
jaguar
1 points
What ottopilot is saying is that betting this flop doesn't do a great job of preserving equity as when we do bet this flop the hands that generally fold are low equity/weak pocket pairs.
"if villain folds 22-88 and calls everything else OTF he's only continuing with 50% of his range so we can easily exploit him by betting any two cards."
While I do think it is a mistake to flat a 3x in the co with all combos 22-88, being able to +EV bet any two on the flop would not necessarily be an exploit.
"I cbet VERY litle as a bluf OOP on somewhat connected boards."
I dislike this statement. I think that you may need to reconsider why we bet OOP on the flop in the first place.
We are OOP in a single raised pot with money in stacks and streets left to play. "Bluffing" is (generally) something that doesn't even exist here - at least in the traditional sense.
Aug. 15, 2014 | 4:30 p.m.
If betting $14 is a mistake it is likely only a small one. Your hand holds decent blockers and desires some protection - you also have a lot of cards that improve your hand strength on the turn.
I believe that betting flop becomes especially good if SB is on the fishy side or if BB is apt to c-bet 100% with its better Tx and overpairs.
Aug. 15, 2014 | 1:12 a.m.
I want to reiterate that you are folding far too often to 3-bets. This is especially true as your opening frequencies (aside from BTN/SB) are certainly on the tighter side of things.
It looks like you are check folding too often as the PFR for your CB frequency.
Aug. 14, 2014 | 6:51 p.m.
You are drawing conclusions from a hand sample that is hardly relevant.
The fact that you have 150 hands and are even mentioning turn cb% numbers is an error.
In those 150 hands villain has only been OTB ~25 times. They have only had the option to RFI ~10-15 times. How can you have any confidence in his high opening % and low F3% with that sample?
I strongly dislike inflating the pot pre-flop with your values.
AsQx is a much different hand strength that AdQd. The As is a potent blocker and it retains a lot of equity when we are called/raised. It is much better to inflate the pot on the flop with these values than with hands that do not retain equity and struggle to improve.
Aug. 15, 2014 | 4:41 p.m.