10NL Fast-Fold: 3-bet from BB vs. BTN open, monotone flop w/ gutshot

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

10NL Fast-Fold: 3-bet from BB vs. BTN open, monotone flop w/ gutshot

Note: My software does not support HUD in FF, so villain stats were unknown prior to HH review.

I have 2 main questions here:

  1. At what point should I shut down the aggression, and what are the main factors to consider in this spot? I don't hate my flop c-bet (though I can be convinced it was bad), but any advice around sizing (I think I went too small here?) I figured that villain's 3-bet calling range from the BTN would include a lot of Ax combos, KJs+, 22-88, some SCs, etc. I expect my c-bet to get through any high-card combos that don't contain a diamond, PPs below 77 (blocking 99 here helps), and may even fold out a fair amount of equity on SC combos that hit the board. I think the turn is where I should have shut down - villain's continues vs. flop c-bet are very strong vs. my range here, and if river filled in my gutshot I would have a bluffcatcher, given the board on the turn.

  2. Knowing now that villain is a nit, would a better line in this situation simply be to flat, and fold to flop aggression on this unfavorable board?

NL Holdem $0.1(BB)
CO ($23.16) [VPIP: 10.2% | PFR: 5.3% | AGG: 37.5% | 3-Bet: 2.3% | Hands: 244]
BTN ($8.22) [VPIP: 11% | PFR: 4.4% | AGG: 32.4% | 3-Bet: 2.3% | Hands: 182]
SB ($6.72) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 12]
BB HERO ($11.8) [VPIP: 24.4% | PFR: 16.5% | AGG: 31.9% | 3-Bet: 9% | Hands: 2603]
UTG ($24.3) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 10]
HJ ($9.49) [VPIP: 13.3% | PFR: 1.2% | AGG: 23.1% | 3-Bet: 7.7% | Hands: 83]

Dealt to Hero: Ah 9h

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Raises To $0.30, SB Folds, HERO Raises To $1, BTN Calls $0.70

Hero SPR on Flop: [3.52 effective]
Flop ($2.05): Td Jd 7d
HERO Bets $0.80 (Rem. Stack: 10.0), BTN Calls $0.80 (Rem. Stack: 6.42)

Turn ($3.65): Td Jd 7d Tc
HERO Bets $2.15 (Rem. Stack: 7.85), BTN Calls $2.15 (Rem. Stack: 4.27)

River ($7.95): Td Jd 7d Tc 4s
HERO Bets $7.85 (all in)

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