25nl Deep, the dreaded JJ

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25nl Deep, the dreaded JJ

Still having huge problems with the RIO hand history uploader, so I'm posting a text file...

Merge Game #82917472-170 | Holdem NL ($0.10/$0.25) | 06/12/2015 01:02:07 EST | Version:2.1
Table Hollywood IX (82917472), Seats 6
Seat 1: hero ($43.14 in chips)
Seat 2: Villain1 ($10.95 in chips)
Seat 3: Villain2 ($22.63 in chips)
Seat 4: Villain3 ($49.08 in chips)
Seat 5: Villain4 ($56.33 in chips)
Seat 6: Villain5 ($24.30 in chips) DEALER
hero: Post SB $0.10
Villain1: Post BB $0.25
* HOLE CARDS
Dealt to hero [Jd Js]
Villain2: Fold
Villain3: Fold
Villain4: Raise $0.85
Villain5: Call $0.85
hero: Raise $3.95
Villain1: Fold
Villain4: Call $3.10
Villain5: Fold
FLOP [2d 6c 2c]
hero: Bet $6.00
Villain4: Call $6.00
TURN [Ad]
hero: Bet $14.00
Villain4: Call $14.00
RIVER * [8h]

Just sat 37 hands ago, but Villain 5 has regish stats over 250+ and Villain 4 is playing 57/7/0 over 20 hands (he'll end up at about 60/20 over 50 hands before quitting, but I don't know this at the time.)

Squeeze seems way better than calling pre, though I'm not sure why I made it quite that big. Somewhat surprising that someone who's only opening 7% of hands finds a call as OR does, but there it is. I kinda think this takes QQ+ out of his range, but you never know. He could smooth call AA to invite Villain5 into the pot. I wouldn't, but people play their own way down here.

Flop seems standard - I don't think the call caps his range at all, because people at 25nl love to call flop/ raise turn with boats, but I also think he'll peel here with 77-TT and flush draws, maybe AK or AQ.

Although is scares the piss out of me, the A on the turn is better for my 3betting range than it is for his open/call range, but many of the hands I think he's continuing with on the flop contain an A (nfd, overcards). I bet, and I don't want to say it's for information, but it's true I figure he's only continuing with something like AQ+, Axcc, or 66. He calls and there's $21 in the pot and my $19.19 behind.

The river changes nothing unless he somehow had 88. Now, I don't think he has a boat, because I really think he would have shoved turn. Or should have, anyway. But an A makes a lot of sense for him, and I don't think there's a hand that beats me that will fold if I shove. And I struggle to think of a hand that I'm beating that will pay me off. But then, he's playing 57/7, so it's tough to know.

(After a sample size that's so small it's almost not worth mentioning, I will say that his fold to Fcbet was 25%, his fold to Tcbet was 0%, and his fold to Rbet overall was 100% at the time of the hand. (1/4, 0/3, 3/3)).

So did I botch the turn? If I check and he bets, and I have a pot sized raise left, it seems stupid to check/call and check/fold river. So if I check, and he bets, I should shove or fold. If I check and he checks behind, I should bet safe rivers, but I'd have 1.5pot behind, and that's just awkward, but we're 172bb deep in a 3bet pot, so life is going to be awkward.

As played, shoving seems optimistic OTR - maybe 99 or TT call, but that's all I can see that I beat; everything else that calls beats me. (Mayyyyyybe QQ or KK fold, but why didn't they 4bet pre?) But checking seems bad, too. It keeps bluffs in, but I don't think he has many, and I really don't think he'll bluff them. So... just check and hope to show it down after the turn? Check and hope to show it down after the river? Close my eyes and bet river?

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