NOTE: I AM ONLY INTERESTED IN WHETHER OR NOT MY ASSUMPTIONS ARE REALISTIC. I AM NOT INTERESTED IN WHETHER OR NOT THE CBET IS WRONG, THE 3B IS WRONG OR ANY OTHER PLAY I MADE.

So my opponent is a 21/17. I have 300 hands on him and so far he raised 23% in EP (52 opportunities). It is likely the sample is distorting his true RFI in EP so I will use 17% to be on the safe side.

He folded to 3Bets 50% of the time so far out of 10 opportunities. The sample is fairly small but this is a very reasonable number so I will use it for my assumptions.

So when I 3B I assume he is going to fold about half of his hands. He will Continue with a range resembling this:
88-AA
AQo+
ATs+
KTs+
QTs+
JTs

I will also assume he will 4B KK+ 90% of the time and call it 10%. I will assume he will 4B QQ/AK 33% of the time and call it the remaining 67%. I will assume he uses AJo as a 4B bluff (not that important whether thats realistic or not).

So his calling range will be:
10% KK+
67% QQ/AK
100% AQo, ATs-AQs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs

I will assume he will call my flop Cbet (AQ with a diamond seems like a good Cbet bluff to me) with TP+ and backdoor FD + overs as well as FD.

His range is now:
88 3 combos
99-JJ 18 combos
QQ+ 5.1 combos
2 overs + FD 9.7 combos
2 overs + BDFD 9.7 combos

I felt like the K turn was a great card for me to represent and put a lot of pressure on him. I dont think most of his PP will call me down on this board as he seriously has to worry about my AK. So my plan here was to barrel turn and river and get called pretty much only by AK+. I felt like he would call me on turn with 99-QQ but would fold them on river as this seems to be a tendency at 50NL. I also believe he would fold KQ on the river if he still had it in his range.

What do you guys think of my assumptions?