So this is a hand I played
in the main event of LAPT- Brasil. Buy in was $2k.

Reads in villain: was kinda
aggro, opening pots and calling pretty much every time he got 3bet. Not much dynamic between us.

Blinds 300- 600- with 50
ante.

Stacks: Me 55k ish, Villain covers, and CO 25k.

Villain opens to 1.2k in
MP, hj call, CO call and me on the btn with AJo decided to squeeze to 4.6k.
villain calls, hj folds and CO calls.

Flop (16,350): 872 with two
diamonds.

Villain checks, CO checks
and I bet 7.2k, villain makes it 17.2k, CO (that had only 20k left behind) folds

My analysis:

Pot preflop: 16350

Pot postflop: 7200 + 17200
= 24400

Total pot = 40750

·         Minimun defense frequency: (1-A)% (sean lefort 2nd vid)

 Let A = B / (B+1)

Let B = ratio of what
villain is risking to what he can win (betsize / potsize)

Villain raises 17,200 to
win a total of 40750 so 17,200 / 40750 = 0.42

Minimun defense frequency =
58%

·     Villain is raising us 10k so we need to call 10k to win 40750
so 10,000/50750 = 19.7% which would be our direct equity
needed to continue with our hand. Can we ever float here instead of shoving
with this good odds??

·         Break even folding frequency: (this formula is in Sthephen
Chidwick video: Introduction to Live MTTs)

84,000 is the amout we
would have if villain folds.

(1-x) is villain calling
frequency

117,000 is the total of the
pot if we get called.

0.25 is our equity in the
hand if called

and 43,000 is the amout we
would have if we just fold.

This is the range i think
villain would call our shove:
(Ax8x,Ax7x,JJ-77,Tx9x,8x7x,6x5x,22,AdQd-Ad9d,Ad7d-Ad3d,KdJd,QdTd)

 84,000x + (1-x)(117,000 *
0.25) = 43,000

84,000x + (1-x)(29250) =
43000

84000x – 29250x + 29250 =
43000

54750x = 13750

X= 25%

I need villain to fold 25%
in order for my shove to breakeven.

 So if we add a few bluffs
to villains range that would fold to our shove like KQ, QJ, JT, AQ, AT. I think
it would be a profitable shove. 

So i kinda want to shove... What do you think about my
squeeze?, Is calling the flop raise
an option?? checking flop back?

Thanks for all the help.