KingKia

Good points brah! I'd like to add I normally tend to save the small cbets for hands I want to induce with against certain opponents (either 3bet or flat n most likely x/r turn from there) and with bluffs to pick up pots as cheaply as possible in certain spots (i like to play around with this till i find a sweet spot) and also for balancing purposes. I usually reserve this strategy against players I play with frequently or at a table where I know I will be playing against the same people for a long time.

As far as this exact hand and spot. I think it is too marginal to try the small cbet as in not a nuts or nothing situation where you don't care if you get raised. It's also a flop if you chose to bet small it makes our hand look pretty marginal/1pair-max (which is true) so it doesn't do much for deception/disguising our hand either. I like this bet if we flopped a set on this flop or had aj or kq on this board but not with 1010. The only plus I can see is it keeps the pot small but the negatives seem to far outweigh the benefits.

If you are worried about getting raised why not check the flop? Try and rely on your reads more instead of making bets for information which look like bets for information and can be exploited by good players who will put you in tough spots like this one. As played the turn or river is a check 3 streets of value on this board is far too ambitious and should only be reserved for situations against certain players when you know your hand is good (most likely a live game). I also think we have a better chance of him value betting worse instead of calling if we check the turn (not to mention most his straight draws and floats will most likely bet here instead of taking the free card). It makes our turn check more balanced in the long run as well and floating against our cbet less profitable (tougher to pull off). However it does polarize our double barrel range if we check/call too many turns with medium/strong holdings - weighs our range heavily towards bluffs and semi-bluffs then nutty/made type hands when we do bet the turn therefor easier to to exploit as well. SO basically it is a huge leveling war and different opponents call for different approaches to this strategy. Not only know what the implications most likely will be like brah said but also plan ahead and know what exactly what your counter will be based on the action your opponent proceeds with. 

i agree zen i was thinking the same exact think. I find my oop leads to me more feel based and random. when i'm thinking about a specific reason or opponent(s) i'm playing against (ie: villain checks back A-hi boards often and I don't want this flop checked through and/or i want to induce a bluff or bluff certain boards myself). I think it would be near IMPOSSIBLE to discuss the different hands and board textures to but like you said generalizing different oop leading scenarios would be interesting. What we would need to put together first is the thought process. What constitutes a good leading situations and a situation in which leading is not the best option? What are different opponent tendencies that would make us decide one was or another? How well of a hand reader our opponents are and if balancing should even be a consideration against certain opponents? I can prob go on for a while but thats a start lol you get the point im sure

Interesting article by the way thx for the recommendation!

I agree DAMCE this is a 4bet or fold but once you call pre the hand was played fine. I disagree that we are ahead of our perceived range though. I think it's pretty obvious what we have here. When villain shoves the turn he has AK beat (I doubt he is betting AK himself to get us off a chop). AJ with a gutter to the 2nd nut straight is about the worst hand we can have (as far as equity) to call a 3bet pre and cold call the flop (or should be). If we aren't drawing dead we are drawing to hopefully 4 most likely 3 outs (against his perceived range) and can basically only beat bluffs which for the most part will always have plenty of equity against our hand. As far as when we would be calling on the turn in this exact spot??? I would say NEVER! IF it is a opponent you think warrants a call with this hand then once again pre-flop is where the mistake was made because it is a 4bet or fold! And once again if I do make the mistake of calling pre and finding myself in this situation I try not to compound the mistake, simply fold, and wait for a BETTER SPOT! 

As played we have to call river imo. Fold assumes not only that he is never bluffing but that he is never value betting worse. The decision should me made on the turn in either case calling almost half of our remaining stack (more than half our starting stack) here and folding any river sounds like a disaster to me. 

I also think we have to 4bet/shove flop if we are playing this way with our combo draws. (Kx Qx diamonds). IF we usually flat big draws in this spot against this type opponent then slowplaying flop is fine. Not to mention if he plays his combo draws this way. Specially if he is a player that 3bets checks back turns with those draws or marginal made hands for this situation (a10 j10 maybe even aj - assuming he flats ak aq to our raise on the flop) 

On a smaller note: Something I don't think that was mentioned is the freeroll opportunity we lose if the turn is a diamond, against any kq combo's w/o the k of diamonds, which he will most likely check back. If he does bet a diamond turn we are shoving her right? If he does have a flush we are not folding the river in any case and we don't want him to check back any 4flush river cards (which he most likely will do unless he has the K of diamionds. Inthe rare chase he has kq with the k of diamonds we are in bad shape on a diamond turn regardless.

Hey Sauce. If we c/r flop aren't we worried about future streets if called or is it a simple shut down fold? And if so doesn't that make a float on his part with the intentions to bet any turn we check a profitable play for him, since we prob arent c/r c/ring too often? And if we are check raise check calling some of our range on the turn and river what would that be in order to balance out this play for future hands? Since I'm guessing we would need to incorporate one to make the above play less profitable for him. Also I TRY not to raise for information or to make a hand easier to play in NLHE (rather then relying on my reads) unless it's against a very tough opponent (Phil would obviously qualify) is this true in PLO as well or do you use it more often? OR am I totally wrong about my assumptions and should incorporate this play into my NLHE game when facing a marginal spot oop?? Sorry for the 21 ?s lol

Great analysis GameTHeory!! I agree with just about everything you said specially the flop analysis I don't think we can make much money here calling out of position and reverse implies odds should be a major concern considering the stack sizes and caliber of opponent. Although check folding seems weak, if the antes (and implied odds)  tip the scale towards a pre-flop call then unless we flop one of those huge flops you mentioned it maybe be a much better option then calling against this specific opponent.

If he decides to flat the turn we are in a tough spot as well. I can't think of a single river card we can comfortably bet for value (maybe a 3 since he's most likely shipping KK and 1010 on the turn) Also if our main concern is Phil playing the river perfectly against us aren't we also concerned he will play perfectly against a raise her in a much bigger pot? 

It's a check back. We're not deep enough to bet fold and have a hand we don't want to bet fold either. We're folding out all worse draws and getting it in almost every time he decided to go with the hand as big underdogs (he never check calling with his stack size - at least shouldn't be).

 Is the reason you don't have a lead range because it is too hard to balance our bet/call range oop? Lead shipping naked aq and 77 doesnt make much sense sgainst a good opponent on second though. Which is why we can't lead heads up deep stacked here? Villain can basically rep Aaxx and barrel us into a tough spot (since we can rarely ever have Aaxx here). Can't we just throw in the nut flush draw as a b/c c/c to make barreling us off the turn more difficult and less profitable as a semi-bluff w/weak draws or is that not a big enough range to disguise our hand well enough against a good hand reader. These plays have worked for me against bad players but I have a feeling from reading some of your posts they wouldn't against higher caliber competition.

Hey Phil I read you said you couldn't think of a leading range heads up here. What do you think of leading with AQxx hands (maybe with intentions of 3b-shipping if we have any reasonable draw as a back up). Or 77 w/back up draw.  Specially if we have the nut flush draw against opponents who check back a ton A hi flops with ax or weaker draws wouldn't we want to lead here? Also are we to deep to lead/ship bare AQxx and 77xx hands here?