EffenRiver
8 points
Thanks, everyone. I definitely agree with everyone's thoughts on not lowering the 3-bet size pre. All together, I think sizing up pre and c-betting just a tad larger feels pretty good here. I checked the flop situation out on Flopzilla, and it looks like villain has around 30% continues with hands we beat. Given the strength of our hand and the unlikelihood of hands we beat drawing out on us, I believe I'll stand by my turn and river x/c's, because even when villain continues with hands we beat, he's never happy to see a lot of aggression, so I think we get the most money in ahead when villain is given the chance to barrel into us.
Nov. 2, 2018 | 3:36 p.m.
This hand is an example of a situation in which I believe that we should play AA somewhat passively, given the flop texture and preflop action. I'm pretty comfortable with turn and river action - they seem to play themselves, as villain's range on the flop is a ton of smaller PPs, 7x, and probably an abnormally high number of random floats, with only combos that beat us (of which there are very few) likely to give us any significant action. I'd be interested to hear alternate opinions on this. I'm mainly looking for thoughts on 2 decision points:
Preflop 3-bet sizing: given villain's min-raise from UTG, I figured his range to be fairly wide, and decided to size down considerably from standard. My decision was based on a desire to widen both villain's calling and 4-betting ranges here. After the hand was over, I wonder if our stack sizes, being so deep, should have had me sizing up above standard rather than down.
Flop action: As I said, I believe this hand should play passively, in general, but I'm wondering if I should have considered checking this flop rather than c-betting. If we are going to c-bet most of the time here, what type of sizing should we be going with? I felt my flop sizing was actually too small, though I'm not inclined to go too much bigger. I'm wondering where we think the best sizing lies, or if we should bet here at all. Protection is clearly not an issue here, so we need to extract max value from a range of hands that is going to have missed a ton.
NL Holdem $0.1(BB)
HJ ($10.41)
CO ($42.95)
BTN ($10.98)
HERO ($54.91)
BB ($11.17)
UTG ($25.92)
Dealt to Hero: As Ah
UTG Raises To $0.20, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To $0.55, BB Folds, UTG Calls $0.35
Hero SPR on Flop: [21.14 effective]
Flop ($1.20): 7h Js Jc
HERO Bets $0.30 (Rem. Stack: 54.06), UTG Calls $0.30 (Rem. Stack: 25.07)
Turn ($1.80): 7h Js Jc 3c
HERO Checks, UTG Bets $0.85 (Rem. Stack: 24.22), HERO Calls $0.85 (Rem. Stack: 53.21)
River ($3.50): 7h Js Jc 3c 3h
HERO Checks, UTG Bets $1.66 (Rem. Stack: 22.56), HERO Calls $1.66 (Rem. Stack: 51.55)
Nov. 1, 2018 | 3:33 a.m.
I would suspect that if villain is competent, that he's going to under-bluff in this spot, so I wouldn't hate a fold here, though it feels dirty and is likely fairly close, mathematically. That is, if your assumption that villain does this with AK is correct (only 1 combo left for A7s, so not much help there). If not, much easier fold.
I would challenge your reasoning for the small river bet - all Ax has the same hand and is likely price insensitive, given the line. Everything else folds or beats you, so i would think a polarizing river shove gets it in the most often when you're actually ahead -especially since, as you demonstrated here, you're calling a shove anyway.
Oct. 30, 2018 | 4:49 p.m.
I agree that knowing villain's frequencies this was spew all day, but the situation at the time was readless, so I assumed field tendencies were at play (i.e. super wide Btn ranges). Should have been a bit more clear on that point for Q1.
Oct. 27, 2018 | 6:26 p.m.
Note: My software does not support HUD in FF, so villain stats were unknown prior to HH review.
I have 2 main questions here:
At what point should I shut down the aggression, and what are the main factors to consider in this spot? I don't hate my flop c-bet (though I can be convinced it was bad), but any advice around sizing (I think I went too small here?) I figured that villain's 3-bet calling range from the BTN would include a lot of Ax combos, KJs+, 22-88, some SCs, etc. I expect my c-bet to get through any high-card combos that don't contain a diamond, PPs below 77 (blocking 99 here helps), and may even fold out a fair amount of equity on SC combos that hit the board. I think the turn is where I should have shut down - villain's continues vs. flop c-bet are very strong vs. my range here, and if river filled in my gutshot I would have a bluffcatcher, given the board on the turn.
Knowing now that villain is a nit, would a better line in this situation simply be to flat, and fold to flop aggression on this unfavorable board?
NL Holdem $0.1(BB)
CO ($23.16) [VPIP: 10.2% | PFR: 5.3% | AGG: 37.5% | 3-Bet: 2.3% | Hands: 244]
BTN ($8.22) [VPIP: 11% | PFR: 4.4% | AGG: 32.4% | 3-Bet: 2.3% | Hands: 182]
SB ($6.72) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 12]
BB HERO ($11.8) [VPIP: 24.4% | PFR: 16.5% | AGG: 31.9% | 3-Bet: 9% | Hands: 2603]
UTG ($24.3) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 10]
HJ ($9.49) [VPIP: 13.3% | PFR: 1.2% | AGG: 23.1% | 3-Bet: 7.7% | Hands: 83]
Dealt to Hero: Ah 9h
UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Raises To $0.30, SB Folds, HERO Raises To $1, BTN Calls $0.70
Hero SPR on Flop: [3.52 effective]
Flop ($2.05): Td Jd 7d
HERO Bets $0.80 (Rem. Stack: 10.0), BTN Calls $0.80 (Rem. Stack: 6.42)
Turn ($3.65): Td Jd 7d Tc
HERO Bets $2.15 (Rem. Stack: 7.85), BTN Calls $2.15 (Rem. Stack: 4.27)
River ($7.95): Td Jd 7d Tc 4s
HERO Bets $7.85 (all in)
Oct. 27, 2018 | 5:34 p.m.
I really enjoyed the format of this video, and the mix of concrete hand situations and theoretical concepts felt very good. If I were to change anything, it would be to examine a theoretical concept in the initial question and follow each one with a concrete hand example to apply each to (with additional hand examples for concepts that have a lot of nuance).
Overall, I think this may have been the most beneficial 45 minutes or so (including my pausing and reflecting) I've spent studying a video in a long time! Looking forward to more!
Oct. 25, 2018 | 4:15 p.m.
A quick look shows that you are getting killed in the blinds. In fact, without doing the precise math, I suspect that you could fold 100% of the time from the blinds and show a profit over this same sample. I would be curious to know what is happening here: are you 3-betting light too often? Flatting too much? My personal observation (no stats to truly back this up) is that ranges are somewhat stronger at zoom/fast-fold. I tend to figure it is because impatience doesn't have as much effect on ranges, so even undisciplined players tighten up.
Sept. 20, 2018 | 6:38 p.m.
Don't like this spot at all for a shove, as even a bad villain likely plays perfectly against it. It's an unlucky runout for you, but villain can't call river with worse and never really folds better. On cleaner rivers, shove is a nice play here.
Sept. 18, 2018 | 7:46 p.m.
Can't help but suspect that villain was set-mining pre. Turn sizing looks like a setup to make river shove easy to call. I agree, not enough bluffs here, fold looks good.
Swifffft, I think you make a really good point here, and I appreciate you taking the time to respond again. I like the idea of barreling a value-heavy range in a spot like this, especially when taking into account the number of call-down hands villain has in his range, as opposed to floats that would likely fire into us after a check.
In this hand as it actually played out, villain, if he was strong enough, would likely have raised me on the turn and bombed the river - he showed up Ac6c, having turned the nut flush draw. Even with villain taking that line, I'm fairly certain I still win this hand, though with a much bigger pot, as I've got villain coolered, in a sense, by having the exact hand that leaves only 1 combo of AJ suited - and I'm never giving him credit for any other Jx here, given the action.
Nov. 9, 2018 | 3:46 a.m.