Forfail

"but is it wise to assume they see me this way (and if they do, act on it)?"

Why would you? If you really go ahead and deeply analyze the spot with every hand of your range, that you play that way, you would still have waaaaaaaay more real value than bluff hands in that spot.
As long as you don't overbluff it (For a really stupid example: Adding QQ, JJ, TT in the barrel range in this spot, so you have like 50% Value and 50% Bluffs) you will not only get away with it, you will have a really profitable Range and Situation in the Longrun.

The only thing that we really should take into consideration is how WE perceive our opponent aswell. For another stupid example: Would you tripple barrel bluff a 78/0/0 fish here, who never folds any hit? :-) (Obv. way too exaggerated, but i think you know what i want to point out with it :-))

Here you are:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0RkrCIBiC8

He explains this concept in way more depth and with way more spot examples and way more math behind it, in some of his video series.

If you know what people are doing, you can counter it easier. So it's definately a good watch, even though it's just a low content sample video.

"Him having 100% of AK doesnt hurt me too much though, even him calling 100% of KQ on the river isnt bad enough to stop me from doing it under the assumptions I laid out."

Exactly! That's why i love your assumptions in that spot, aswell as your play.

"But a bluffcatcher cant ever be a fistpump call imo by definition. If players play well it should always be close to 0 EV. In reality they will be -EV since most players underbluff (again including me). In theory KQ is probably a call a good % of the time, but it can never be much above 0 EV unless your opponent is very atypical for these stakes."

I see what you mean and i agree to a 100% with you, but dont forget what i mentioned in my first post: "It depends on how he perceives you a lot.".
When he perceives you as exactly that, a KQ call is good. Like your play is awesome under that assumptions.

I just wanted to point out, that some Kx will call you, like Dddog mentioned. But like you mentioned: It shouldn't bother you, since it won't effect you in the longrun.

kafrinius
That's a "new" pretty common line. Since MP's bet size looks really weak there, and the overcall of Hero also doesn't look that strong you can reraise pretty much everything there (don't overdo it though!)
If he just do it with Pot or under Potsize (he is a bit over it) the bluff has to work like 46% of the time to be breakeven. Considering we give up every turn if we are called on the flop. Definately a pretty strong and good play by him, even though he is a damn lucker and should rot in hell if he sucks out my set :P

It depends on what you 3bet vs an UTG open in the SB.
But since this hand is about assuming, let's assume your range here.
Most aggressive Regs hate to fold Equity Hands with blockers and don't like to play them OOP either, if they aren't the aggressor.
When you 3bet AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ there and you tripple barrel every Diamond Draw with it KQ definately is a fistpump Valuecall against an decent aggressive Reg.
We can discount QQ, JJ there, since you would check it at some point in this hand.
So you are ahead with AA, KK, AK, (KQ - but it would be a split if you had it and he aswell) while he beats every other combo you are going to barrel.
Based on the Odds and those assumption Ranges, yes KQ is a fistpump Snap.
Plus: Do you really think anybody would fold a really good bluffcatcher on the river, when he decided to call the turn and everything busts?
As mentioned, i think KQ is a fistpump snap, when he calls the Turn and all Draws busts at the RIver, while KJ is close.
PS.: Did he call you with KQ? ;-)

It depends on how he perceives you a lot.
But against most decent regs KQ is a fistpump, smash the fucking computer screen, hell yeah snap. KJ is closer.

That's actually a tricky question.
Most people think following:
"Cold Calling means someone has raised Preflop and another player has 3bettet the opener and someone behind them "COLDCALLED" this 3bet"
That's pretty comon, but this definition isn't true.

A coldcall in HM2 / PT4 is following:
"Cold calling is when you have no money committed and you call a raise preflop."

That means, when someone opens from UTG, MP, CO and another player calls on the button his TOT Cold Call goes up, but you will never have a real idea what his range will be there in the longrun.

Therefore: Just remove that stat and add "Coldcalling 3Bet's" which i refer to in definition number 1. It's way more usefull and you get way more information out of it. (Which ranges he overcalls to a 3bet).

And then again:
UTG Raises, BU 3Bets, BB calls.
--> The BB didn't "Coldcall", there was money invested. He "Calls 3Bet" stat gets up.

Ahhhhh i'm writing romans.
Just ignore that stat, there are more useful stats out there lol.

Herocalls don't really affect our winrate too much.
That's why i wouldn't ever call the river on that runout against his line, even though it's a great bluffspot.
I'm not quite sure on the turn though.
In 3bet Pots we aren't too afraid of flushes and we are pretty much on top of our range.
I would most likely bet the turn and check/fold the river.
The reasons for a bet on the turn is, that he still have like every pocket of 99+ which he most likely fold, aswell as some combos of AT, AJ which he obviously calls with a Heart in it, but check behind bricked rivers based on the major showdown value. (So we generate more value for us)

If you are calling on the flop (i would do it, since i think folding there would be a mistake against his range he can do that with), you have to leadjam on pretty much every safe turn card.

I shove here aswell, based on positions, unless i have the read that he only does that line with AA, KK. As soon as he does it aswell with QQ you generate profit by jamming.

Pre is debateable. I think it depends a lot on your opponent and how structure your range against regs. Therefore only you can tell which suits you in that particular spots.

I like how you played it, but i would prefer a 55%-70% Riverbet since he can still check behind a lot of stuff you would get value from. It would be a Bet/Fold though.

Is it really weird?
I should included Stats, but he is a standard ABC Reg, therefore he wouldn't flat KK pre against a min UTG open. Or at a really low frequency.
I learned from Yourdoom's Videos that when you are clearly ahead at some point (not only when u are ahead, but that's a big factor here) and are happy to get it in and his range has a lot of equity, we want to make him make mistakes.
Therefore we want to give him bad Odds to call with all his draws, when we think that he won't fold his draws. His Sets anyway, while only 88 is likely. And i'm not even sure if he would fold 2Pair to an overbet.
When we use our standard sizing he get the odds to call us + the implied odds. He just doesn't make a mistake. We neither, but we don't maximize our value we can get here.
When we overbet he makes a mistake when he calls. Thats why i asked about sizings. His call is probably still +EV against my sizing, as deep as we are, based on the implieds he gets. But it's still not a thrilling call, he most likely still make. With combodraws anyway.

If i misunderstood that concept, please enlighten me.

Edit: I would never ever make that overbet against a good thinking reg, since i lose a lot of value then.

@ Luigi
I understand why you would 3bet 87s here, but i don't get why you would go ahead and 3bet AA pre, when he folds that much. Can you explain the reasoning behind it against this playertype?