KaptajnKold

In the first hand, I think your only mistake was calling pre-flop, but mostly because your call didn't close the action, and left you vulnerable to a 4-bet from UTG+1. Also, given your read on the lojack, you should probably not look to play a hand that gets dominated by his 3-bet range. Post flop, I don't think you made any mistakes.

In the second hand, I think you made several mistakes. The first one being that you didn't 3-bet pre-flop. A good rule of thumb is to either fold or 3-bet from the small blind, but even if you were to have a flatting range, I still think you particular hand is a mandatory 3-bet.

As played, your second, and worst mistake was donk betting on the flop. Out of position, as the (a) pre-flop defender, you should quite simply always check your entire range. In multi-way pots where aggregate ranges are stronger (more opponents = higher chance someone hit the board hard), you should be even more inclined to play passively. I understand your arguments for donk betting, but they don't really make sense if you think about them. The board is not very drawy, and your hand is not particularly vulnerable, so you should not worry too much about letting your opponents see a free turn card. In fact if you do, your hand will be well disguised, and you will be in great shape to get value from a worse queen or middle pair. Being worried that the pre-flop raiser is going to c-bet big, does not make much sense either. If he has you beat, you're going to loose a big pot regardless (as the evidence shows), and if not, you should be delighted to be getting more money in while you're ahead. As an aside: The pre-flop raiser is not supposed to c-bet big in this spot. If he does, he's making your life easier, because then you can calmly fold everything except your very strong hands (to be clear: your hand counts as that here).

Your last mistake was calling the jam. I think you already know that there was very little chance of one pair ever being good in that spot.

In game I thought I need to raise to get in more money against worse Kx and to not let flush draws and gutshots get such a great price

Your raise on the flop was a bad mistake and your reasoning was faulty. First of all, you have several streets to get in more money vs a worse king. Secondly, the board is very dry. You don’t really need protection. True, there is a flush draw, but you can’t let that scare you. Thirdly, when you raise on a dry board like this, the only thing you’ll achieve is that your opponents fold all the hands you dominate, and continue with the ones that crush you. Fourthly, in a multi-way pot the value of a single pair goes down significantly, and looking to shovel money in, is not a winning strategy. The correct play would have been to call, planning to call down barring a bad run out.

Preflop and flop look fine to me.

The problem with the turn is your sizing. You’re leaving yourself only a half pot bet behind, which means you’re pot committed and looks incredibly strong, which again means that villain will likely fold anything you beat.

When a flush is possible, you generally want to bet small. This is because you’re otherwise unlikely to get action from any hand that is not a flush.

If villain is drawing to a flush, your goal is not to make them fold! It’s to make them call!

Preflop: 3-bet > call.

As played, the rest of the hand looks fine.

I like your line. The river is an easy call. Villain can have so many worse hands.

By the river, it looks to me very much like villain has some kind of pair or maybe a stubborn A-high. I don't think draws are very likely, because I think villain would bet a FD or a good SD on the flop, and I don't think they would call your turn bet with just a gutshot. Trips also aren't very likely, because again, villain would probably bet a 7 OTF.

I like the river bet, because with the sizing you chose, I would expect villain to fold their marginal pairs and A-highs. I don't think your bluff would be nearly as effective, if you chose a smaller size.

I think pre-, flop, and turn are fine and more or less standard. I would bet slightly smaller on the flop, and slightly larger on the turn, but the difference it makes is probably marginal.

The questionable street is the river over-bet. I mean I can see why you did it: You can credibly represent a strong hand, and you have no showdown value. The problem is that with this large bet size, you are representing at least a flush, possibly just a K- or A-high flush. You wouldn't bet this large with top-set or even an (unlikely) straight, because ultimately you could only reasonably expect to be called by a flush. The problem with you representing a flush is that it is a hand that is very much in villain's range, and which you don't block at all. I don't think you can defend making this large river bluff, unless you hold Ac which blocks the nut flush.

I think it's a mistake to raise the flop. In a multiway pot the chance that one of your opponents have a strong hand goes up, and thus your fold equity goes down. At the same time, you force hands to fold that your hand does well against (lower flush draws, single pairs, straight draws). A better draw to raise this flop with, would be 56s, which benefits more from one-pair type hands folding, and does better against the hands that would call (2 pairs and sets).

Easy call, I think. I don't see how villain ends up with a T on the river very often here. I do see them often having KQ, KJ, or even QJ. They could also have an underset.

I think this hand is made more difficult because of your large bet sizing on the flop. On this flop, you should bet smaller to keep villain's range wide. The part of villains range that you beat, and which continues facing this large flop bet, is small.

Once you decide to call villain's raise, you're basically just praying that villain has a straight draw or is overplaying their 99 or 8x. On the river, you're only winning if villain has a busted straight draw, since villain will most likely just check their 99 or 98s behind. If I were going to call, I would at least pick a hand that didn't block T9 which constitutes an important part of their bluffing range.

Preflop and flop are fine, I think, but I don't like your turn line, nor your justification for it. You are (only) 100 BBs deep, and you have the second nuts! If you check on the turn, it has to be to trap, not for pot control! If you think your hand is not strong enough to CRAI with, then at least bet it for value! The board pairing OTR obviously sucks, and villain will "have it" often. But on the other hand, in villain's shoes, I would bet my entire range on this river, given how weak your line looks.

This seems speewy to me. The problem is that you are laying him such a good price that he has to call if he has even a whiff of showdown value.

I disagree. If you check this flop with TPTK, what does it mean when you do bet? On this flop texture, I would bet almost my entire range, and I would expect to get called by some middle pairs and worse Ks. I would only consider checking top set and maybe QQ and JJ.

I don't mind mind the flop check, but I think when you do, it becomes mandatory to call on a brick turn. The problem with betting flop is that villain mostly just folds hands that have little to no equity. By checking, you keep those hands in, and villain might be tempted to stab at the pot, which is what you want and why should absolutely call on the turn.

When I block so many of villain’s strong hands, I think the most profitable play is to bet small. That way we extract some value from villain’s unblocked medium strength hands. I don’t worry about missing value on the rare occasions when villain has a very strong hand, because they will likely raise you if they have e.g. a full house.

Given we don't have a heart in our hand, I don't think I could get away. I like a bigger turn bet though, to make stack sizes less awkward on the river.

Yes, i believe so. This is a dry board where you could be c-betting your entire range, which means that villain should be calling a wide range, too. Just as long as you don't put in any large polarizing bets.

Say we play this as a call instead of a raise pre. How do we play the rest of the hand? Do we just call down, or do we raise villain’s c-bet on the flip?

I would bet the flop for value.I absolutely think you can get three streets for value with this hand. It's unlikely that your Q is dominated, which means you only lose to a T. J9 is also not the only hand you have to protect agains: An Ace or a King is a bad turn card because either villain can easily have a low suited ace or king.

I like how you played the hand. I don't like raising the turn, because it feels like you're turning your hand face up. I don't think you would bluff-raise very often on a board and especially a turn that so favours villain's range.

I think the merit of betting the turn is to deny villain equity when they have unpaired overcards to our pair of 4s, with the added benefit that we have many outs to fall back on if villain is trapping with a K or better. If we bet small, we get villain to fold all their unpaired overs, whereas they are probably not folding a K a middling pocket pair, even if we bet big. Therefore I think we should bet small if we do bet.

That said, I think checking > betting. With just the river to go, betting to deny equity becomes less important. Furthermore, given that they checked behind on the flop, I think it's reasonable to assume that villain wants to see a showdown, which means that all of their unpaired hands probably has an ace (since they probably c-bet their unpaired hands w. no showdown value). This cuts down on the number of hands you can expect to get a fold out of, but at the same time makes it easier for you to play the river if an ace falls.

I don't think a call can ever be bad here. From a GTO perspective, you should call with something like half your range. I would think you would have plenty of missed draws and worse pairs on this river that you can fold before you fold this hand. Villain is repping a narrow range given 1) her flop check, and 2) her large (polarising) river-bet. The only value hands in villain's range that makes sense to me are AT, T9 and JJ. Given this, and given that neither flush draw completed, I would think there's a decent chance that villain could be over-bluffing on this river.

I play 100bb deep so a 5 bet would normally be a shove are you happy to shove AK 100bb deep against an uknown?

I would be. You have to consider that there is already a considerable amount of dead money in the pot, which means that even against an very nitty range (QQ+, AK) that always calls your shove, you are going to be breaking even. If you broaden villains calling range, or if villain sometimes folds, shoving AK is going to be +EV.

It doesn’t make sense to bet bigger on a dry board. You wouldn’t do that with your value bets, and it’s not a good strategy to use different bet sizes for value bets and bluffs.

I would prefer betting smaller on the flop and make a larger (relative to the pot) bet on the turn. A 1/3 pot sized bet on the flop accomplishes the same as a 1/2 pot sized one, but leaves you room to bet full pot on both turn and river, giving your opponent a very difficult decision with her middle pairs.

I think you have to push the river. Villain can have a straight, a smaller flush, or a rivered top-pair all of which call almost always, as well as a number of bluff catchers that call sometimes.

montana Sure, if you somehow know that villain is never bluffing, then obviously don't call. But absent any strong read, it can't be bad to base our decisions on GTO and balance.

I assume your range OTR consists of mostly trips (you don't get to the river like this with your full houses), missed spade draws, and maybe JQ. Since you are already folding all your missed draws, and given villains bet size, I think you have to call with all your trips lest you become exploitable.

I don't see how you can expect to get value from worse on the turn given your bet-sizing on the flop and turn.

Also, if you bet A5 for value on the flop and turn here, what does it reveal when you check?

I think you made a mistake by not re-raising on the flop. If you think that villain is only calling if she has JJ, you should exploit this by semi-bluffing more aggressively on wet boards like this, not by playing your strong hands more passively.

The problem with calling is that you are out of position and there are sooo many turn cards that are bad for you, making it extremely hard to get your money in good on later streets. Overcards are bad for you, clubs are bad for you, eights are bad for you. The board pairing is neutral to bad, because whomever is ahead on this flop will still be ahead if the board pairs (except on the rare occasion that one of you improves to quads).

Difficult to say. On the one hand, if you always fold AA in this spot, you become exploitable. Villains can just check-raise you when scare cards drop. On the other hand, this reeks of value: Villains at this level rarely bluff in this spot, and your hand looks very strong.

Given your read that villain is a nit, I think a fold is probably slightly better than calling. But I don't think you'll be making a big mistake either way.

The problem with betting this flop is that you're kind of turning QQ into a bluff. Maybe you will get a few calls by some middling pairs, but you'll be folding out a lot of hands that have no equity that villain would potentially bluff with. I think check-calling two streets is fine.

Villains bluffing range OTR is bound to consist of a lot of missed FDs and a few missed SDs, which means you don't want to be blocking any of those. Given hero holds the Qc, I think folding the river is fine. Any other QQ would be call.