Baraky

I would guess villain is polarized enough so calling is a superior choice, and I'm not sure he has enough queens for a profitable bluff...considering I don't expect him to fold many aces, if any, to this line.

It was the only (in my eyes) hand I kinda disagreed with the options taken, but this was a nice video as always.

RunItTw1ce It is about 15% raise with the exact combo.

Very important topic.

I completely agree. You nailed it.

I really enjoyed the video and you are a great player.

Tip:

I would like to see more hands where you face aggression with difficult hands (mixed strategies or small ev decisions), similar to the A8s one, those spots I struggle most.

Some notes:

ATo x 77 hand. I solved it with optimal preflop ranges, and opponent indeed bets around 80% of the flop with 77 with a spade and the Tc turn with his combo in a reasonable frequency, and is a pure call against your raise size turn. I like your exploitative reasons though to justify the raise (mainly that the read the guy won't shove wide on the turn), as your combo is indeed strategically possible to raise the turn.

Thanks for the video.

Tao Te Ching is great.

Hey, I checked your site but it's not available to buy there. Any updates?

Don't be too hard on yourself. You're definitely in the right path. Things will come in time. Keep it up :)

I think the anonymous environment + small sessions is the only way to build it, otherwise MES against him would be easy to implement. He's definitely playing a massive check-raise blueprint strat and probably some multi-street oop barrel (otherwise how would it even be possible to have so many redline situations?). This guy has took the analysis to it's limit. Props to him.

Dude, this is the most insane graph I have ever seen. And he's actually losing @ showdown, so he's probably forcing the aggression to the limit. Wtf.

great stream bro, keep it up

The adaptations I mentioned were, as redvulture said, to villain increase a lot his bluffcatching range, and as hes going to have more pure air hands than you (as hes 3betting the stronger part of his range), he must overbet turn and river otherwise he wont be capable to not give you odds to call with your bluffcatchers (as he'll have too much air for value) or he'll have have to check and accept you making money with your pure air hands instead of him.

Very nice vídeo. You must agree that this is an exploitable strategy, bluffing unbalancedly where your opponents could, so that you will win money with your pure air hands after they decide their pure airs arent strong enough to barrel at some point. Indeed they aren't capable of turning every bad hand into a bluff, because in a single raise pot their range is much more capped, and if they have a very unbalanced bet strategy vs missed cbet, you could call with a very high portion of your bluff catchers (you'll have more bluffcatchers than him). On the other hand, when you stab the river, you are certainly not doing it thinly enough to balance with your giant amount of bluffs, and so villain can also call with a very high amount of his bluffcatchers (any, basically). There are a couple of solutions for this, but this post would be too long lol. Lmk what you think about these considerations.

Definitely looking up for more of your vídeos...greats topics you talked about. Keep it up.

For such small edges in deeper tournaments, with a weak field, yea, it is a must to pass these spots. The point I defended wasn't so extreme.

Another point besides the roi from the +cEV spots early, is the bigger roi you'll have if you double up and play a deeper stack throughout the tournament. Nowadays people react well accordingly to nash ranges, but you can still play exploitatively with a deeper stack. So yea, I have worried about this point too, but today I don't think this is as relevant as I thought.

Given the pot odds and the equity you have against QQ+,AK which they are certainly shoving, this is a must call.

You divided betsize/potsize, which is the B, but didnt put it in the formula A = B/(B+1)...you took the frequency straight from the betsize/potsize result. Sorry if I'm mistaken, I'm a beginner.
Thanks for the answer.

Great video Juan, congratulations and thanks.

Another question...which are "optimal" c-bet, turn c-bet and river c-bet, or aggressive factor for these streets, in my oponent's case? If he was playing "perfectly", let's say, do you have an idea of how (more or less) these numbers would look like?

It's nice to know since we're using gto approach as a threshold, so it would be an easier way to adjust exploitatively.

Sorry for the begginer's question, but isn't A equal to B/(B+1)? Following up to the final minimum defense frequency formula which is 1-A, we would find the number 74%.

it's still a matter of bluffing or not AK, since opponent is most likely to bet/call his AA/KK/QQ's...so yea, it's a good line for KT and 9Ts (and Q's), but not really for AK I believe.

it's a dicey spot in practice, but the thought process is definitely worth it.

Great video. There was a main subject but you didn't limit to that and the JTo hand was a very nice plus. Keep it up.

Very good video.

I think forcing 2 players to fold a potential trips is just too ambicious for these stakes. The 99 and QTs were very nice though. Nice vid.

I'm not folding a blank river ever after calling the turn. When I said call him down I meant turn and river.

That's just bad for him that we have a hand that calls him down this time.

"His continuing betting range should be pretty narrowed, because jamming all flush draws OTR lets you be exploited a lot by a bunch of offsuit AQ/KQ just calling there. " I didn't understand this part. Given circumstances I do believe he 3-bets me at least half of his AQ's (JJ's always) and as I said, even with KQo I do have equity to call him down 3 streets even considering him raising the flop only with monster draw (9Ts) or nuts fdraw (besides KQ/some AQ/JQ and 33). It seems sick and it is unusual to see anyone calling down ace high here, but the math doesn't tell me why not. Just for a note, I think if we call flop, turn and river bricks, we can check behind because he won't hit his 3-outer with his nut fdraws enough (Axs) and if he plays correctly he must check these bluffcatchers when river comes. Now, if river completes the flush, I do believe we must shove, as well as he must check his flushes. This is a very nice spot that seems not to be being played "correctly" by most of the population.

Even though people here tend to play loosely, AJo is not a good hand to squeeze as it is not (in my opinion) a good hand to 3-bet in an optimal situation. Of course people calling with a wide range would be nice to 3-bet depolarized etc etc, but in practice you will have a hand that doesn't flop very well and gets to showdown very weak, as it doesn't make big hands often. In the most loose situation (bu raising and bb calling) I still call with AJo and squeeze KQo as it's as good for blockers and has less showdown value.

Now, about the hand, it's absolutely a better flop for him than for you. If he's the type who check raises air, he will simply not fold enough for a c-bet to work. He will check-raise air and any pair to stack off because he knows he has the needed odds to do so. I would remove 9T from his range, because here he is either bluffing you or inducing you to go all in, in practice I believe he would shove directly with it.

Inducing here with 99/bottom/under/middle pairs giving you room to float, or having to call the rest of his stack if you shove, when he does have the odds to shove his pairs directly, is just terrible. So it seems (for his stack and raise sizes) that he's trying to represent a monster, which in my opinion polarizes a lot his range, and as he is so loose, he will definitely not hit these frequently. Not only that, but exploitatively speaking, why should he reraise with his monsters (2 pairs+) with this stack, when it screams strenght and if you have value he'll stack you anyway? Of course, if he is shoving directly his middle pairs he must shove his monsters too, that's why I said exploitatively speaking, because what you see in practice are players almost always slowplaying in these spots.

So yeah, given how loose and how polarized I believe his range is and how much people LOVE to make cheap bluffs in these spots where you have shown strenght etc, I do believe this AJo is a shove and you'll see him mucking instantly many times.