luckftw

Love your approach to the study group, I will send you a pm with my skype email. I would like to have a deeper conversation on there with you to see if I am fit to join the group if you are interested.

Only because he is "never bluffing" does not mean that he does not overvalue his hand. I think you give him way to much credit. I also added AA, KK, QJo and QJs to his range which I don't think he is always doing always with those hands but in the end it is nl5 after all(no offense) people do mistakes. If we go up against that range we got 66% on the turn.
If you got a very very good read on him and really think his range is only what you said I guess you can fold but all I can see are the 13 hands you got on him.

The way you wrote the post I am assuming you called and he had you beat?

Oh and btw, I think everybody already thought of that but no one actually said it. Why are we not 3b that hand?? Just by judging the sample size of hands we got on the players it looks like we got 2 regs behind us and 2 recs that we can iso.

Yeah definetly agree. Essentially what I was trying to do is go through all the hands one by one to build up a range. If that makes sense.

Sorry that was my bad for poorly expressing me. What I meant by that is, if he is ever planning on bluffing the river he could be doing it that way to open himself up to the option of doing so. Not that he is always doing it randomly if he just misses.

What I also just thought about is what is he doing with 9cTc?? I mean we are blocking that super hard but that does not mean the hand doesen't exist right? It is a very low frequency but still.... It should be there. And if you even considered he might be bluffing with 78s is 9cTc not a slam dunk shove on the river because he is blocking top two sets?

True, I guess that in the end it comes down to your personal judgement of who you are dealing with in that hand.
What just crossed my mind is what if he actually targeted 33/77? I mean as played we should have 33/77/99 at the exact same frequency right? And you said that you would actually be folding 99. So what if, in his mind he expects you to call 99 and fold 77/33. Would that not make it a profitable bluff with any two? I mean it is a bit ambitious to give villain that much credit but as I said just something that crossed my mind.

Another way to break down the hand is to ask yourself (or others) what the average reg at 200nl is doing with 77. I mean that is essentialy the only real information that we have about villain right? So if you can figure that out, than we have a better understanding of what to do here.

Oh and you also mentionend that his bluffs call turn instead of the actual line he took because to get a set to fold on the turn seems pretty unlikely. What if that was not his intention? What if he played it that way the to pretty much always pile it in on the river on any card that does not pair the board?

Alright, I'd like to throw a couple of things out there for the smarter minds than me.

Lets put us in his shoes for a moment. Reading this post everyone seems to agree that villain is most likely going to show up with TT/77/33 here. With strong tendency to TT/77. So, what is he doing with TT/77:

a) TT: As far as I can tell the action was. Rec player limps -> Unknown player (Tendency to Rec) tries to iso -> Reg player cold calls to create a multi way pot with a hand that plays good in those scenarios. What am I doing with TT? Would I not atleast consider 3betting this hand pre to avoid playing in a 4 way pot with a decent hand and iso the presumably weaker players?
b) 77: Makes total sense for me to flat on the BTN and go from there. Now, as you said it seems a bit suicidal to play the hand like he did OTT and OTR but that does not exlude the hand completly from his range, right?

So, if he follows my logic and calls 77 100%. Calls or 3bet TT, which we can't say for certain. Than does that not make it a clear call and correct play without more information which we either don't have or you have some sort of intel that goes beyond your hud stats. Because I don't consider 433 hands as a big enough source for that sort of decision, right?.

So, feel free to destroy my post if you detect any logic flaws that I don't understand.

hit you up on skype

Sure, that is most likely the standard play. Thank you.

yeah makes sense, but what is he doing with Ax?