Prangman 2

please learn how to use apostrophes correctly

The burglar's key - possessive use
It's raining - substitutive use

MTTs and SNGs - no apostrophe

Are you going to the shop's = NO!

p.s. there are plenty of good videos

"Oh no!"

on the river

previous streets are just ...so confusing

I don't think you can if not completely polarised, especially if villain has some bluffcatchers that beat your value. I guess you would have to choose an overall range {bluff, value} that causes villain to be BE against if calling with a specific bluffcatchers? (kinda tough).

Otherwise OBF would just be the pot odds you are offering to your opponent.

big up Beyond Good and Evil man Mr Sneeze. Said from the heart.

someone would have to knock me out to stop me calling it off

you have to call 10bb to win a pot of ~23.5, so you need around 42.5%.
looking at a 10bb push/fold, btn should be shoving around
22+,Ax+,K2s+,K8o+,Q6s+,Q9o+,J7s+,J9o+,T7s+,T9o,96s+,86s+,75s+,65s
and A5s has around 54% against this range.

but what is more important are the relative stack sizes - is everyone short... what are the money jumps/ people left, how much have people been folding to shortstack shoves... etc

it's probably slightly chip+ ev to call, but probably better to wait for a better spot

Was there a part 4?

as an aside regarding the 88 hand, even if villain only reshoves {88+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+} which is really way tight, you are about break even on this call

the 88 hand, definately think you have to call. its only 15bb so you are getting a price of around 19.5:13 or ~40%, and against a decent re-shove range you should have more than enough equity to call. Against something random like {22+,A8s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,ATo+,KTo+,QJo} you have 52%.

The A7o hand is pretty loose - a lot of Ace hands villain calls with have you in bad shape, and if you are shoving as wide as A7o, you are shoving way loads of Ace raggy hands. As soon as I see a player make a shove like this, I take a note straight away because you can exploit this.
You have 15bb in this spot and can see quite a few more hands before it's panic stations time. I think you can let this one go and wait for another spot.

The KQo hand.... depends on what is going on and how tight the villain is, but i think i would reshove this

apparently "right off the bat" came from 19th century Australia. Think it might be a cricket thang.

your probably right. after all I don't know anything about the opponent and there are loads of suspect call machines at 10NL.

I guess I wanted to explore other options to motivate myself to start posting hands more.

Oh I see.

Well based on the post I chose {KK (3),QTs (4), 50%QTo (6) } or 13 value combinations.

(I alternate between having an offsuit hand with or without a heart or a club or whatever to be opening 6 combos instead of 12 if I want to cut down the # of these combos - I don't always open QTo in MP, but I don't really want to get into that now)

and to find the total number of combinations it's (no#valuecombos) / (1-OBF) since 1-OBF is the % of time we are valuebetting. 13/0.7 is around 19.

I think that when we shove here for this size we are only getting looked up by QT when we assume (fairly i believe) that villain doesn't get to the river with sets.

I think this is the reason that I'm not sure whether I like the shove with KK so much (even though it seems duper standard as it is the 2nd nuts). With this specific hand in this situation and at this stake level, I think it is ambitious to get called by the 1 combo of KJs that will probably fold to this betsize anyway - which would make a check more +ev than a shove, but if we are getting called by hands other than QTs when we bet smaller, wouldn't it be most +ev to do so?.

If villain is overfolding to a shove this much I think betting really small with our strong&less-than-nut hands might be better, and we can shove all of our non-showdown hands (and QT) to exploit the overfolding (or a less extreme exploit like all non Ac hands as we can still win at SD vs T8 and some FD by checking).

yes the shove is 1.14x pot so OBF [ X/(2X+Y) ] is (1/ (2.28+1)) or 30% - hence the 6 combos out of 19.

Yes and your river bluffs should be the same % as the pot odds you offer (assuming no villain bluff-catchers beat any of your value combos [and your bluffs don't beat their bluff-catchers]) if you want to make them indifferent to folding. So for the pot sized bet villain should have 33% equity to call - that 33% being the % that these bluff hands are in your river betting range

I would exploititatively 4bet all blocker bluff candidates against obv. 3 betting villains (BTN vs UTG/MP), (BTN vs CO) and (SB vs BB).

I've noticed that as the 3 bettors in these spots (especially at 10NL) are throwing a lot of 3bets in there, but are often not comfortable bet/shoving weaker than KK+ often, and I think medium adjustments such as 4 betting a few more combinations than AQo and AJo UTG would show a tidy profit.

(which would be way more than the recommended 40% Bluff portion of MDF~30% 3bet-defend-with-4bet range of say a reasonable ~15% UTG range... or 1.8% of hands, or 24 combos: assuming a 4bet/call with {AK,QQ+} or 32 combinations (also assuming pot sized 3 bet and 3x open).

Stick a few more blocker 4 bet bluffs, and stick in 23 - 25 bb and you should make a fair profit out of those 4-8 extra combinations against those that aren't willing to back up wide 3 bets with a wider value range.

Another spot is exploitatively 3 betting all major trash (93o etc) in BB vs a 3x raise in the SB and just check give up unless good things happen. I don't think there is nearly enough defending vs BB 3bets.

"I only had this table up because I didn't know it was NLO8" 

Accidentally registering for PLO and NLO8 tourneys *oops misclick* is so painful -sigh-

hi owen,

as to feedback on the pace of the video - i think a mix between all hands and all played would be best - so if there are some spots where hero hasn't VPIPd when you think it is a good spot then include, but otherwise stick to hands where we have VPIPd, might be a little faster paced (although I do like hearing the surprised reaction you have when you see something you aren't expecting!)

O8 MTTs, particularly how to play 5 - 15bb stacks

I have a macro that can calculate - based on MOP what our MDF for a 4 bet or fold OOP strategy vs different 3 bet sizes if anyone wants to PM me (provided you have Excel). 

It also calculates what % of that range we can have as 4bet bluffs based on the Risk/Reward ratio we give ourselves on our 4bet sizing.

Unfortunately it's really REALLY hard to solve fully (for IP) as we would need to know the equity a 5bet {value, bluffs} shove would have vs. our 4bet/calling range in order to calculate IP's optimal 3bet bluff/value mix, but it should be useful to get used to the math behind it, and definately useful for finding our MDF as an OOP opener deciding what % of their opens to defend.

The pot sizes based on whatever positions open/defend are written into it.

I'd like to mod it for situations like squeezes and things but it gives me mucho headaches trying to code based on memory (cos I make these things at work when I should be working).

But if anyone can think of another program for a math based situation they would like to solve let me know because I can't think of what to do next.

I do feel like there are more useful thigns to do with my time though!

I have a user-unfriendly macro that does the math for me based on the 3/4/5betsizes and effective stacks and MDFs if you want to PM me to get it. BEWARE though as it was more of an exercise to force myself to have to learn how the math worked rather than for it being that useful !!!

Say for sake of argument we limit our 4bet bet size to give villain pot odds between 2.25:1 and 3.25:1. I plug the numbers in and On this size our optimal value-hand contribution turns out to be between 51% - 56%, which gives us between 9 - 12 combinations of 4 bet bluffs with a value range of 12 {AA KK}.

We can even squeeze it up to (34.5 + 6.5)/6.5 : 1 or 6.3:1 for a min clickback 4bet, giving us up to 14 and a half combinations.

oops just saw the post above. 

hi there. you mentioned that in your X/R range you needed about twice as many combinations of semibluffs to value hands. Can you briefly explain how to calculate the correct number based on the size of your checkraise?

Or are we aiming to balance out our overall equity (of bluffs and value) to equal the pot odds we are offering villain? (I get confused on keeping numbers of hand combinations in check when there are more cards to come!)

(Really enjoying the vids btw)

hi jj - I wouldn't wan't to be playing 5d 3c 5s Qc unless I was in the SB and getting odds of silly:1

Whenever we hit our set it will be on a low board, and we'll be hoping for the low runout to brick out otherwise we only win half, and even then we will be losing to flushes and straights often on certain runouts.

Also, say if you and villain both have a made low and a pair, when we make a pair with a WXYZ hand we have 11 ways to make 2 pair or trips, but when we have a XYZZ hand we only have 7 pair or trips outs. 

As for limit I'm terrible at limit games (I prefer PLO8) so I can't really help

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I seem to be getting this message?

+1: have to learn things somewhere

"admitting ignorance is the path to knowledge"

ah. so it does. tanks.