I think that it's hard to know conceptually what are the worst hands to open, and was thinking about another way to look at the problem (mathematically):

I looked in my db:

Total Opens: (Filter in HM2- After April 15th 2014; 200z 500z; PFR, Unopened)
EP= 3334
MP= 3302

Steal Success:
EP= 898 hands
MP= 974 hands

Flat IP:
EP= 562; bb/100= 110
MP= 695; bb/100= 57

Flat OP:
EP= 1239; bb/100= 88
MP= 934; bb/100= 98

Faced 3B:
EP= 635
MP= 699

Equation for opening weakest hands:

EP=>
<1.5 * (.269) + 1.1 * (.169) + .88 * (.372) - 3.5 * (.190)> = .25bb

MP=>
<1.5 * (.295) + .57 * (.210) + .98 * (.283) - 3 * (.212)> = .2bb

What we can conclude is that EV from steal success captures around 2/3rds of the loss from getting 3b (assuming we fold to 3b), we need to make the other 1/3 up when we see a flop.

The variable that we want to know to make analysis useful is the EV when getting flatted with our fringe/worst opening hands. The numbers above are ALL hands that we opened which is fine for finding out what happens prior to the flop, but not useful when looking at equity realized when we see a flop with our worst hands.

Any ideas on what the EV should be when flatted pre-flop ?
My guess is that it would always be positive even though when we have the bottom of our preflop opening range. As we have a stronger perceived range and therefore will be able to take down the pot a large potion of the time when everybody misses.

Any other ways to look at the problem?
Thanks