Vheissu

Why is call bad?

X/c is a reasonable option though, right? Flop, that is.

Hey Djunkell, really promising looking video series. Thanks for the depth of preparation evident in this series, and in that of the last series.

Just realised I only addressed a portion of the post. I think KK is certainly variance if it's losing. In an average situation and for normal full stacks, that's a value raise/4bet jam. If they roll over aces, so be it. As mentioned, QQ and AK are a little loose to always ship preflop.

Stack depth is also a consideration. For >250bb effective, I'm stuffing AA exclusively (readless). 200 is pretty gross, but I'm jamming KK to this point. I need a read to jam QQ for more than say 80 bigs. Likewise AKo. I'll jam AKs for 100 though. Need to ship a little wider than only AA/KK.

Is your total bankroll $35?

Also, just as a friendly FYI, I would be reticent to draw any conclusions from 20 games. Way too few trials for any meaningful data or trends (like breakeven).

Why do you have <100 bb? Everything thing else: I agree with above.

I think wrt ranges that the first set of holdings you assign certainly isn't too wide. Villain is on the BTN, and (assuming a random as there are no reads listed) could reasonably be opening and calling a 3bet in position with all of them. As stated by sweet, you block none of his semibluffs, and the hand is far too strong to be dumped. WP.

Couple of questions: i) why are you assuming villain is playing too many hands (your game plan indicates you consider villain a fish who's getting wildly out of line, but nowhere in the post is that evident that I can see)? ii) when we fire here, holding the absolute worst flush, and villain raises, how can we call off and expect to be ahead?

As for the hand, I think turn is fairly atrocious, as it completes J-10 straights in addition to flushes. Given that we've x/r a kinda wet flop and fired turn on a card which completes the majority of our semibluffs and brings combo draws for our JJh-1010h assuming we were playing them like that on flop, on a board where we could realistically have all sets excepting QQs, I would be bet/folding turn, and planning to do the same on brick rivers, and intending to x/f diamonds.

I expect villain to stack off on the flop with 2p+ hands, and to x/c overpairs and flush draws. Based on what I've said above, I expect him to fold overpairs without diamonds, call overpairs with diamonds and either raise or call flushes. I don't see how villain could bet worse on the flushing river, so I think we have to fold it.

We'd have to check flop, right? Betting flop should remove much of his range which he may fire turn with, shouldn't it? J-10s, J-9s (if he ever has it), A-10s, A-Jo, possibly 33-66/77. So vs an unknown, is there a strong argument for betting flop and checking turn in this exact situation rather than ch flop, fire turn?

But what can villain have which calls flop, doesn't xb turn on this board and is behind aces? And what percentage of those hands aren't getting credibly turned into bluffs on a grossly high number of rivers, allowing hero to showdown aces? It feels calling here requires a pretty specific read that villain is willing and capable of over bluffing.

What sizing would you employ to set up a river jam?

Yeah, I think that without knowing this to be a preferred bluffspot for villain, folding is the correct move.

Cozacu: the river isn't so wet that he should be bluff shipping it facing a river bet from you. I think it does have to be buried, but it is gross.

I think it's an exceptionally weird line to adopt with AA/KK, his FDs are primarily AKs, KQs and perhaps J10s(when he squeezes pre). You block KQs, the board rules out J10dd which he would conceivably barrel OTT and shut down on draw completing rivers. Perhaps he barrels AKdd on turn, he certainly cbets it. I think he would bet sets twice because you so often hit this board strong enough to continue, so I think this line is most likely AK when he squeezes pre and takes this line. It's a gross spot.

I agree with x/c OTR. I think x/r is too thin, and firing on the river is unlikely to ever result in a call with worse. I really dislike the fold.