event78

Is the river bet good?

you're welcome :)

Because calling 22-66 is pretty bad (no playability) but sure he could. We have no reads so we have to use the stats and what we usually see from a 100nl reg.

Shove AK QQ for a 6% 3bet range , shove AK JJ for a 6.5% 3bet range, shove AKo AQs TT for a 8.5% 3bet range, shove AQ TT for a 10.5% 3bet range (you can flat some 4bet IP as well).

I don't know if you meant that you fold to much to 4bet deep.

So construct your range correctly to 5bet enough. AK QQ for 6%, AK JJ for 6.5%, AKo AQs TT for 8.5%, AQ TT for 10.5% (you can flat some 4bet IP as well).

Vilain is CO, I don't know his tendencies but most regs calling range is JJ-77 AQ/AJ/AT/KQ?/KQs/QJs/JTs/T9s (+slowplays, AK/QQ). With the Qc you block almost all flushes (unless his 3bet calling range is loose Axs/sc).
Flop he's likely to raise JJ/TT (many bad turns which could kill his action) and he doesn't have many two pairs combos (JTs = 2combos, KJs?). I think you need to bet to get value from pair+Ac/trips/TP (he's likely to pot control IP).

Vilain is going to value thin but if you expect him to bluff as well; fold AK, call AQ/slowplays (A3s/AA)?

Vilain is probably more likely to check back Ah (flop and turn), Kh (flop) than other R hands.

Yes not happy about the call but he could turn 99/TT/JJ into bluff to get you off Qx (Kx).

It's not likely he floats the flop with 66 as his fold to cbet is really high. Do you think he plays KQ like this and bet/call? I think he'd raise smaller with KQ to induce more calls; sizing = more polarised so I'd just call.

I'd cbet bigger against a tag fish because he won't adjust (he'll call the same range and probably raise the same range as well).

I don't understand why you are using the x/R flop stat to make assumptions on his turn x/R and river x/R. Use all the stats to get an idea of his game. We know he's tight from the blinds which means that he doesn't adjust against BU steals. He probably plays his cards or he has a lot of tables. His calling range is mainly broadways and PP. He's tight so it's normal that his WWSF is high because he goes to the flop with a stronger range than a lot of regs.

His X/R flop is high but his fold to cbet is very high so we can expect his X/R range to be mainly value hands or draws (78s/fd/straight draw/gutshots). Therefore his X/Calling range is mainly sd (Kx/99/TT/JJ?) because he folds a lot to cbet (no floats) so get value turn. Unless he X/R TP flop or turns mid hands into bluff I don't expect him to raise very often turn.

No reason to check turn without a read that he's aggro. His stats indicate that he's passive and calling so keep betting for value against his draws/Jx. It's way better to check AJ/KJ turn in this spot cause you block J and therefore he has more draws in his range.

As played without a read it's hard to fold river, you took this line cause there are a lot of draws in his range so don't fold when it bricks off.

It's never bad to flat QQ in this spot as you keep worse hands in his range and you are IP.

Snap fold flop, it's the bottom of your value range plus you are not far ahead when you have the best hand (AA/JJ/AJs?/flushes crush your hand).

I think your turn/river play depends on his UTG opening range and if he opens KQo (the case here? because there is a fish in the blind?). Multiway with a fish in the pot I think he doesnt always bet his draws (except big combodraws) because there is no FE (you rep a draw, Kx, 88/TT so you probably won't fold turn and we expect the fish to call light turn). If he doesn't open KQo UTG, he won't value enough hands that you beat turn (4combos KQs/KJs) so you don't have enough equity to call turn (+ not sure you will realise your equity river).

If he doesn't open KQo pre, he probably won't have enough bluffcatchers river (4combos KJs/KQs). How often does he bluffcatch with AA/KK (blocks most Kx)? He could take this line with these hands cause as you said you have a lot of draws, when he 3barrels his range looks so strong and he protects his c/f range. How often does he go for a c/r with sets/two pairs?

In a vacuum I like your line. I expect most regs to value river AA/set against Kx, to take this line with KQ/KJs and always c/c with these hands.

We are IP but I still think he is gonna call very often OOP deep.

Not sure about your sizing preflop, because you're deep you should 4bet a bit bigger without read?

Most regs don't c/r TP deep in 4bets pot so his value range river is 44/66/QQ/Q6s?/Q4s?/57s?/KK? (very unlikely).I expect him to bet his boats sometimes to build the pot and to get value from draws/Qx/OVP (but a c/r turn for value is not impossible). Your range looks like AA/KK (Qx/fd sometimes). He needs to delay bluff river (if he thinks you have a lot of missdraws river and/or that you bet your Qx most of the time turn and/or he can get you off AA/KK) cause I don't think he value bets worse.

Close spot, I think it's not bad to fold here without reads cause most people don't fold AA/KK in this spot and not so many regs bluff with this line when your hand looks like KK/AA and it's so easy to click call. It's not like you're getting exploited cause you'd call with your Qx hands/AA/KK without a heart maybe?.

My bad I didn't see the sizing preflop, if you think he can float then c/c.

I think you have to put him on a range preflop. The range I see the most from regs who flat 4bet is 88-JJ AQ/AJs + spazz. He has a tight 3bet and we don't have any read that he calls 4bets light so I'd put him on TT-QQ/AQ/AK (KK/AA sometimes; AK/QQ not all the time but likely vs MP and the fact that he's a tight).

I think cbetting the flop is ok, checking is fine too (we have 1/2streets of value but he doesn't have bluffs). As played I'd c/f turn cause he's not gonna bet his sd QQ/JJ/TT IP and by betting you overplay your hand.

It's a bad card to 3b bluff so in general regs are not likely to bluff river on this card but he can value worse (KT/K9/Kxs) enough to make it a call. You don't have any reads on him so we could be wrong and he could be bluffing; it's the top of your range (you'll raise 44/KQ sometimes on the flop; you'll 3bet AK/KK/QQ preflop most of the time) and you block Kx.

24-28 is fine I think, in a vacuum I think you're better off betting big cause all draws missed and there are less combos of Kx so he's likely to bluffcatch regardless of the bet size. If I thought he'd barrels merged (Qx/JJ)/likely to bet his Kx hand then I'd value AQ river. His sizings are kinda weak which indicates than he could have QT/AQ and that he's less likely to have a strong hand on this drawy flop.
I'd bluff small to make him fold his missdraws/barrels that he's giving up now (especially if I think he's polarized to cbet/barrel). I wouldn't want to be balanced in this case cause you don't have many hands on him yet.

CO calling's range preflop 22-AA, AK/AQ/AJs; If you have a tight and nitty image I think he's likely to slowplay preflop (he doesn't 3bet vs EP anyway) and won't try to fight flop so his raising range is very strong (sets/combodraws and maybe AA/AK). Turn, I think he calls AhQh/AhJh, TT/77 and AK/AA (if he raised those hands flop). River, he probably calls TT/77 (maybe AA/AK). I expect him to fold AhJh/AhQh as he blocks your semibluffs and your line looks strong.

Hero reps AK/KQs/Ahxh/JhQh? when he leads turn. Depending on how you play flop with your sets/big draws, you could lead those turn. River, when you shove you look really strong AK/KK (maybe 77/TT but most people will reraise flop). You probably won't value KQ and Ax.

I think it's a fold flop with AK/KQs in your shoes because you don't have enough equity against his raising range but I put it in your range because I analyzed this hand in a vacuum from what I think most regs at 100nl would do.

It depends on his range to call the 3bet, on his postflop tendencies in 3bet pot and your image. Here I think it's not bad to x/f a lot when you don't hit the flop because he's CO (probably tighter than BU) and he folds a ton to 3bet (77%). Against a reg with a 55 to 70% fold to 3bet, it's another story.

But he has a fold to 3bet of 77%, a fold to cbet of 50%; both stats are pretty high for a reg plus a normal raise % (16% is not that high). It's just one stat and if he is really tight when he gets postflop (high fold to 3bet, low 3bet, std pfr) then it's logical that he has a high Agg%.

Against a tight honest player, I'd c/f or cbet/fold; c/r could be ok if you think he pot control his OVP TT-QQ and b/f all the rest but here, you don't have this read and you know that he has a tight range to get to the flop so I wouldn't mess around.

The problem is that you have no idea of his raising range. He could be raising OVP for value/protection to avoid difficult decisions turn/river or to induce against 2overs (I often see this play from tight regs; call pre w/ 88-QQ and raise on none K/A flops). He could rarely raise this flop but actually never as a bluff. If he folds a lot preflop it's probably because he thinks you have a strong range to 3bet him or he doesn't care and doesn't want to fight for this pot preflop, so it doesn't make sense for him to get crazy postflop when he thinks you have a strong range.

I'd add some slowplays AK/QQ/KK/AA in his range for calling, something like AQ AJs 99-JJ/QQ (AK/KK/AA sometimes). I dont know where you see he's aggro, according to his postflop stats he seems honest (he folds a lot preflop so his range is stronger and weaker postflop?).
I would cbet if I thought he was really weak postflop and folded AQ/AJs.

As played it's a spew, you don't have any reads on his raising range (he needs to bluff all his AQ/AJs and not to raise OVP). You 3bet preflop because he folds a lot preflop and cbet cause he folds 50% to cbet (close cause his 3bet calling range is strong) so you can't say that he's aggro.

Great video James :)

But u need to take his pfr SB and anyway your sample is too small.

It depends on the player. I think there are 2categories: some who raise a lot of hands and limps a lot (it's mainly suited hands like Axs/Kxs/Qxs, some offsuit connected hands Q9o/J9o/T7o/98o/97o, suited connectors/gappers T8s/97s/96s and weak PP); others who only raise strong hands (PFR of 3-5) and limp stronger range (broadways/PP). Against the last category you need to be careful and not isolate them too wide (you often see them l/c strong hands such as AQ/KQ/KJ and trap AA/KK as well). I think you see more often the first type.

It depends on how loose is limping range is but it hits all his sc/PP/offsuit connected garbage and a lot of sc/PP/Axs/Kxs/Qxs (gutshot/fd). 79o/T8o/68s/6Ts/66/88 are probably in his range, + all big combodraws/fd + 2overs and/or gutshot. A board like KcTc2x usually hits way less his limping range (except if he is in the first category).

Def raise bigger. Do you stack off as a default against fishes in this spot? Do you assume they often raise top pairs/draws?

It's a flop that hits well his limping/calling range (straight/two pairs/sets/big combodraws). Without reads, I usually assume that a limper is on the passive side, so he won't raise weak draws/top pairs which makes a reraise bad (not enough equity).

I'm not saying that I'm cbetting because I think a 2barrel is profitable, but that we have a bit of equity and FE turn on overs when called by one player make it better than cbetting the flop with 45s for example.
I meant that in my opinion, a cbet is profitable cause I think they have wide ranges (BU more) and we only need them to fold 33% of the time (broadways/random crap).

It's zoom so BB can't speed fold. In this exact spot (BB vs SB/BU) I see a lot of random cold calls of 3bets from bad players.

I think it's close river cause he needs to bluffcatch with Ax (even KK/Qx) because there aren't enough 2 pairs combos 56s/A6s/A5s/A9s/Q9s compared to AA/QQ/55/66/78s (if vilain was BU, I would more easily shove river cause of more 2 pairs combos) so he needs to bluffcatch with AK/AJ/AT...
I disagree, without any history/dynamic against a std grinder, I get a lot of folds in this spot when I bluff raise river probably because most regs assume that at 100nl there aren't enough bluff raises river (probably a correct assumption). Vilain may expect you to play aggressively your draw flop or turn (at least sometimes) you rep really well AQ/set, so to bluffcatch with Ax he needs to put you on a double float OOP (JT/KT/KJ or a Qx/PP turned into bluff) or that you fastplay your big hand very often flop or turn.

I think you took the best line in a vacuum against a reg, without history you probably wouldn't induce enough 4bet bluff/lighter for value cause it's not a the best spot for resteal (BBvsCO). Flop I wouldn't c/r for value cause you don't have any c/r dynamic so he's probably less likely to float your c/r and you don't know his range for cbetting (polarized = less good); moreover, nothing prevents you from DBing turn on cards you don't expect him to bluff. Turn is the best card for you cause I expect him to bluff turn and river. I wouldn't raise turn for protection (you block some Ax/Qx) cause it's a perfect spot for him to value thin and bluff river.

BU: almost all his raising range (no info on his raising range though), BB: broadways/PP and some sc.
When one player calls the flop I think his range is defined PP/Ax/3x/8x (some floats from BU?) so I think we can barrel on A/Q/J. These cards don't hit their calling range on the flop and a bad player often gives you credit for having it. You don't have reads, just that they are bad players so we have to play in a vacuum against them.

If I didn't know that they were bad players, I wouldn't cbet this flop. In general, I see bad players cold calling 3bets way lighter than regs (and slowplays less often) so you have more FE postflop but I can be wrong (especially in this spot, small raise preflop which means smaller 3bet, he is last to act and has position on you).

I would cbet in this spot because I think i have enough FE, the flop is dry and their ranges enough weak (fish often cold calls 3bet with a wide range). We have some equity and can barrel a lot of turns if called by one player.