PewPewPew

the 7c is definitely one of the clear-cut value rivjams, as it even blocks Villains 87s and he should have any 8x that arrive at riv except for maybe 98hh or like 86ss, if he calls that wide pre.

hope my comments were useful :)

Hey :) It is kinda hard to judge riverplay if we can't see the rivercard :D

Other than that, a few sidenots on the hand:

1. i think you should 3bet to a bigger sizing pre, being out of position and having a huge range advantage

2. especially without the 6s , your hand makes a perfect c/r on the flop to balance and protect ur checkingrange

3. if you decide to valuebet turn i would size a decent chunk bigger, given the 2 flushdraws and many straightdraws. you should be able to exlude QQ and some% of TT out of his range, but keep in mind that there also quite some stuff that has you beat. he is defending 3 combos 99, ~1.5 combos TT, i would guess at least 3 combos 87s and 3 combos KJs, so yeah... not saying it is not a valuebet, but you have to be careful and be aware against what type of player you are playing. Your hand obviously is very vulnerable and you have to bet basically always, but i would go way bigger, close to potsize.

4. on the river (which we cant see) i am sure SPR is so low that there is no point in checking anymore and we shoulg be able to comfortably valuejam most rivers except for cards like Js/h or Ks/h or i would most often even check As/h ... Other than that we have a valuejam all day every day and force Villain to way more mistakes, given that we are oop.

i like the preflop sqz, dont think you should cbet JT8 though. had a little spare time and its a nice exercise for myself aswell, i have put the spot into PIO for you, as you probably dont have access to it playing 5nl.

a habit one can see is the "problem" of the thought of having "initiative" in a certain spot. many players usually have feeling of being entitled to win the pot more often or something like that because they are the 3bettor or something like this. take into account that PIO doesnt know a thing like "initiative", it just compares EV for all the lines you can take with a hand. this is a GTO perspective. Very good examples are unfavourable boards for UTG raisers for example, playing OOP. on boards like J63 for example, UTG shouldnt have a betting range against a BTNcall, but most people will cbet here very frequently because thats just what you do. you valuebet some Jx hands, your sets, and then fill up with bluffs, etc. PIO suggests to check full range for OOP player as it maximizes EV. This just goes against nature for many people. This just as a sidenote on PIO.

i have tried to guesstimate some reasonable ranges:

Here we have your somewhat reasonable SB-sqzz

And here we go for an estimate for Villains callingrange, i mixed in a little bit of randomness with some infrequent AK-combos etc. i think we can see though that it is mostly pocket pairs and suited broadways with some Ax hands mixed in. Probably not random enough for 5nl-BTNcaller but oh well, we have to start somewhere and i dont wanna throw in some random K6s just for the heck of it.

Now this is the strategy PIO comes up with for the OOP player if i only give it the chance of a 33%pot cbet, which apparently is your strategy, as you said.:

If we go for a way more polar 67%pot bet, strategy changes as follows:

So, going on from your 33% potbet and a call like we face it in your HH, Pio suggests a 98% check for A2hh on the 4h turn, with a mix of check/jam and check/call against a 2/3 potbet from villain. If i simulate a bet on the turn like you played it, PIO suggests a bluff with A2hh on the 9s river for a 50% fequency, so yeah, as played the bluff is kinda okay-ish apparently, not really great though and to be honest you played this hand quite poorly. You should check flop most of the time, IF you bet it then you shouldve checked Turn basically 100% of the time. The board just interacts really well with Villains Callingrange and you just have way better bluffs to balance your valuebets (JJ TT 88 AA KK QQ AJ), for example KQo/s, AQo/s, T9s or even 87s.

I also read about u thinking to overbet turn, PIO even suggests that for 31% of your range in this spot, but never with the weak suited Ax. it suggests it for value with some AA, KK, QQ and AJ, balancing with mostly combodraws like AQhh or the above mentioned better bluffs like AQo, T9s, or even QJs as semibluffs.

Hope i could help :)

i probably do way too much stupid shit while playing, like watching youtube or some (poker)stream or some shit. not really "watching" obv but i literally can feel how it takes some of my brainpower that otherwise would go straight to the tables. still cant get rid of that habit. fml.

i dont know who the fish is here, last time i checked the CO clearly is in position vs. MP, but oh well... maybe you mean the infamous Gus-Hansen-first-to-bluff-position.

Other than that, as masticlox said... maybe try a littler nicer approach next time.

That said, i agree that AQhh here should always be checked.

@screamdustry ... well, exactly? If Villains defends correctly against a potsize rivbet, he is getting 2:1 on his call, so our range should be 2/3 value and 1/3 bluffs. If you define 17 combos as valuerange we can optimally bluff 8.5 combos.