nassander

Agree.

Ok so I wrote my comment before reading midori's and we are actually very close in conclusions, which is nice.

When you 3-bet and check call the flop and then he only fires the flop and checks back the turn, the action is consistent with you never having KJ and him having a one pair+draw type hand.

The river completes some but not all draws:
Draws completed: Q8xx, J8xx, 98xx, KQxx, KTxx, K9xx
Draws not completed: QJxx, TJxx, J9xx

On the balance of it I would assume we could get him to fold Q high straights but not K high. I like betting this river as a bluff to get him to fold Q high straights. It also takes away his opportunity to turn his draws not completed into a bluff on a good scare card. Unless he reads it all correctly and re-bluffs you, lol.

Fwiw I would consider leading the turn since we pick up some equity and it sets us up nicely to bluff the river. We are usually only getting raised by KJ which represents such a narrow portion of what he can have.

I think that both ranges should be no wider than: j8,77,tt,99,Acxc,T9

Really I think they are closer to j8,77,tt,99,Acxc

In terms of one being tighter. I'm no longer sure that this is correct given the way the hand played out they could have similar ranges.

You are getting 2:1 so we need at least 33.3% equity to break even. Based on my range analysis below we have 39.29% equity so a call is +EV.

This is my first attempt using more advanced syntax in the equity calculator and I think I got it right. I assigned the villain a pretty tight range of all flopped sets and straights. He could be a bit wider but I think this is a fair guess. I assume he is just wanting to draw to no flush then gii ott.
Equity

a. Game flow
b. A table agreement
c. GTO
d. Exploiting position
e. High stake players like to gamble

I recommend agreeing on a range in plan English first, then get someone to compute it, what do you think?

I don't play these stakes (yet) but I'll have a go.

I think that this board is one that he isn't going to be c-betting often in a 3-bet pot, so I am a fan of donking for value. There just isn't much he wants to bet the flop with and play a big pot here, he is likely to check back all of his low flushes, his straights, his straight draw and his sets. On the flip side, he is going to call us with all of these, at least 1.

We only have $298 effective and OTF there is $111 in the middle and we have $246 behind. If you donk your $71 OTF it sets us up nicely for an all-in of $175 into $253 OTT. Ok, just saw the $175 on the river, well I've done the arithmetic now and I'm not deleting it!

As played checking the flop, what do you think about going for a check raise OTT? If we check twice I think he bets 100% of his range no?

On the river I think we need to look at his ranges. I've had a go constructing some ranges and I'm pretty happy that this helps me to make the right decision based on how I think he will play.

A few problems I have with my logic is firstly that I don't think we are deep enough for these to be stable and secondly I'm not sure exactly how one assigns the villain a range, that is the genius part. I'd hazard a guess that profile 3 is the most common. I also haven't included any air bluffs because I can't see any that he floats with except maybe the bare ace, but I think it's probably burning money to take this line with stacks. Could rip the turn, there's an idea.

1. tight calling range and wide betting range: check call
Calling: full houses
Folding: <2 pairs, flushes, straights
Checking back: <2 pairs
Betting: full houses, flushes, straights

2. wide calling range and tight betting range: bet
Calling: full houses, flushes, straights
Folding: <2 pairs
Checking back: <2 pairs, flushes, straights
Betting: full houses

3. tight calling range and tight betting range: check fold
Calling: full houses
Folding: <2 pairs, flushes, straights
Checking back: <2 pairs, flushes, straights
Betting: full houses

4. wide calling range and wide betting range: either bet or check call
Calling: full houses, flushes, straights
Folding: <2 pairs
Checking back: <2 pairs
Betting: full houses, flushes, straights

Can you add in the pot sizes on each street so we can see the odds etc?

Also I don't understand this? I can't work out who is still in the hand on the turn and who is doing the betting, maybe re-write it.
"Turn 3s Hero x, DONK pott fish folds hero?"

In general though against players that are betting like crazy and never folding I think check calling is a pretty good strategy with the nut draws. Obv the board isn't the best but we keep in worse FDs too which is great.

Firstly I kind of agree with pasty that this hand is going to get you into trouble but I get that you have one player potting everything and you need to play some hands and you have position.

As played, I like completing pre because we have good virtual position against the aggro player. We only have one player, the SB to act after us and we know if we get heat from him we are going to be behind.

In general, I like to protect my stack and play more conservatively in a dynamic like this where I have a lot of chips at a table and feel like I am in the zone. I have found that shorter stacks will try to gamble with me and get a double up but bluff less. It makes good $ sense but also for game flow and maintaining a good mindset, i.e. bit of a difference getting stacked with 100bbs to running it up then donating it back.

I think it comes down to your experience with the two players in raise pots. Knowing how they will react with what ranges to your flop action is key, both on the flop, and how they will play turns if you flat. For example, does the weak player flat but then just call off with a nut FD or does he always raise the nut FD? Does the crazy guy fire one then shut down or gii super light?

Given you have eliminated strong made hands from the weak player's range, If you can be confident he also doesn't have a nut FD then I think raising is best to fold out higher non-nut flush. It should also fold out good wraps that have us crushed.

On the other hand by flatting we maximise the benefit of our position on the turn. If we raise we end the hand sooner and don't realise this positional advantage. If the turn brings a flush and it goes bet raise or even bet call, we can consider folding and getting off cheaply. Downside is it could go 4 way.

We aren't really worried about the aggro player because his range is too wide to factor in in such a MW pot.

The SB is a bit of an issue, because if we raise we will commit our self against him if he goes all in, most likely drawing to a prayer. Given he is tight I don't think we can worry too much because his range for check raising all in here is very small, e.g. strong hands like 88AhTh or 79ThAh etc.

So all that considered, the real deciding factor for me is what turn cards do we like? Really a 3 and that's it. A 7 gives us a non-nut straight and likewise a flush card a low flush. Also a J, Q, K or A could be a good card for us to bluff with if the action slows down. So really our hand is more of a bluffing hand than a value hand. We just decide to bluff now on the flop or wait until the turn.

So I decide to either play a big pot on the flop or a small one on the turn or to showdown.

Phil's (not me, the other guy) seminar on youtube is pretty good for an intro to the game.

It's one of the first PLO video's I watched and it goes over common mistakes that beginners make transitioning over from Holdem.

Obviously also a tonne of great videos on run it once ;)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KuIdfyKz-_w

I think it's fair to call the first opener a bad lag.

I'm not in love with the pre-flop sizing at 100bbs. I would 3-bet smaller for pot control for the times I get 4-bet and make flatting less committal. Post we can still get our stacks in if we want to while keeping our options more open.

I like the check back on the flop, love taking the free card here. We don't really want to gii with our hand on that board against a bad lag who will put us on aces but call anyway because he has an ace or a big flush draw. This line is great in a heads up pot and I'm thinking whether betting could be a better option in a MW? It achieves the same thing of dodging 1 street of betting but also allows us to potentially get heads up. It also allows us to control the sizing against a bad lag who likes to pot a lot.

I don't necessarily think that when the bad lag pots the turn that it means he wanted to go on the flop. Your check back makes your hand look more like KKxx so I imagine is just wants to win the pot with all of his Axxx hands. Agree though that there's a bunch of str8 and flush draws he may have wanted to go with OTF.

I'm tempted to call the turn because I think we can play rivers pretty well, but I would prefer to be deeper. In game I would probably call but math-wise I guess it's not the best.

Yes, definitely no point check raising because his range is pretty polarized to full houses and bluffs, in which case he calls when he has you crushed and folds air. He can be value betting a 4 that didn't fill up (may even check this back) but then you wouldn't be check raising as a bluff here, you would be value raising, and he might end up folding that, which is bad.

Your hand looks like a sticky AAxx OP type hand so I like the way you played it because you narrow your perceived range and keep his range wide and keep in his bluffs. When you double barrel I think you narrow his range too much in a spot where you can be crushed too often when called.

The issue I have with his bluff range is that there aren't a whole lot of combos that he will float the flop with and turn into a bluff, assuming he isn't bluffy in general, stats here would help a lot. I guess he could have the nut flush draw and over pairs himself but otherwise it's a dry spot to be floating in.

Check folding is ok I think against very tight opponents that you are pretty sure will check back a 4. But in saying that it leads me to want to bet fold the river against these players to avoid the negative freeroll. I'd be check calling against more aggressive opponents.

I don't think you are priced in, work out the odds, they don't look that great even with the money you put in. Plus the likelihood that you could be drawing to only half the pot too.

Also definitely watch the action to take notes and I would note the hands they played. I guess mentally we need to think I'm looking to see what they had rather than to see if I would have won the pot, bit of a challenge.

I would fold.

Like you said, so many flushes kill you on the river.

The tight reg SB, is probably either checking to check raise a set or double FD or to check call with a good flush draw. I doubt he is ever donking the flop and then check folding the turn. The board is definitely good for a check raise if he can get his stack in OTT.

When he check raises us, say the fish folds to make in simple, we are 50/50 with our hand against KKxx with no flush draws. There is no point flatting the turn and folding if he raises so we would be stacking off on a flip, at best.

When he flats, he doesn't put another dollar in unless he makes his hand, so we don't have implied odds against the SB.

Against the loose passive player it's a bit different. He is betting the turn so it's likely and it's likely he will pay us off on good rivers. Could be an argument for flatting if we think there's a high chance the SB doesn't x/r us, but I really think he will.

We can't really bluff raise the turn because it doesn't look like we are going to have any fold equity with a loose passive player betting and the tight reg checking. I do think this is an interesting consideration though comparing doing this with say a double non-nut flush draw.

We don't have any flush blockers we can use to bluff the river, so a river isn't going to be super exciting to play.

His line really feels like a set more so than a combo draw, unless you have history to say otherwise.

I'd just fold the flop check raise given our re-draws aren't great and his are probably better. Our 3 is no good, so we have a back door flush and str8 draws. You are crushed by a set and an overpair plus flush draw and behind a wrap.

As played I would fold the turn. He could be getting tricky with a combo draw but even then he won't be that far behind you if at all. You'll be like 60% at best, at worst 10%. I don't think it's worth the risk given how deep you are and the action.

If he's doing this a bit, might be a case of adjusting to checking back some turns, especially if he is likely to bluff busted draws.

I don't play your stakes but here is my take fwiw:

If UTG is soft I think we can exclude a 7 from his check back range and so he then polarizes his range to KKxx and AAxx, or worse 1 pair hands. So his river play should be pretty straight forward, folding most of his range to another bet from the SB, especially with deep stack caller behind and I would expect him to raise KKxx since he's not tricky enough to flat it (best line imo).

Our best bet is to flat the turn bet and wait for the river action, potentially saving more money when we are crushed then by raising the turn. If it goes bet raise it is an easy fold.

When the UTG does fold, we still have all our options against the SB. If he checks we could consider betting against trips. If we get check raised on the river we fold (best line for SB imo). We have to give him a wider range since we think he is fishy, so if he bets the river I think we have to consider calling. We don't really want to raise fold, I don't think, to a random who might just rip in A7xx etc.

Another downside to the kind of stop raise, even if we exclude the UTG, is that our options on the river are really to hope for a check and check back. If he bets, we fold, if he checks we don't want to bet. If we were raising with the intention of betting rivers if he flats the turn I think it's good if we know he is never folding a 7.

One up side of the raise on the turn is for value against trips, but stacks will get awkward on the river with the SB having close to a pot size bet left.

Yeah so I flat the turn, and call if the SB bets and the UTG fold, fold if it goes bet raise and bet if checked to.

Agree, I bet 99c on the turn and I check back the river.

With his stack you would have heard about 44, 66 and KT etc by the turn. If for some reason he did elect to play these this passively then he got a get out of jail free card on the river.

Note that because the Ac came on the river, if he was drawing to a flush, he was calling (in his mind at least) with a non-nut flush draw. It's something to think about and perhaps make a note on him and also note that he didn't lead the river with a pretty low SPR.

He's only got 1/2 a pot size bet behind, so no point trying to turn your hand into a bluff here. He just isn't folding a flush. He was also short stacked to begin the hand, potentially indicating so weaker.

I would also note that once the T drops on the turn all river cards will put a straight on the board making it a bit harder to bet the river.

Nailed it.

This is a definite fold.

Here's my thoughts on why:
- I don't think you can really determine which opponent has what, given the action. If you do have some thoughts on it, do you think this should weight into our decision to call or fold?
- Was the logic of flatting the flop for deception and pot control? I think this is good but then surely if this is the case when this gets blown out of the water we have to give up.
- Being 200+bbs deep in a spot where you aren't able to use this stack well, doesn't help us.
- Like you said, you could be getting free-rolled by J8xcxc, in which case you are in terrible shape. This is by far the worst case scenario. Even TTxcxc is ahead of us.
- Another big problem is being multi-way. I ran a bunch of different scenarios versus sets and flushes etc, not comprehensive by any means, but you rarely come out as a favourite, even with the flopped nuts. The best case is that you are up against the same hand from one player and two pair from the other, putting you at 50%, and this is unlikely or up against 2 sets, at 44%.
- You are getting very bad odds to call for the equity you have.

Fold the nuts, do it!

It's micro stakes and he's an ATM, just pot it.

Hi

I used to play mtts and now I've transitioned to cash PLO. I have put in a decent amount of volume at the PLO micros, but really need to put in more study to improve.

Please add me to the group, Skype: phillipnewbould

Yeah thanks for the feedback guys, the logic makes sense to me.

Re-reading my comments I think they were in the moment and I kind of got out of line looking for an excuse to get involved with a particular player. So I butchered it from a tactical perspective as well as from a mental one :)

Curious, is this to induce a check on the river? If not what's your thinking for raising?

Thanks makes sense.

Hi guys,

I'm interested too. I've recently switched to HU but used to play 6 max 25c and below.

If you PM me I'll send you my skype.

Thanks,
Phil

also this is my first post so H!