plac730

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Yeah the 400 into 1100 with AAxx struck me as strange too. I believe Oddsen in one of his videos said he splits his range at low SPR into pot/call's and then bets small with his air and monsters. I think that makes more sense than betting small with everything.

This is a pretty interesting subject. It used to be beaten into the ground that position is huge in PLO and that we should be very tight from oop. I remember old cardrunners videos where instructors were folding some pretty nice hands from the blinds that no RIO instructor would ever contemplate folding nowadays. 

The trend/evolution recently seems to be towards looser play from the blinds on the basis of pot odds and not folding out equity. Perhaps this is a natural shift as players get better at playing out of position and planning their ranges or perhaps in a couple months we will realize how much we are spewing from the blinds and revert back to tighter ranges.

Regarding flatting AKQ6ss from the sb, in one of Andre Santos' videos he 3 bets AKJ4ss in the same spot (except vs a button 3x instead of 2x raise) and says that it is a 3b every time against a button open. He justifies it by saying we need to have a wide 3b range from the sb to punish the button's wide opening range.

Intuitively, it feels like if we are flatting a hand this strong in the sb, we arent punishing the button frequently enough to discourage him from opening hands that play poorly in 3b pots since he won't face one as often.

What is wrong with just betting turn and checking back all rivers unimproved? I don't play any HU plo but that was my first instinct when looking at this hand.

Sometimes we are betting into a better hand but sometimes we are getting value from a draw or protecting vs a 1 pair hand and its not like he can confidently bluff any "scary" river since we are semibluffing a lot here too.

I'm pretty sure anyone who plays this high either has the money to throw around or is confident they have an edge in the game. Them no longer playing is more likely a result of either getting bored and moving on to other things if they really are a rich whale, or losing enough to realize they don't actually have an edge.

I think that if you are a new face in the nosebleed games you would probably have to assume the game will form around you until you've proven you can compete.

Zen made an excellent post in the "Am I stacking off too light in these spots thread" that covers this very well.

I agree with checking flop, but for different reasoning. When you raise out of the sb, your range is very high card oriented so this is a flop you completely miss a high % of the time. I would start with a c/c on this flop and re-evaluate turn.

Really ugly spot. His stack off range is not going to be crushing you but you'll definitely be less than 50% equity getting it in here. Given the high SPR, reraise getting it in is for sure -ev. The only exception is if you know he's capable of raise folding for such a large size.

b/c doesn't look too attractive either since an offsuit 8 are our only nut outs. So nearly every turn is going to be awkward to play. We most likely lose action on hearts unless he has them as well.

Perhaps the mistake was leading into an aggressive reg in the first place. If we know he's someone who c-bets a lot and barrels turns at a high frequency, this is a nice hand to have that can c/c twice very comfortably. Leading into someone who c-bets too much is not the proper adjustment.

I would prefer donking a hand like this into someone who checks back the flop a lot but peels too light.

Don't really see how we can even consider bluff raising this river when even you agree he's very unlikely to be bluffing. So we'd be bluff raising into a range that is going to be mostly boats with a line that is trying to rep T9 that slowplayed to the river and then decides to finally raise? I doubt anyone would buy that.

Your reasoning makes sense but if you want to be bluffing your missed draws here with any sort of frequency and not be very unbalanced you need to have more than just fullhouses as your value range.

Against this player I would 3b preflop for value. As played I'd call the river since you're probably chopping most of the time while losing to a higher straight a small % of the time and also seeing a random bluff a small % of the time as well.

Why do you think it is a bad play to valuebet an overpair on this river? Given all the missed draws I think we should be valuebetting overpairs given the high # of busted draws in both players' range.

oddsen up 1100 now. have seen the politician make some really poor plays on the river thus far.

KQJT is a pretty hand and all but you can't really call it a 3-bet for value when we are only 40% vs the raiser's opening range and will be forced to call 4-bet fairly often with a hand that only has 38% vs AA.

I think I agree that a small flop raise might be better than flatting. All I know is that if we get repotted on, we are hating life.

I suppose when I don't raise the flop or turn he can discount boats from my range pretty heavily. Still, valuebetting worse than QJ seems too thin to me, especially for that sizing.

In multiway pots it is crucially important that your draws (your primary one at least) be to the nuts. I snap fold this on the flop and don't think twice about it.

You must have input the hand wrong because he has 45% vs random AAxx, not 73%.

What hands do we get to the river with that need to bluff this river? I'd say well over 95% of our range is 2p or better by the river. So by shoving the river aren't we just representing the range that got there? For opponent to think he has a profitable bluff catch he would have to think we are turning a lot of hands into bluffs right?

Rather than saying I'm c/ring the turn too light perhaps you meant to say I'm c/r'ing the turn too weighted towards sets and 2p? In any case, even if we constructed our turn c/r'ing range well enough to be protected on most rivers, the most profitable vacuum play on this river probably still is to check to induce.

Even if our turn c/r turns our hand completely face up as top set, with a psb left to play for on the river, are we actually exploitable? Our hand is still the nuts on roughly half of rivers. On the other half, we play the check/guess game, but we can probably figure out which cards he's overbluffing based on his overall aggressiveness, pf opening range, our blockers, etc.

Agreed with most of your post except about folding to 3 barrels too much. Obviously a huge generalization but I think psychologically players hate getting bluffed or not knowing if they are and are willing to call down much more than opponents are actually triple barrel bluffing.

"I think lot of ppl cant achieve nice non sd win, because of focusing too much on non sd". What does that even mean lol?

Sick graph/winrate btw :O

Thanks for the input everyone. In case anyone is curious about the results of the hand, I ended up checking and he checked back with AKQT. I was quite surprised to see him not turn his hand into a bluff as it seemed like a good spot for it.

Its definitely not standard to 4 bet any AA this deep but some players do it anyway. I also dont really expect a player with such a low 3b% in the first place to have much of a non-AAxx range in this spot either.

The way you got the %'s was pretty interesting, i'm definitely going to try that method for examining other spots, thanks.

And yeah I dont see any reason to raise the flop or turn in this spot.

yeah against someone this tight (and he's probably even tighter when UTG if he's positionally aware) its best to just x/c flop, x/c any turn, and x/fold to a big river bet unimproved.

it might feel weak/exploitable to be forced to play a hand this strong this passively but rest assured he's losing value in other spots being so tight preflop. putting in too much $ against these guys when their range is so strong is just playing into what they are trying to accomplish with their strategy.

I have to reiterate that thinking a flush draw completes 1/3 with one card to come has absolutely disastrous strategic consequences for your game. If this were true then like you said, you would always be getting direct pot odds to call a pot sized turn bet, and any money you win on the river when you hit is icing on the cake. This is definitely not the case.

lol you are quite optimistic with your approximation considering 9/44 is about 20%, not 1 in 3. a rather huge difference when examining the profitability of this call.

To determine the implied odds we need on the river we need to solve this equation: 23/(23+23+24+x) = 20% 

x = 46 (a 2/3 pot sized bet on the river)

To call turn you need to think that opponent is going to pay off a big river bet almost always, or that you have more outs against his hand than just your flush draw.