly +EV. Calling also has a couple benefits that may have been overlooked in this spot. First, we have a bd nut draw and nut gutshot, so we can sometimes get in big bets with 95% equity on rare run-outs. Also, I suspect in position with a dry sidepot we can realize our equity ~fully.

Keep up the good work! Will be following

I think you do a good job explaining your thoughts, but yeah, you talk quite a bit and at a slow pace. I'm sure some people prefer slow/thorough method though.. carry on :)

I think you misunderstood the video..

Yes, thats me

ENTJ. Napoleon :)

He has lots of QJ/AQ/Kxs type hands, but he's rarely going to hero call on this river. Our UTG open range and bet/ch/bet range probably looks too strong to a tight reg. Even if he has 12 combos of QJ/AQ/Kxs and calls with 33% frequency.. That's ~4 combos. I think he has as many or more slow plays in his range that ch/c ch ch/r (a combo of 33, a combo of KQ, a combo or two of AJ) and maybe even a couple combos of ch/c ch ch/c (1 or 2 combos of QT).
 
So yeah, I dont think its a good value bet spot versus a tight player. Versus a fish(wide defend range pre, loose peel range postflop), sure its a vbet.

I think you should be less inclined to 4b jam pre versus a player you suspect will quit if they double up. There is too much EV is waiting for a better spot.