Sean Fri

This is a wonderful conversation.

Wow, that's cold, man. Isn't poker tough enough without giving grandma 30% to straight die during a match?

Well done series, even though I've definitely heard the conclusion before, especially in SNG videos. It's good to go back and build it up from the ground, though. Looking forward to future vids.

I dunno. If you bet into 4 ppl as the pfr on an AKx board otf, he'd have to be somewhat crazy to call with bottom pair, considering how often you have at least 2nd pr. Maybe he doesn't know that. But I think there are far more combos of Ax he has that think your kicker got counterfeited and he has the same 2prTK as you do. I think this is worth a value bet, although definitely a b/f.

One of the better videos I've seen in a while.

I agree the slower pace and concentration on standard spots are not a detriment. Also, player reads and population reads clearly change what's 'standard.' And I agree that replayer videos can misrepresent the frequency at which certain spots come up. So more of this at 25-100nl would be welcome.

That's interesting. Do you like x/c line to prevent getting raised off our showdown value? It seems like he's pretty aggressive against missed cbets, so he's almost always going to put us in a difficult spot if he bets again on the turn. Since he's folding to cbet 58%, isn't it profitable to be cbetting a lot?

With his stats, I think he'd be 3betting JJ+ pre (maybe lower), so the only thing he'd be barreling from the flop for value would be ... maybe AT, KT, TT, 66, 44. So 23 combos. But he's also likely to 3 brl all his fd's. Take out Ah[Kh,Qh} and he has maybe 13 combos of fd's? And 9h8h got there. So really only 12 fd bluffs against 24 value hands, so he'd need to add a lot of other random bluffs that don't make sense to make calling a good sized bet (or the likely overjam) on the river profitable. (Of course you can also add in some JT, T9s hands that he'd bet early streets for protection, but he'll check those back now, so I still don't think you're winning often enough against a river bet.) As played, I think folding is the much better option.

I think maybe cbet/fold the flop is better than 2 check/calls? Your hand looks super capped like this, so he could probably overjam cocktail napkins on the river and get enough folds to show a profit. Betting 58% of the time against missed cbets seems a little suspicious, so I think it's easier to play if you just bet. If you suspect he's overbluffing these spots, make sure to miss a cbet with some monsters, too.

I think you can shove. I think the reg at least will discount the nut flush since a lot of people would have cbet the folp with the nfd. So he might call with trips, figuring he still has ten outs even if he guessed wrong. There'd be a little over $34 effective in the pot, and he'd have about $20 behind... he might talk himself into it. The BB is gravy. If he has nothing he's folding anyway. If he has a lower flush, he's never folding. If he comes along, UTG will need to call 20 to win about 58, so he has almost the pot odds he needs anyway (if he has trips.) I think get it in now so you don't have to worry about what to do when the Th shows up on the river.

I think you can shove. I think the reg at least will discount the nut flush since a lot of people would have cbet the folp with the nfd. So he might call with trips, figuring he still has ten outs even if he guessed wrong. There'd be a little over $34 effective in the pot, and he'd have about $20 behind... he might talk himself into it. The BB is gravy. If he has nothing he's folding anyway. If he has a lower flush, he's never folding. If he comes along, UTG will need to call 20 to win about 58, so he has almost the pot odds he needs anyway (if he has trips.) I think get it in now so you don't have to worry about what to do when the Th shows up on the river.

Delighted, I believe he said. I think the operative word in your reasoning is 'should.' He 'should' only be 3betting AA (though I don't believe that's true for a second.) The video is sort of about what to do against players who are doing things they shouldn't. With Espen's stack size, he can be opening pretty wide for value for exactly the ICM implications you point out. Even if it's AQ+, AJs+, 88+, villain can still profitably 3bet like AQs+, AK, JJ+, so we're ahead of his value range. And since, as it played out, villain flatted the 4bet and folded the flop, he's obviously 3betting wider than AA, so you might want to alter your assumptions.

I just looked through my database for the month (then the year, since this is so rare) and I was surprised that I made tons of money calling river donk bets in general. I've won over 60% of them, in fact. Admittedly, few of them were overbets, but I ran into exactly this situation yesterday and I folded TPTK (as I think you should) and villain showed a missed gutter. In the hands I've seen a showdown, most of the time the donk bet on the river was a missed draw or some weak TP that got counterfeited on the river by a higher card. So, yeah. Here, I think it's a toss up - one straight draw hit, but all the fd's missed. And 98 might do this, too. Some weaker players think 'my hand didn't show up, I have nothing, so I only win if I bet.'

Take a look at your database and see what your player pool is doing. But I think calling is certainly an option.

Of course, you might get shown trips, too. Guys sometime spaz bet when their strong hand is made weaker by a draw completing on the river.

Thank you for this thread.

Yeah - I'd love to see it, but it won't load.

+1

Seconded.

Love the format. Dragging the tables in and commenting later makes it so much easier to see and follow. 

Love the format.

Thanks - your videos are always very clear. I especially appreciate how you call out the tables on your screen instead of relying on us to follow your cursor. 

You're right. The tens especially are highly annoying. 

Oh, no worries - I was just pointing it out so people didn't have to peck around to find the start point. It's a really interesting talk.

For everyone's convenience - nothing happens until about minute 33.

Yeah, I know, but a boat isn't the nuts on that board, is all I'm saying. YOU know that no one can have quads, but you don't know that HE knows that. In fact, it's unlikely that he does know that. And I don't really think he's that polarized. It's a very draw heavy board, so he could easily be protecting an overpair or aggressively semi-bluffing himself. 

I can't see the charts, but for them to be 'right' then each villain in each given position would have to play exactly the same range from those spots and have exactly the same postflop tendencies. Since that's obviously not the case, then I wouldn't use them as more than a guideline or a jumping off point. If I could see them. Which I can't. 

Well, the nuts on that board is 99 and he can't have it, so if you haven't seen someone do it without the nuts before, you're seeing it now. Does that change your thinking? 

You don't know a ton about the guys, except that the blinds are probably weaker, so I think you'd have to think straightforwardly about it: The only club hand he should be opening utg that he could have is KcQc. The only 5x hand he should be considering opening utg is A5s, and there's only one combo out there, As5s. Other hands that beat you - AA, JJ, AJ - might be checking the flushed turn, but don't need to be. There's 1, 3, and 6 combos of those, but discount them a bit and say 6 out of the 10 play this way. That leaves AK that beats you as well and probably plays this way, 6 combos of that. So in all, probably about 14 combos beat you.

What would also play this way? Probably most the other Ax since the board kicker now plays and then maybe some random bluff thinking the board's too scary to call. That's 4 combos of AQ left, and 6 combos of everything else, AT-A6. Even though he shouldn't be opening trashy unsuited A's utg. Still that's about 34 combos he might do this with. And then maybe a KK that doesn't want to believe it's beat.

2.5:1, so you need to be good about 30%. Say 14 'value' combos - he only needs to try this with 6 combos of worse Ax and bluffs to make it an ok call, which is pretty easy to find. So in a vacuum, heads up, it's probably ok to look him up. 

That being said a lot of the time the BB wakes up with some baby flush here, so it's touchy. He ended up not this time, but you didn't know that at the time. So in all, it's a tricky spot, probably very close. 

I think raising the flop or betting the turn would be kinda over-repping your hand for the board, though I'd raise flop before I'd bet the turn. I think it's ok the way it's played, and it probably doesn't matter a whole lot what you do at this point. Very close. Which tilts you more? Calling and being wrong or folding and never knowing? 

Interested to see other's thoughts...

Tom, I appreciate the structure of the joke, but.... Black Label a fine whiskey? It's ok for mixing, but...

I think your most useful video yet, Tom. I do think the summation is the most important part. I agree that the lower the stakes, the more varied the types of players, and recognizing which camp they fall into is essential to making money. I don't know for a fact, but I imagine that as the stakes increase, the more and more players play closer to the averages for the level. (Because, as you mention, the lousy players are weeded out and can't move up.) I'm glad that someone raked through the muck and generated some data on levels that many Essential members are trying to move up from. 

That's awesome in theory, but in practice - while he has a very wide range that we might be ahead of preflop - his postflop leading range after passively overcalling is super nutted and contains almost no bluffs. I'm not saying that's true at 100nl or 200nl, but at micros, you can't really discount anything from a preflop range. 

Well said.