PokerJuice

PokerJuice Cloud might be an alternative (19 euro per month).

And if checked to by SB I believe checking is better than betting.

You need ~39% vs SB and have around 29% vs KQ HU. And you are even worse vs sets. On top of that, you have BTN left to act, so I believe it is a relative clear fold.

Calling here is at best break-even HU and it requires you to play perfect postflop where chances are that you (being out of position) will have a harder time playing correct than UTG. And it obviously hurts your EV that MP is all in with a strong range.

The only profitable peel (or shove) situation for you here is, if you can put both players on frequent AA at the same time. And with say a UTG $FI15 range he will only have aces ~5% of the time when MP also has aces, so this is very rare.

Link to PKJ

You have around 9% equity vs. subrange TT+ and "only" ~67% vs. rest of the Villains potential SOR so it is obviously really of great importance how often you are up against TT+.

If we assign main Villain (SB) a preflop range of FI30!AA and give him the (wide) stack off range you suggested, you only have around 43% equity and you need ~48%

So even if this was HU vs. Villain 1 the numbers suggest a fold, and on top of that you risk CO and BTN taking value out of the pot with realistic range of respectively AA and KQJ type hands.

Updated PKJ

/Nikolaj - PokerJuice

Good question Brian!

I just tried a few ranges and wrote down the EV of shove vs. these ranges:

($3b4i)!(aa) => 95$
($3b10i)!(aa) => 89$
($3b15i)!(aa) => 96$
($FI20)!(aa) => 88 $
($FI50)!(aa) => 77$
(100%)!(aa) => 71$

So yes it changes and funny enough the wider range the better Villain is doing on a flop like this. But doubt we can construct a realistic range on this board where Hero can't profitably shove here.

If we put CO on 4% 3 betting range (~70% aces) we have a very marginal +EV shove preflop HU vs. CO - and we will win more money when UTG with a 20% open range and no AA, mistakenly calls it off. Calling however seems even more profitable having CO squeeze UTG on the flop.

On the actual flop CO should shove his entire range and UTG can then profitably shove a range similar to: 64+,hh,3+:74:ss,9+:42+!RR,TT+:ss,53+

Vs these ranges you have around 35% (63% HU vs Villain) so it seems like shoving on the flop is also very profitable.

All in all I think calling flop and shoving flop is the best line unless the ranges I assigned are completely off.

Link to PKJ file

/Nikolaj - PokerJuice

I like to have that hand in your preflop 4 betting range.

On the flop you have 62% equity (if you give him ~10% 3betting range and exclude AA when he don't 5 bet) so c-betting is mandatory. PokerJuice tells that it is +~90$ EV to shove with a perceive range of AA. You can also see that Villain can profitably stack off 28,40% of the time vs that range and when he does (raises), you have average 33% equity.

Personally I like to pot cbet here with my entire range to eliminate some profitable peels but once you have c-betted 100$ and he raises, you need 30% equity, so seems like calling it off is also correct.

Link to PKJ file

P.S. I haven't excluded a fold to 3bet range for Villain and you can argue that there will be some bad QQ hands there which just makes BC even better on flop. Also your AA is above average AA hand since you have some high cards that can serve as blockers to his 2pair outs and give you a backdoor straight.

/Nikolaj - PokerJuice

Is there an overcall from CO before the action gets to you?

Since I'm not active on 2p2 idk where else to look for coaches.

You might find this link usefull: https://pokerjuice.com/coaches/ These are all PLO coaches that have been requested to be listed there and are available for new students. If you click on their "about me" link, you can read more about them, including rate, preferences, language and how to contact them.

Regards
Nikolaj

Hi AOEU!

Only noticed this thread now, but let me try to answer even thought its been a while since you posted.

I don't know if I will call it intelligent, but right now, the best way to add backdoor flush-draw on a say diamond, heart, club flop would be to write dd,hh,cc. If you further more want it to be a double backdoor flush-draw, you would have to type ddhh,ddcc,hhcc. And if the respective flush-draws should be at least J high then you should write: Jdd+:Jhh+,Jdd+:Jcc+,Jhh+:Jcc+

We are actually working on expanding the existing PokerJuice Variables function so you in the future will be able to just type #BDFD and have the possible backdoor flush-draws added. Ill make sure to make a note when this is implemented.

/Nikolaj

I'll start out with your last question since the answer to this affects whether we want to choose option A or B:

What actually happened: hero cbets 1K, button raises to 5K. Hero?

Vs. a villain preflop range of $FI20!$4b2 and a standard raising range of pair+gutshot or better you actually have enough EQ to stack-off (39.60% needed):

You can even improve your EV a little by peeling flop and XF to the 20% worst turn cards without villain being able to exploit it:

With that in mind I lean towards cbetting and choose a strategy similar to option A.

Here is a link to the PKJ file in case someone wants to continue the analysis in PokerJuice.

/Nikolaj

sirin and spassewr: You might be right about majority slowplaying when they have a set here, but also that it does not change the conclusion since it only happens 5% of times. I think however that if you include sets into calling range then XR range becomes too weak. And since hero has to stack off with acces vs SOR of 64+,4+:32+,532+ then I don't see a reason to slowplay sets here.

Vatal: Yes 4+ also includes pocket pairs whereas around 10% has 77-TT without a GS. Some of them are doubled paired of have doubled BD draws so they would probably be calling but the remaining ~5% are probably folding - so it would have been more accurate to exclude them!

Here is an updated PKJ file with the input above.

Unless we know that Villain is unbalanced and (mistakenly) only cbets his stack off range, we should not fold here.

From a BB that overcalls and checks with a very low SPR into 2 deeper players, I think we can assume that he XF all the time; can't really think of a good checking range here. So we can in my opinion exclude him from the calculations.

From a tight MP player we can probably expect a range of something like $FI20:aa and the crucial part is what he c-bets with that size (48% of pot). Hero needs ~39% to stack off (without FE) and if Villain only c-bets a stack-off range of say hh,52+,87+ (aces with either FD, 2p+ or GS), we only have 32% EQ and we can't expect to repair enough by calling, so we should fold since we in this case have 0 FE:

I think the best strategy for Villain is to pot his entire range (which contains AA+) but since he didn't do that we can speculate that he is c-betting this amount with a range of all hands that includes the Ah and in that case we have 37% but we can steal EV by either shoving with our perceived range of hh:(87+,23+,5+),42+ and get some FE:

or we could call and steal some EV by being able to fold to the 23 turn cards that does not give us enough EQ on the turn to stack off:

If we use PokerJuice Peel & Stack off we can see that there is a slight +EV of calling too:

But since Villain is not necessarily committed with his entire range on all turn cards we should take the EV with a grain of salt and therefore I would prefer to shove.

Link to PKJ file

/Nikolaj

You should be, but in this case he is not very likely to be slow playing 2p+ and there are very few hands from his continuation range where the T gives him 2pair. Even vs. say JT98 you are 35% so bet/calling would still not be a big mistake. In general with low SPR where turn gives you redraws and does not complete obvious straight draws, you should just bet again.

Just gonna add:

1) I would personally pot this flop to give you a SPR=~1 on the turn if he calls. I think it is dry enough for you to be able to pot it with most of your range and he only have a stack off range (64+,4+:32+,532+) ~21% of the time +

2) You can actually call it of if he shoves vs your cbet with a perceived stack off range of 64+,4+:32+,532+ (you have 41% EQ vs. that subrange and only need ~34%).

Just ran the hand in PokerJuice which support PastyWhiteDonkey's conclusion, that pot get it in here seems to be the best play on the turn, since you have 66% vs. his range and you just need ~37%:

I have used the following ranges for Villain, which preflop is opened 20% but is not 4betting. On flop he continues with all hands that have a pair or better or a nutshot or better, but I am excluding his stack off range which would be something like all 2 pairs or better, all wraps and all pair + gutshots or better.

As you can see below even if he plays correct vs. your perceived shoving range (AA+,4:32+,AKQ+: Aces, Wraps and Pair+GS) he would have to get it in 75% of the time with an average EQ of 68% in your favor, so you are more value shoving than depending on FE!

So all in all I think that it is a big mistake to XF but XR have some merits too if you believe he would stab almost always because you then get it in vs. a much weaker range than when you pot.

Link to PKJ file

/Nikolaj

Hello ZenFish & Aleksandra!

We kind of had a feeling this was coming actually;) When ZenFish mentions he "is making some life changes" you know he doesn't mean going from 4-tabling to 6-tabling.

Did we mention we have a discount for married couples? :D

Big congratulations and all the best in the future from Morten & Nikolaj!

With a relative bad position I would probably fold preflop as well, but lets have a look at your options facing a c-bet on flop that looks like this being build in PokerJuice Game Builder:

I have given SB a balanced 8% raising range ($3b8o). I think that good regs don't cbet this board liberal so I have given him a Value (C) betting range of: Ass,J5+,63+:ss,J+:Kss+ and vs. this range it is negative EV to shove even if both MP and BTN folds. And they are only likely to do that in around 80% of the time each, if we give them a Ass,J5+,63+:ss,J+:Kss+ stack off range. So I believe raising is a big mistake as you also suspected yourself.

So what is better, folding or calling?

As can be seen from this Range Distribution a very large portion of Villains Cbetting range consists of flush draws.

This also means that you can safely fold any spades on turn + some fives and aces

If this was a HU situation (but with the same ranges) you could profitably call in order to stack off on most turn cards.

Please note that this is only true if Villain is committed with his entire range. In this case I think there is a larger chance of him making a mistake vs. your hand than exploding you so if you where HU I would elect to call.

However, the ~31$ +EV call on flop also requires that it does not hurt your EV that there are 2 players left to act and J5+ alone are represented in ~7% of both players ranges the small EV for peeling is reduced so much by this fact, that folding would be my prefered choice.

/Nikolaj

The last part of your range assigned is T8!K,A. Did you intend it to be T8!(K,A)?

Yes I did, and as you also pointed out, even that range wasn't quite correct. Since the wrong input gives such a misleading result, I have taken the liberty to overwrite the initial analysis and give it another try.

Edit: Original analysis had a (grave) syntax error so this is an updated analysis.

I have assigned the following ranges:

CO:
P: $3b15i
F: Acc,99+,KT,J9+:(cc,T),T8+:(cc,A) ! KT:(cc,99+),QQ:(cc,T)

BTN:
P: $FI15 ! $4b2
F: Acc,99+,KT,J9+:(cc,T),T8+:(cc,A) ! KT:(cc,99+),QQ:(cc,T)

So continuing range of flop for both players would be Nut Flush Draws, Nuts Straight, Sets, 2p with GutShot or FD to go plus 2nd nut straight with FD or Nutshot to go. I have excluded slow playing here for both Nut Straight or Top Set with redraw.

Looking forward from the flop we can see that Jd was one of the 14 "bad" turn cards vs. their ranges but its still relatively close.

When Villain bets and BTN folds you can get it in very profitable if Villain is capable of betting his entire range here, since he would only have filled up around 23% of the time.

So it (obviously) comes down to what leading range you assign Villain on Turn. You describe Villain as a good reg so this would leave out a too wide betting range here since he would know that Jd hits BTNs range much better than his own (since a lot of AA combos are not in BTNs range, but in his own).

I have assigned him a VB range of 99+ and added any J blocker. This gives a negative EV shove for you (even if he stacks off with his entire betting range)

I know some off you thinks folding is just bad but I HAVE TO GIN a flop for it to be good and facing a 3-way all in even with a nut straight+fd vs Higher fd and sets is not so nice.

In this scenario you would have around 39% in a 3 way pot so it's not so bad either :)

A lot of other good things could happen on the flop. like 2p+gs+fd or nut straight + redraw vs. nut straight etc, so folding that hand in that spot would be a big mistake imo.

Hi Suniram,

2 days and no reply? We can't have that :) Please add me on skype (pokerjuice) and I will be happy to walk through the hand with you.

/Morten

@Erdian

There are a lot of factors to take into account here so it is not the easiest hand to analyze but those are often the most interesting so here is how I would go about it:

First I would (re)construct the described scenario in PokerJuice Game Builder to have all the actions, values and ranges available to do the various simulations. It is somewhat modified since straddling is not yet implemented and since 6 way is the limit, but it shouldn't matter for the analysis and conclusion.

Here is a link in case someone wants to continue the analysis: http://hh.pokerjuice.com/hh/G3wPTbtlhg

Now since SB is the only player with AA in his range (I have put him on a PJ 3b8%i) it would make sense to run “shove with perceived range” HU vs. SB to get an idea whether it is +EV limp 3bet here with a perceived range of AA.

I get that there is a 84 usd EV by shoving here (in isolation) and actually, even if SB always have AA, shoving is break even due to the dead money. A small note here is that A986ds type hand is even more +EV here due to card removal effect; I get an EV of 96 usd (2500 trials).

This is not at all enough to conclude what our EV of shoving here because one or more players could potentially call to get it in on the flop OR one or more players could make mistake against your (AA) range but be playing correctly against your hand - like shoving for example AKK2s and QQ76ds :)

The first scenario would leave you in position with your opponents having given you a perceived range that is quite different than your actual holding. Hard to see you make a mistake and they could potentially fold out good EV. Also as can be seen below, it does not hurt you when a typical (over)calling range (like ($0g,$1g)$ss!A,2,3) enters the pot like for example:

About your opponents making mistakes against your range but not vs. your hand that would obviously cost you and as the hand went they both made a bad play vs your range (if it indeed was AA) but a +EV play vs. your actual hand.

So the more you are sure that they will perceive you as AA and play correct vs that range, the more +EV it is to raise and vice versa, the less likely they are the more you should lean towards a call which is obviously also a very profitable spot for you.

/Nikolaj

You can download PPT Odds Oracle. Then go to Tools -> Range Explorer. This will enable you to view every single hand in any range you define:

Hello Brian,

Please add me to skype: PokerJuice

I will be happy to help you out :)

Morten

deadgambino

Not gonna interfere in the PJ/OR debate - but just say that in case you decide for PokerJuice, we offer the following on our yearly plans rest of 2014 (on top of the usual 30% savings):

1 Hour Free PokerJuice Coaching
Rest of 2014 for Free
Free Odds Oracle pro License

For the pro subscription this equals around 37 euro/month + added value (half price for the starter and double for the unlimited). We have a money back guarantee too which expires after 30 days or if you receive the coaching or get the OO pro license.

Cheers
Nikolaj

I have been permitted by admin to post an invitation here in this thread to a (free) webinar that will be held Thursday, 28 August 2014 7:00 pm CET (GMT+02:00). We will (amongst other hands) go more into depth with this exact spot and see if we can reach a conclusion. Feel free to join the webinar.

Thx
Nikolaj

Intuitively I agree with Nikopolidis that fold is correct here since Villain would have so many bluff catchers that he would not turn into a bluff here, limiting his bluffing range considerably.  

I just ran a quick PokerJuice analysis: http://hh.pokerjuice.com/hh/3FChVqhd44

P: $3b12o
F: Continue range: Q+,hh,JT+,9+:T8+ Bet+XR range: 55+,Q+:Ahh,JT+:hh
T: Continue range: Q5+,JT8,Q+:KJ:hh,KK+:J:hh,KK+:JT+ Bet+XR range: 86+,Q7+:hh
R: VB range: J8+ X-range: Q9+ Blockers: K,J

With this input I get that Villains VB range is 64% of his river range. Stack Sizes etc. taken into account he then has license to bluff 28% of his river-range. Even if he bets his entire air-range of 22% (20% if only with blockers) it would not be enough to justify a call.

/Nikolaj