TheRockyLobster

Thanks for the link. I have no doubt I need to improve a lot, but I'm also fairly sure I'm good enough to beat the stakes I play. I was just trying to articulate my own limited experiences with variance. Being somewhat new to poker I'm very ignorant of variance. Even if it is not something i can control I don't think I should ignore it, but I do agree victimizing myself won't help. I think it's important to spend some time looking at the affects variance has on results because understanding is an important step in acceptance. Studying the game includes more than just learning strategy, you also want to learn about the nature of the game itself. The point of my reply is I don't think I'm "wrong on so many levels". I do think it is important to think about variance. I also agree I do need to take more responsibility for my results and I don't think I should let it affect my mental health, but that's a skill I need to learn. That article you linked looks like a good place to start learning.

Kicker plays on this board means our hand is a clear vbet. This isn't thin at all. I'd bet closer to pot on river.

well at least you've learnt from it. i wouldnt worry too much i've made plenty worst calls and thankfully i still make money. and yeah it's a fold without the Ks blocker.

i think CO range is wide, he is probably going to peel preflop with his entire range he called HJ open so although he has a lot of the nutted hands here he also has a lot of worse hands too. HJ is going to have plenty worse in his calling range so i think bet/folding is best. 

if you aren't sure just choose the observe option and see how completely terrible some of the pool plays. 

basically this is a call if you think CO is shoving as wide as a bare open ended straight draw vs a fish who he probably doesnt have a lot of fold equity against and a reg whose range consists mostly of overpairs. 

fishes opening range isnt all that wide (20%) and being HJ it's probably a bit tighter, he probably limps his weaker hands. So i think it's ok to assume CO flats TT and JJ sometimes. 

All sets are in CO's range here as well as top two pair. Villain being passive and your range looking exactly like an overpair i dont think CO is bluffing enough he just has so much more incentive to flat a draw and keep the fish in the pot. Ks is pretty relevant too because it reduces a lot of the combos of big combo draws he would shove if he was going to shove a draw. I think this is a fold.

have a wank. tilt gone. 

I think they both had 100% fold to 3bet over a small sample ( about 4/4 folds) so i just thought i can auto profit if i squeeze. In game i folded, but i just feel like if i got to this river and x/f i've done something wrong. 

fuck your right for some reason i thought i 3 bet and he called. whoops. I think i confused my flop x/r with a 3bet pre. I have to re think this now. KJ is raising the turn a decent % of the time so im not really scared of that (i also block some combos), Txdd i think would check back flop some % of the time but is still in his range. 97dd makes perfect sense, so do a lot of Kxdd hands. I think the fact i just flatted pre means he has a lot more  flush combos, making my Jd blocker not as powerful. I think it might be a fold then. Or it could be a check on the river. 

i'd also note at those stakes villain will often sloplay a full 

your reasoning for why he can't have a flush is also reasoning for why you can't rep a flush by crai on the river. crai with a severely capped range on the river sounds like a bad idea. Any hand in our range (or at least our perceived range) that that is good enough for a river x/r probably bets flop or turn. 

What worse do you think calls? And how often are you beat when he calls? I think if you break down his most likely calling range on the river you are in pretty bad shape. I would check and fold river.

As played I probably x/f river but i'd actually prefer x/r turn. When you get to the river he just isnt jamming worse for value and so many draws got there on that river. Also when you jam river you are targeting a very small part of his range for which might call. So i think shoving this river is too thin and you are value cutting yourself. 

pf is standard for me, I have to defend this because i'm opening quite wide from the CO it's too far up my opening range to fold, if i folded this villain will most likely be auto profiting with his 3bets. Yes villain will have me dominated sometimes but i also dominate quite a lot of his Kxs that he is 3betting with. I also have position. I'm pretty sure at the time villains stats had him at around a 15-20% 3bet so this was always a defend. I'm all for folding this though pre if villain is a mega nit and i'm almost always going to be crushed.

We aren't expected to bluff it. It's a better card for his range than for ours. I think i do actually prefer a check on the turn and then either a call on the river if he bets or a bet if he checks again.