Reasonable bluff on turn/river with QJs on a King-high board?
Posted by belrio42
Posted by belrio42 posted in Low Stakes
Reasonable bluff on turn/river with QJs on a King-high board?
This is 20NL equivalent. Villain is Tight-ish reg, straightforward from what I've seen.
Hero is in HJ with QdJd. Villain is in CO. Effective stack size is 100BB.
Preflop, UTG limps and CO posts a live BB. I raise to 5BB, CO calls, everyone else folds.
Flop is 7c5c4s. It goes check/check.
Turn is Kd. I bet 6BB, CO calls.
River is 7d. I bet 17BB, CO calls.
CO wins with Kh8h.
How do you judge the play here?
Should I c-bet flop? I don't like a c-bet because I have no draws at all, not even any backdoor draws, and I don't have much of a range advantage, if any. Villain could have all the sets and all the two pairs and all the draws.
I think turn bet is reasonable because I have lots of AK, KQ, KJs in my range which will check flop, and the check/check on the flop means that he has a marginal hand. Perhaps bigger sizing is required?
After he calls the turn bet, should I bet river? I think I should either give up, or bet smaller on the river (maybe 40% pot). His range should be mostly busted draws, some small pairs, and a King. He's probably never folding a King, and a busted draw will not call any bet. Maybe Ace-high or small pair will find a hero call for a small bet, but I don't think it's likely.
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