calculatedgamble

@bdon22

The 14k hands unfortunately come from bought HH, I have very little to offer as far as dynamics/reads,sorry.

I am not well versed in game theory principles (although I am working hard at it), but yes it does seem that by shoving my draws but betting halfpot with my made hands, I have created an imbalance for myself. It does kinda seem like betting ~100~140 would be enough to get the overcards out if I were holding Jhi, but then again it might call once to see if I giveup riv+may improve, and maybe so does 8x or 9x which probably fold right away to a turn jam. I guess jamming some bluffs might come at the price of having to sighjam QQ.

Thank you for your input. I would flat versus most villains given positions/stacks but a quick glance at the HUD in-session to see his 3bet/3betvs stats as well as his fold to 4bet made me weigh this option more heavily. Given similar stats, would you advocate the same flat pf if it were BTNvSB?

It seems as if in my mind, 4betting is the tougher, yet superior, play but calling the 3bet makes life super easy, although allowing hands to realize equity with great odds on our stack. I have no evidence but a hunch to support this tho :/

As for the turn, assuming betting is essentially a negative freeroll that denies equity/wins us the pot, wouldn't choosing a smaller sizing that allows some of his weakmade hands (5bet bluffs that flopped a pair, Ahighs) be superior? Assuming we were to jam our whole stack anyways, wouldnt betting small and calling a shove as well as betting small and just getting called, possibly losing the pot on some rivers be the way to go?

Thanks again!!

Ty Nick. Any thoughts on turnplay? chk, bc or bf?

I see lots of merit to betting the flop, primarily that I expect most villains to cbet air as well as comfortably vbet KKAA at least some non-negligible(sp?) % of the time, meaning you are good at a pretty high rate, but also are getting called pretty much always. (Although @ 200 6m, it might be too thin to b/b/shv?). I would also favor a large sizing, given that I will have a very narrow range of very few bluffs and very few value hands for betting, and both of those want to use big sizings against JJ-. My logic might be off tho, criticism welcome once again!! Thoughts anyone???

The turn sizing I would be very interested to hear thoughts on; it seems a protection bet from the middling parts of our range would only accomplish charging/denying ~13% equity against AK/AJ (going with the assumption again that V cbets most of his air on flop) and vtown itself vs weak Qx, JJTT and slowplays. Therefore, I think our turnbetting range should be polar with KQ probably being the bottom of our range, 2pairs, sets and a bunch of turned equity, again going with a large pot/near pot sizing which works well for both ends of our polar range. Thoughts anyone??

River : kinda seems like a fuckyou bluff, with JJ-, 7x, 2x AK-AJhi. I would know, I make a lot of fuckyou bluffs :(

He would have to check KKAA again, on a turn that makes the board volatile and likely to change by the river, not checkraise it vs a sizing that couldn't look more like weak showdown (and not like a bluff/semibluff at all), and check river again hoping you somehow bet said weak showdown. His line is consistent with a Q's full line from some 200nl regs but you block it, plus block AA, plus took deceptive line, plus inducey sizings, plus top of your range = call all day for me.

My 2 cents, please anyone feel free to reply that anything you disagree/find incorrect with my reasoning!!

Coming from a HU background, I would normally go for a cc cc cr line. However, in my (relatively short) experience at 200z, my flop/turn slowplays are getting owned by villains not vbetting thin on rivers. Hence we should either a)cr or b)donk at some point.

a.1)Someone suggested CR'ing the flop; I feel like checkraising on the flop is too loose, yes we most likely have a clean 5outer and can barrell it off on some runouts, but intuitively I feel as though we have many better bluffing hands, and if we are bluffing all the way down to btm pair/no bdfd we are probably putting too much money in bad. Also, I wouldn't automatically assume I can get an overpair to fold vs a 200z reg.

a.2)CR turn. Yes, away from the tables it would appear that most of our semibluffing hands would choose to start applying pressure on the flop and not particularly on this turn, but at the same time (especially in play with limited time to think) you are repping very few 3x, could still have a draw in V's eyes, heck, V could have a draw himself and call/shoveover, and most importantly, assuming villain will checkback his overpairs a high % of the time on the river, the pot is already at its apex if you do not CR, assuming you are not donking rivers.

b.1)donking turn. Seems like you'd get called twice on most runouts, and just added a street of value from the initial cc cc c(?) line, and could now take the lead with str8draws/marginal FDs that didn't wanna bloat the pot on the flop by CRing but would like initiative. Not sure about this one, would like to hear thoughts lol.

b.2)donking river (possibly for an overbet). Interesting non-standard option. I am still green wrt GTO/balance concepts, but it would seem that on bricks, leading with an over-the-pot size with your whiffed draws and balancing it with boats/trips could come in handy. On a non-broadway 3flush, perhaps leading your trips/flushes/FH for a normal sizing as well as whiffed OEs, not sold on this last one tho.

Criticism is more than welcome. Thanks.