Mike76

The most obvious hand that would benefit from raising turn would be JTs. I would call 3 combos on the flop (BDFD). Not everyone would call flop with those, but other than that I agree that we don't have many hands that want to raise. My strategy in game is to call the turn 100% there, but I was wondering if letting villain barrel and always see that river card was a good strategy (same thing on the flop). Like I said in my first post, I don't know how to approach these situations.

I don't think we should justify whether or not we should raise the turn based on how many combos of air he has compared to us. Let's take nuts/air scenario, we should never raise with a bluff catching range even if we have 0 air and the opponent has plenty.

Regarding Qx and pairs, I think most opponents will check at a high frequency with those on the turn, so we should not take that as an argument for raising.

25:15 KsQdAh 6h You said that you could overbet 6s3s here. It seems to me like you will have okay SD value with this hand, I would choose hands like T9/T8/J9/hearts that can make the nuts on the river. They do block his folding range (other than hearts) which is the downside. I'm curious what do you think about this.

Thanks and good video so far!

25:40 --> You bet river with K8hh (82.5 into 87 pot). You're saying you will have AK/AQ in this spot. Let's say villain c/r shove the river, what would you be calling with? Is AK your better hand here, or do you have some A3/A4 combos as well?

If villain was to shove, he'd be risking 473 to win 170, so 1-A would advise us to call 26.4% of our betting range.

Thanks a lot, good video!

Regarding BigFiszh's example, I made a CREV sim to understand it and to understand how many bluffs were needed. Like it has been said, 8 bluffs isn't enough to make EV(call) = 0, you need 9.5 on the flop. I added 98s (4 combos) and I applied 37.5% of bets with those, for 1.5 combos, which totals 9.5 with the T9 combos.

It gives us a perfect nuts/air scenario.

Regarding how to find out how many bluffs are needed for turn/flop (someone said that he had trouble with that), you just calculate the bluffs you have on the river and add them to your river value bets and that gives you your turn "value bets".

So in this case, we bet river with 4 value hands and 2 bluffs, so we take those 6 combos for the turn and add 3 bluffs, for a total of 9 combos. For the flop, we then take those 9 combos and add 4.5 to maintain that 2:1 ratio and we now have 13.5 total combos, 4 real value (that are the nuts on the river) and 9.5 bluffs.

A good explanation is given for that in Steve Paul's video on Bluff : Value ratios

So if we are talking about a river spot, then it is accurate?

When calculating MDF, do we take the c/r % and substract it from the % we should defend to get the calling %? I'm a bit confused on that.

Very good video

Well, in my sim, we were not even able to value bet K7 if I remember correctly. And AK would be an easy check back under the assumptions stipulated. It is different in game as people will likely c/r before the river (leaving less strong hands in their range) and they can defend the BB wider by calling, etc.

"We risk 2.5 to win 1.5, so if the blinds play 3bet or fold our open needs to work at least 37.5% of the time."

Shouldn't it be 62.5%?

Good video

"Basically you need more than 50% equity versus his calling range."

I might be wrong, but I don't think that's correct, because villain is going to have a c/r range and we lose money compared to checking when he does c/r, supposing that he is balanced (which should leave us indifferent). So we need more than 50% equity versus his calling range, and the more he c/r with a balanced range, the more equity we need.

Regarding BB's flatting range, I didn't mention in my first post that it was versus a 2.5x open, I think BB should defend wider versus a min-r. But that's certainly possible that this calling range is not wide enough versus a 2.5x open.

I agree with you that looking at different strategies from the BB makes sense. It is really time consuming though, and that's in part related to my lack of skills for using CREV.

Our main range advantage on the river is JT (16 combos versus 1), and 65 (16 combos versus 3), in the scenario that we bet all of them 100% of the time on flop/turn. Unless BB 3bets 100% with 88/99 (I was assuming he 3bet 99+ for value in my simulation), he just lacks those straights in his range, as we shouldn't bet 99 on flop/turn 100% of the time, and we probably check flop or turn a high % with KK. I'm not sure how those straights combos in BTN's range limit BB from c/raising the river, I need to look more precisely at what should be BTN's range for betting the river to find out.

I know it's different in game, as people can be calling much wider than what I supposed in my sim, but my main point was that it surprised me how tight our range should be in theory for betting that river if BB is playing somewhat GTO (I don't claim I was even close to solving for a GTO approach in this analysis).

Thanks for your response

At 35:30 top left, KT on T84dd 6d. You say that if we call the turn we always have to call the river, and I don't understand that. We don't block any diamonds and we block what you state as his potential bluffs with our Kh.

And if we always call river, why should villain bluff anything after getting called on the turn?

Good video, thanks.