Skyzoph

Thanks for your thoughts Quark!
You were right, according to cEV results would be better ;-) . That's what I needed to know to be quite about it! :)

Thanks so much buddy, I'm gonna have a look at all of these and comment u back about them for sure, thanks to share it!

Actually ,at the moment I was about to play the less postflop possible, but just because since I knew I'd play near to the optimal ranges, it should be translated as EV+ since there's a lot of people who play pretty far from them... and, meanwhile, I'd have time to do my homework in postflop game.

Its ok to just call pre cause i would like to play a 3b OOP against the chipleader. Postflop id considered to xr (small) cause the board isnt pretty good for us and he will play with icm factor in his side so he can make a secondbarrel easily. Moreover is pretty difficult our hand improves enough to play the turn in this situation...basically we need the jack on the turn.Minraise him could give us some initiative we need to make him fold any hand he didnt hit on the board. Anyone else considered this line on the flop?

Pretty happy that proposal was considered and it could be usefull for other people.

Thanks RIO team!

Did you think about the possibility of check on the turn to have a pot control? Our hand is pretty good after cbetting the flop, 'cause he can defend so wide as u said. A33 is pretty dry, he can defend every pocket pair, broadways, even flush backdoors. So, have a pot control right there i think its so important to dont get in difficulties like this one. Check on the turn, mostly expecting a chk-back and blockerbet on the river seems to be a good line. But as played, good fold for me too.

I do like ur 3bet pre and its size, exactly for the same reason u explained. This 3bet makes ur hand so strong to the villains eyes, and it almost secure you the position post-flop. It makes fold loads of speculative hands in CO or BTN cause they dont wanna get squeezed by original raiser, or trapped by a strong hand from HJ (Hero in this case. Ok, we arent trapping with AJo, but its looks like it).

Our 3bet size puts some Ks good kickers in our range. Aces, kings (and not loads of hands else) i think check back on the flop make sense, cause its how a standard player should play any trips, so im dont dislike to do a delayed cbetin this flop. Of course, im reraising any donkb in the turn, cause its a very strong king what im trying to feign. When he is checking the turn, it seems good get some info where we are exactly, and the river bet has the perfect size to get the villain's fold in a winner hand like medium pocket pair, or even some T.

So, in general im pretty agree with ur line. But looking forward more point of views!!

After write it, aleksandra noticed me (thx alex) I said he is aggro postflop and you didnt tell that. I read that in diagonal and i dont know why i based on it. So there's loads of gutshots i supposed he could reraise, and now im not that agree. Moreover, if he isnt so aggro he surely slowplays (as u said) his diamonds, so finally his range to reraise is smaller. 

I should make some numbers to keep all this info in mind, but im still thinking its a profitable shove.

About ur question, i dont like xcalling line at all, 'cause i still think my hand is better and want to get some value from his draws or Top and middle pairs. Moreover I dont wanna give freecards in a monocolor flop, so i need to protect my hand..But its only my point of view. I'd like that other people participate about this posibility =)

The villain is IP so he isnt xring, but just raising us on the flop.

Anyway, i think the situation is to go in or fold on the flop. When we are calling the flop, whats the plan? i mean, shove on any turn, continue only if we hit then,..? it seems it is a non-plan calling and we'll see then...thoughts which usually arent good (in this case that complete X on the turn comes and we fold). I think, right there, there are loads of turns which wont say anything..so id be about to take the decision on the flop. Imo, its to go in cause he has at least a very wide range, and theres loads of combos that are behind us..

I did some numbers quickly, .. hopefully i didnt make any mistake cause of the hurry)

POT ON THE FLOP: 6K + 5K(DONKBET) + 16K (VALLAIN RAISE) = 27K

WHEN WE GO IN WE RISK 33K(40k-2k from bb-5donkbet) TO PLAY FOR A 82K POT.

I suppose a good range to limp and reraise on the flop, since u describe him like a limper and pretty aggro postflop could be:
55,Ad5d,Ad4d,Ad3d,Ad2d,Kd8d,Kd7d,Kd6d,Kd5d,Kd4d,Kd3d,Kd2d,Q8s-Q7s,Qd6d,Qd5d,Qd4d,J9s-J8s,Jd7d,Jd6d,Jd5d,T7s+,97s+,86s+,76s,Ad7c,Ad7h,Ad7s,Ad6c,Ad6h,Ad6s,Ad5c,Ad5h,Ad5s,Ad4c,Ad4h,Ad4s,Ad3c,Ad3h,Ad3s,Ad2c,Ad2h,Ad2s,Kd9c,Kd9h,Kd9s,Kd8c,Kd8h,Kd8s,Kd7c,Kd7h,Kd7s,Kd6c,Kd6h,Kd6s,Kd5c,Kd5h,Kd5s,Q7o+,J8o+,T7o+,97o+,86o+,76o (It has been eliminated that hands which would be raised or folded preflop, and which are into his limp range, i selected the potential hands to reraise for value (diamond suited combos and QTo, any flash draw with Ad or Kd and every openended) or bluff). Right here we have a 50% equity in a pot where we need to put only the 40%, which makes a profitable shove, but he isnt calling everytime, so it will be even better...

The villain's hands that we are under the dog are:
1.UNDERDOG: 55,Ad5d,Ad4d,Ad3d,Ad2d,Kd8d,Kd7d,Kd6d,Kd5d,Kd4d,Kd3d,Kd2d,Qd8d,Qd7d,Qd6d,Qd5d,Qd4d,Jd9d,Jd8d,Jd7d,Jd6d,Jd5d,Td9d,Td8d,Td7d,9d8d,9d7d,8d7d,8d6d,7d6d,QTo. (15,7% TIMES from original range in flop situation). EQUITY: 16%

2. WE LEADS and VILLAIN CALLS:  Qc8c,Qh8h,Qs8s,Jc9c,Jh9h,Js9s,Ad7c,Ad7h,Ad7s,Ad6c,Ad6h,Ad6s,Ad5c,Ad5h,Ad5s,Ad4c,Ad4h,Ad4s,Ad3c,Ad3h,Ad3s,Ad2c,Ad2h,Ad2s,Kd9c,Kd9h,Kd9s,Kd8c,Kd8h,Kd8s,Kd7c,Kd7h,Kd7s,Kd6c,Kd6h,Kd6s,Kd5c,Kd5h,Kd5s,Q9o-Q8o,J9o (I selected every flush draw with Ad or Kd, some TP in his limp range and straig draw (openendeds ~ im not sure at all if he is calling with openendeds, maybe i should take a 50/50 call with them but, anyways, the final result doesnt go so far). (25,56% TIMES from orginal range in flop). Equity: 63%

3. WE LEADS and VILLAIN FOLDS: 1-0.157-0.2556 = 0.5874 ~58,74% of times he's folding.

(1) 0.16*82-0.83*33=13.12-27.39= -14.27

(2) 0.63*82-0.37*33=51.66-12.21=  +39.45

(3) 1*27 = +27

Final result: 0.157*(-14.27)+0.2556*39.45+0.5874*27=-2.24+10.08+15.86=23.7. So it's a clear +EV move.

Plz, if anyone find a mistake just tell me, i did it too quickly and didnt check it (in fact, the result of +ev is bigger than i expected..but i think its +ev anyways).

Looking forward your feedback 

even 111 hands isnt enough, it would be interesting to know how often he folds to cbet, 'cause monotone flops are pretty scary and uncomfortable to play, so if he has a big fold to cbet and he calls, maybe we are under the dog right there. I think i'd take the decision arround this stat/reading 'cause it reduce his wide range to some diamond combos, Adx, (surely any Qdx Jdx could be there too), any King or T. Even we win against Adx, Qdx, Jdx,..i think right now his range contains more winners combos, and he's beting ~70% of the pot. Moreover, if we call and lose the pot we go down to 13bb, so we already are in a shove or fold pre (if we dont we'd have 17 which isnt much better, but well, maybe we could still steal without shovings, what makes feel more comfortable surely)

Otherwise, if he usually floats, im just calling right there, cause now his range is almost as wide as before.. he is looking for what he consider weakness on the turn and try to bluff in the river.

So my decision would be arround how caller is him in postflop game.

Yeah, i used ICMizer but only in a free trial which is limited. Anyways, im quiet agree with the necessity to play backed up in this software.

Lately im focused in ICM concept, cause i cant own it if i dont know how to take the most of it, otherwise i'd be losing money.

Btw, i heard about sngwiz and watched some videos too...im wondering whats better or more appropiate to play, analyze or whatever!

Thanks Nick,

You are completely right on it as always! but i think its not as easy to just turn tighter and thats it. I mean, he quickly noticed (i suppose) the other guys played pretty weak, so he tried to take the most of that. In that stage (antes begins to make the pots more desirable), i need to be constantly increasing my stack, so its necessary to face him usually.

So, we are between dont get in any risk to keep alive in the tourney and, paradoxically, risk to get more chips and keep alive in the tournament too. 

I've been thinking about it these days and i get the conclusion that maybe the key is to recognize these moments and switch quickly from a exploitative play to an optimal one, so can defend from his agressiveness and keep earning more chips. Moreover, i can get some respect, which i consider very important in late stages. Maybe my mistake was to detect it too late and dont adjust properly my range against him.

Anyway, thanks to all of you guys cause of ur thoughts =)

wow man, i was soooooooo far from this while playing. I need to go in depth in ICM concept RIGHT NOW!

As always, thanks a lot for your time Nick! =)

yeah of course i'm based in the strengh of our hand (we have second nuts right there). Moreover i think his range is soo huge right here, and he has lots of hands weaker than ours which maybe he is playing like this aswell. Thats why im calling. Of course am not calling with TP here "cause i dont know what he has".

I do like 3bet-fold this hand. Ok, you're exposed to a 4bet jam from the original raiser, but if you call you're exposed a typical squezze from sb (@Tom M, this squezze would be a shove, so I wont be praying for a squezze hehe).

I mean, i think both call and 3bet/fold are equally good lines here, personally i think i prefer try to take the pot down pre, but if he puts us -in, i just fold and thats all... we can't win every pot.

According to the thoughts which say 3bet/fold is wrong cause we lose 125k instead of 60k, imo its a wrong thought cause if i know he is only moving in a 20% of time (for exemple) we 3bet him, im just 3betting more often to exploit his leak (not everytime cause there are more people behind and all these kind of things), and i dont worry about this 125k i've just lost, cause we are in a +EV situation. Moreover, if we call preflop is expecting to play postflop, which surely u will be at risk in loads of boards, or call some cbets on flop (so u can lose the same amount or more easily). I want to emphasize im not saying to call pre isnt a good line, i only wanna say that do it BECAUSE IT, its a wrong thought.

Great!!

Wow men, thats so insane hahahaha! I do call in this kind of hands...i mean, call to win the pot or 'call of duty' if lose haha.

When i have no information from villain and the line is so awkward like this, i dont waste time guessing or whatever, cause it can be everything: TPLK, twopair, set, someone who wanna feel so cool bluffing like that, ....even it could be Messi and Iniesta's trading card too!

Leaving the joke apart, i do not trust him sincerely...

Maybe i didnt emphasize enough why i thought my fold equity was higher: I think he feels so confortable in this FT, and he has a pretty healthy stack. 

Ok he still has 10bb's left if he loses this, but why to make it so difficult if he is pretty nice in that moment?. Moreover, I suppose he should guess tighter my 4bet-in range cause of ICM factor (maybe i didnt give info enough to demonstrate i know what it is....or maybe he didnt know anything about what was really happening..who knows!)

Buyin was 3€ / size: 829 players

He switched x2,5 and x3 3bets. But we didnt reach the showdown in any x2,5 3bet so i havent got any additional info.

Im not really sure  whats the better option right here. Im slightly about to  fold here only cause of the shortstack. I mean, in the same situation with other players it would be completely different, but right there i knew id be in a flip loads of times, and my chances to win that was so big, cause of the passiveness of the other guys. Maybe i was wrong about my fold equity, if he's instacalling 88, surely he is calling me almost the whole 3bet range... thats difficult!

In the same line, i could think about to fold and keep taking  the most of that weakness of the table... IDK :S

Looking forward to this ICM analysis guys, thx so much!

For me, its well played if its against a 25/19 (for exemple) but When i play against people like a 43/9 (which i suppose his call to a raiser is pretty huge) i consider to raise to 3,5 even 4bbs (its not optimal but its more exploitive)). If he calls to a 3x raise, he will call a 4bb too. In the same line, i think we shoud play samely postflop (50% pot on flop and get in on turn).

His Vpip=43 gives him loads of TPRK (Top pair Ridiculous kicker) or draws which would havent enough equity on the flop and turn and im pretty sure its enough for him to call an allin in the turn.

Even that, im almost sure u'd die right here anyways cause i can imagine his supercall on turn and getting this straight on the river. But if we play a couple of millions times the same hand, i think its more profitable to play like like this.

If we are against a 15% calling range, the equity difference between k7o and 89s isnt so huge to wait and dont shove right now (~32% vs ~36%). If calling ranges get wider to 20%, both of them have the same equity (~36%).

It's different if we were talking about a standard OR with deep effective stack behind, 'cause surely 98s has more playability postflop. But since we are talking about shove or fold pre, I dont see almost any difference between them.

Good job Joao, you rock! LOL :)

Hi Joao, in the link below there's a topic which talk about it. 
http://www.runitonce.com/chatter/mtt-study-group-2/

Im sending you a pm anyways =)

Oh btw, what i explained are only my thoughts (which is possible isnt correct) so plz, if im wrong just say why, thx =)

I guess he is who has k7o :P (the same nickname hehe). 

Anyways, imo its a standard push since our CSI (or M) is arround 2,7. We are in a (wide)push or fold situation.

I did some maths: If we hold k7o, with 5 people left who would call us with top 15% our expected M is 2,8 so its a lil bit profitable shove. If we increase his call range to 20% top hands, the expected  M is 2,7 which give us EV~0. 

So, surely its not a clear case to shove, but how the players till bb arent deep at all, i think we could induce to a mistake arround optimal calling ranges, so id shove it.

theres only one left to complete it :)

In the link below there were people interested in a cash game study group
http://www.runitonce.com/chatter/study-group-2/