Koopa

got the same here!!! 

Hi Steve,

I do not like to call the river just based on the AF stats. Since the board paired villain has to be afraid you will look him up with a K or even a Q so I do not think he will see this as a good spot to bluff.  

Also important imo: If villain wanted to bluff he had a very good opportunity on the flop when you checked to him. When he does not bet there he often has some medium value like an 8 or a 4. He might bet or also check with 99xx-QQxx type hands.  

When he calls your turn bet he could potentially have 8JTx/ AT8x type hands but as mentioned I doubt he would turn those in a bluff on the river because the board paired. 

His large bet on the river could make you think he is trying to make you fold but without read I think fishy players usually have big hands when they bet big.

I also like to just flat the flop to protect our calling range and prevent villain from auto 3-barreling flush turns/rivers. 

What range of hands do you bet this sizing on the turn?  My guess would be almost nothing! 

As a default I like to check the turn here:

We allow villain to bluff the river  (when he puts us on a Axxx type hand or missed OE).

He is more likely to look us up light on the river than on the turn because he will not face a decision on a later street. 

By checking we might  lose value from flushes but only if we think he would call 2 streets with them anyway. If we bet turn and river villain might let go of his lower flushes.  We still expect  villain to value bet his better flushes on the river when we check back the turn. When he faces a raise there he can easily think we turn the Ac blocker into a bluff and pay us off. 

Btw, I would check this turn with 100% of my range and bluff the river unimproved where I would also value bet my flushes. 

Hi,

What is your 4bet range? Do you ever 4bet non AAxx? 

You did not post any stats or reads so it is harder to analyze but in general:

a 3bet from BB to MP is consisting of many strong and playable hands. I assume your MP PFR is tight so if villain is not a fish he adjusts his 3bet range accordingly. When you 4bet you will have AAxx most of the time. 

FLOP 

No matter what the sizing on the flop villain will put you on AAxx given the preflop action. Villains continuing range consist of hands that have decent equity against our hand so here we are better of to just pot the flop imo. Villain will never raise his combo draws but will try to outdraw your AA and then get the money in when he hits the turn. 

TURN

You need 27% equity on the turn which is close. I expect villain will show up with JT most of the time when he is donkbetting all in  (you have only 20%). But since he can have AKJ, AKT, AKQ etc type of hands as well (if he is not folding vs 4bets ) you still have to call.

Hi, 

Imo his low 3bet percentage does not necessarily weigh his range to AAxx because most likely he is just flatting his mediocre aces. More often you see a small 3bet range like that to consist of very coordinated and playable hands: Double suited AAxx,ABBx,KKxx and rundowns. 

You did not mention any reads on villain but just his stats. His stats seem certainly reg like so why do you think he mostly has AAxx? If he is a reg he will realize that he will put his hand face up... 

Flop

When villain cbets into two people including a fish I think villain rarely has bare AAxx or KKxx with this sizing (would expect bigger bet to maximize fold equity).  

Without further reads his sizing actually makes me think he has OP+fd or nfd a lot (sizing small to keep dominated flush draws in). But with a gs to the nuts we are still calling the flop I guess. 

Turn

I do not give villain bare AAxx a lot and I am not a big fan of setting up river bluff. Without reads we have to expect villain to check some of his  rundowns, ABBx with a T in it as well. Would you bet your JT98ds yourself here and get it in against a better T or get a fold?  Based on this I doubt a river bluff will be  profitable.

River

To me this is a clear fold. I expect villain to play many strong connected hands that is heavy in KTxx and KKxx combo's. If he has a K blocker he could just pot the nf as well for value.

Given his cbet vs two and his check call on the turn I can not come up with any hands that he is bluffing while he has a clear value range so for me it is a fold.

Anybody?

What do you think about calling flop to jam almost any turn when he barrels?   I expect a villain with these stats to barrel turns pretty wide and expect our equity to be better vs his turn bet call range than on the flop.  Did not do any sims though...but it would be nice if we have more hands in our range to jam turn vs aggro villain, right?

If he expects your 4bet range to be mainly AAxx he could fold Axxx type hands that do not do very well against a AAxx heavy range. If he ever folds to 3bets or 4bets I prefer 4bet over calling pre flop. Especially since you think he is 3betting wider against you.

If he calls our 4bet we pick up the pot on a lot of boards (mostly paired and A high boards). Because he will put you on AAxx he will make some incorrect folds and sometimes we get it in very good because he stacks of versus AA.

As played I think he is really not bluffing turn. Given that he sees you as tight, when you call the flop your perceived range has a lot of flushes already. He will not expect to fold those out with this turn bet. 

Obviously he could bet small to keep your range wide and bluff you on the river. But stack sizes on river will be such that a lot of people will make a crying call with most flushes on the river anyway. So he did not set it up to be a very good bluff spot on river.

Think you need a real good read on villain before we can do anything other than folding turn.