homer5554

he is risking 165$ to win 127$ right?
so it´s 165 / 165+165+127  (am I right here?)
so if hes bluffing it needs to work in 64% to show immediate profite.
ppt is showing me that if u are 3betting 13% u got an overpair or better in about 62% so u would fold 38% immediately and maaybe sometimes an overpair => not a good bluff spot for him even if u are cbetting 100%.
note that I didnt customize the 13% range so there are probably too many overpairs involved so it still could be the better strategy to cbet less than 100%.
there´s nothing u can do with your holding here but in general I expect most opponents to raise there 2 pairs and medium strong pair+ draw combos on the flop to make u fold equity.
I think it´s worth about talking about the turn betsize since with a lot of your strong holdings there would be little need to protect and you want your bluffs to be cheap AND gives him less money to win by a semibluffraise.

shoving seems quite ambitious here..
we are trying to make flushes fold which seems too unlikely given hero´s image and the fact that this river card makes other flop+turn holdings like K9, sets more likely..
for the question is between fold and call.
I don´t really understand why you expect him to check back a lot of KQJ which is quite stong here and can stand a c/r?

For me the river betsize is a important factor. yes it makes sense for him to pot his unlikely nuts (or maybe he is the type who bets samll to induce..?). So the question is where is the borderline between this polarizing betsize and smaller ones / check backs ? 
My guess is the J or T high flush.
another point: would you - with your image - check a flush in this spot? obviously if not he could bet (big) with even lower flushes and without fear to get c/raised.
I also agree that some mid flsuhes get checked back on the flop.

Given all that I think I can find a call here

u should find out if u got the equity vs his allin range after c/r.
guess in this spot his range is only 98, maybe JJ, since it makes no sense to push AKQdd..
didn´t run the numbers but Im almost sure it´s a fold as you said.

to your questions:
1. I think c/c also plays fine here - A K Q 9 are the bad cards..on some other blanks you could get one more bluff out of him.
and you don´t the blown off your equity if he pushes the turn.
2. good question. there are hands which we would prefer to raise pot (AKQdd), and less than pot (99, JT)..
  Im not sure if u got the equity with JT for allin if u raise pot..
with your other strong semibluff hands u should have enough so there´s no real need to raise pot with that.
If u can lay down JT and 99 to a push u could save money there by raising less than pot (+ potentially save some foldequity for the river)

So I prefer a smaller raise size than pot, maybe even slightly smaller than u did there

3. I like your answer here. note that not every opponent is 2nd barreling a lot, especially on a board like this where he should get not many folds on the turn..
against aggro opponents I like to take AKQ ad wait for the turn to semibluff raise..

4. yes we have

as played imo valuebet river..

hm well.. not sure what he could call !
your plan was to c/c here? I dont really think he would bluff AKQ but again it depends on the opponent.
actually interesing question if this is a value bet..

First thing: thanks for your good answer on my confusing post ;)

second: your answer with the 2:1 ratio in this case is already a quite good answer to my initial question ;)
does "perfectly balanced" always means to make the opponent indifferent between calling and folding?
so if I want my valuebetsize to be 1/2pot - I have to reduce my vbet - bluff frequency to 3:1 right ?

third: by saying villian is polarized on the river I initially meant something like he´s checking to fold his air or he´s checking to call - but probablly knows what he´s doing BEFORE checking. (to simplify let´s say he never c/r)
to give a example: I found this hand quite interesting and illustrates my question well:
http://www.runitonce.com/plo/1020-hu-plo-river/

it is a spot where we are somewhat polarized (not sure if it´s the right word here?) between draws without sd value, straights and 2pairs which are good enough to valuebet.
at the same time villian probably knows what he´s going to do if we bet.

in this thread they are talking about numbers how often you could/should bluff..
so: the first thing is to figure out how light I want to valuebet and in what size, then I could use odds oracle to find out how often I´ve got a hand to valuebet, and lastly I choose the right bluff ratio to make my opponent indifferent between calling and folding - is this the way to go?

I think he cannot answer that :D

one quick thing: I dont really understand how you come to the number of -5BB/100 when folding SBvsBB?
isn´t it the same situation like folding to a 3bet after opening where it´s -400bb/100 if u open 4bb.
so isn´t it in this SB spot -50BB/100?

well hard to make a comment on that..there is a lot of "you expect him to do that and this" in your post.
It yould be a huge laydown and its always very hard to say if he´s capable of that.
But why not just c/c turn and river and letting him bluff in this way? this also reps fullhouses on the river where you could lead to fold out A-flush

1 .
well he is 3betting 30% and cbets a lot and 2nd barrels a lot..so I think you aren´t crushed by his range that often, especially because (like phil said) people are 2nd barreling on pairing turns a lot. from his perspective he is trying to fold out your KQ, T9, Q9
I think your raise will show immediate profit BUT obv it depends a lot what he thinks how you would play 2pairs and sets on the flop.
And would you raise with only trips (+gutshot which you would have most of the time) on the turn?

I have mixed feelings about raising JT and J7 on the turn, on the one hand I want to call and let him barrel or c/c on the river with a straight, on the other hand it´s nice to through in bluffs in this spot.
So I think to keep balanced and accomplish both its important to also raise JT here.
It will keep the pressure high if he´s got 98, AA etc and forces him to pay you off sometimes, make bad laydowns etc.
given that..

2. I think yes you should shove the river as a bluff sometimes to prevent him from being able to turn call with AA and knows he´ll see the showdown if you bluff.
I like the bluff on K and Q given that you will block a T, K, and Q in that spot, so it very hard for him to have a boat here. it also looks like bad cards to bluff since it helps both of your ranges and sometimes makes him the nutstraight etc.
not sure if Im correct here but these are my thoughts ;)

agreed

turn is close between call and fold vs an unknown...In general people would give up on the river on these limits der bluffs and semi bluff, so all in all I be a bit more inclined to call than to fold...but I guess in this case both plays have their merits...flop I dont like the c/c line with our hand, either leading or c/r is a nice option here...I would c/r here, cause weaker straight draws can call you here if c/r on the smaller site and also hand we fold hands out with solid equity (he should fold here aces or kings with not much to got with)

I am also in the 4bet camp, simply for the reason that I dont want to play with that a hand a 3bet spot ooP. Flop check is standard, turn leading or turn c/c are both good options. After the raise of course its an easy call and the river can be of course a tough decision. Fold on any flush+str. card, fold on a flush card (people dont tend to be that cards too much), fold on a Q and a 7. If a non scare card hits I really also like leading the river, cause I expect like calls with weaker 8s or a AA,KK,QQ hand (also I would lead when an unlikely str. card hits)

his 4bet is super standard with just a bit mor than a pot size bet left on the flop. If you should check or jam into depends in these 4bet spots on the board texture and the villain. On this board I think both plays are ok, cause he should stack off here with his whole 4bet range (given that a Q and an 8 hit).

I like the flop sizing with your hand, most people make the mistake to bet very hard here and chase weaker flushdraws away. I think the only option on the turn is to raise here. But if you think lucyloose is very loose with his flushdraws (or two pair with weak flushdraw) i would raise a smaller amount like 62 (or even smaller) on the turn. Preflop is standard.

I think those boards to play in 3bet spots HU or multiway are often underated by video producer, because especiallly for unexperienced players (but also for experienced players) they are often very hard to play. If you play these boards HU you should think about your gameplan against different types of opponnents (the nits, the loose ones, the aggro ones) and how to react to them. Betsizing, barreling and having a check/calling range (and a check behind range) are the key concepts I would say to get comfortable for thats boards with your range. In 3bet 3way pots you have to also take a close look against which opponents you like to bluff on thats board or against which you have to value barrelling lighter. Like always there are more good flush flop and flush flops you just like to check/fold (HU also and of course 3way). A flush flop like Q42sss is a lot different than QJ8sss.

preflop: definitely fold, our hand is not strong enough to cold call a 3bet here (phil explained it very well why this the case above)
flop: think a check is fine here given we don't even have a big nut str. draw on a flushdraw board
turn: either betting out or c/r a BTNs bet is here a good option, our cold calling 3betting range should hit that flop very hard so our turn bet or c/r looks very strong (even if these guys knows we can bluff here good)
river: when BTN calls the turn I just nearly see only flushes in his range and after his river bet I can only imagine that he has a K high flush which wants value from lower flushes. To be honest I don*t see much other combinations who can value bet here (beside straight flush combination), maybe he could have AQJ8 which check behind turn and take that line (that would also make sense)

bit hard to comment without knowing the opponent tendencies preflop and in general but I give it a try. 0815 player at that limit is valueraising at turn here almost only AAxx, QQxxss and A6....obv. we have an ace and a Q blocker card which make these combinations not super likely but I think with his line he can wrap all 3 value hands...a weakish AAxx hand which he didn*t want to 3bet preflop, QQxxss hand which he just called preflop and on the flop (because he had a flush to go with and don't want to fold to a half posize bet) and of course A6, which just slowplayed the flop and hoped to get a 2nd barrel from you...I would personally dont give him much 6s here for a value raise, so in my opinion he has these 3 combinations or a bluff (cause he thought you are weak here)

I would fold here, but if I call the turn I would definetely fold the river, cause I don*t see him 2nd bluff barreling on the river here