Anht

Bet bigger flop. Bet turn. He can call with lots of pair + draw. Probably bet river instead of x/c since read is that villain is on the passive side so we cant expect him to turn weak pairs into bluffs after a brick river

As played i think its a must call. Your hand is very under l repped after small cbet flop, x/c small turn bet on draw heavy board and checked nut brick river.

I would bluff this river near 100% since your hand looks so much like weak pair + busted draw that cant call.

I think you're only beat here by Ad8d Ah8h. 55 should be raising on the flop most of the time. If you're folding KsQs here you're only calling with 55 and that can't be correct.

You flop the nuts but when it goes donk raise reraise your hand doesnt look as good. We're hoping for K8s (probably doesnt have k8o in his range), slow played AA and possibly slow played AK both of which are unlikely. Hes extremely unlikely to do this with KQ or worse Kx. We block Ad4d. Also most people elect to call once raised with FDs. He almost never has KK so its basically 88, Adxd, and randomly spews (probably unlikely given you consider him a good reg and his 22/20 stats).

With all that said i think by shoving over a 3bet here youre going to be behind a good percentage of the time. He just doesnt have enough worse hands that can play this way. Also, hes repping a monster by 3betting at stakes where people dont have a balanced flop 3betting range.

Oops youre right i meant xb. Ive been away from here for awhile.Turn call looks bad to me if we have to x/f on the brick rivers. I dont think we get enough rivers where we can bluff and villain im not sure most villains can let go of over pairs often enough.

River fold is the biggest mistake imo. All the pair+draws missed. And we're being offered 3:1. Its such a good price when the board was so drawy and then bricks off.

Cant fold on the river. Hes betting half pot. You have to win here 25% of the time. We should definitely definitely definitely be good here more than 25% of the time. I wouldve jammed flop. My perceived range looks very drawy when i jusy jam overtop. I cant see anyone having QQ. Btn could have turned 2pair. So if i didnt jam flop i wouldve jammed turn since it brought a club and the adds my semi bluffs to my perceived range.

I dont think we have the best hand on turn here. Most people give up air when the 8 pairs the board on the turn. Ako would likely cb. I think akcc should be a cb here too since youre not getting many folds on this board/turn. Im curious what your plan was for turn on a 2 river.

How aggressive is your opponent? How often do you 3bet? How often does your opponent call a 3bet. How often does your opponent check fold flop? At 10NL I've found that some people are incapable of bluffing. Others will take one stab on flop and give up. Against those types of people I could find a fold here.

Id definitely call river here. Your hand is way under repped. I'm not sure there are any rivers that I'd fold on after checking back turn.

Same. I really like tank calling turn here. I think it induces so many spaz bluffs and overplays that it becomes a very profitable call on the river.

If you can't call a 4-bet, maybe you should not 3-bet in the first place.
I don't think this reasoning is correct. In most instances everyone else will fold and the opener will either call or fold and we'll be playing in a 3bet pot in position against a weaker range.

I don't see how you can fold AKs pre-flop, when you're getting great odds to call.
I really do think that 90% of the time here villain will have KK+ but let's suspend that part of the argument. I would like to know if you think AKo is a call if we know with 100% certainty that villain is only 4 cold betting here with AA and KK. I don't have CREV but I would have to guess that the times that we flop a hand better than AA would not justify a preflop call given the flop size and the spr.

The value in having AKs over AKo is that you're more likely to flop a flush draw with overs that will allow you to continue on the flop. In the scenarios that we flop a flush draw. I don't believe calling with our flush draw will be profitable, and we can't raise flop with our FD expecting villain to ever for KK or AA.

Last time I played these stakes people we 3 betting 0-5% of hands (Bovada so 40-140 hand samples). People didn't 3 bet ak or qq so they're probably very unlikely to have a light 4 betting range let alone a light cold 4 betting range. Even though they have no bluffs when they 4 bet most people will still elect to 4bet AA vs calling. I'm not sure what villain would do with KK here. The more aggressive villains will probably 4 bet while more passive villains will call with it.

AK is a bad call here against the 4 bettor if HJ folds. (AKs might be a call if HJ calls but I may be too optimistic) There is a good chance that you won't get villain's stack if the you hit your A on the flop and villain has KK.

You're probably never good here if you flop a K but you'll get it in and he shows up with KK or AA and most people will dismiss it as a cooler since you had TPTK in a 4bet pot how could it be bad? But if you think about what hands people at 5NL are going to be cold 4 betting with....

I would defend QQ here and hope to hit a Q on the flop and get money if KK or AA to make the best out of this spot.

Agreed. Cold 4 bet range is AA and KK at 25NL. Given that its full ring and utg opened, utg+1 3bet sb 4bet range may not even include KK, definitely not AK when its a small/standard sizing.

If you called utg and got 3bet by sb and felted on this run out then I would consider it a cooler. you've under represented your hand greatly so an aggressive opponent could felt overpairs here imo.

3betting an utg open next to act looks really strong. I like tanking a little bit and then jamming here over 4betting to a standard size, but then again I play on bovada and i can blend in with the fishies. Cold 4 betting to a normal amount looks really strong since people don't really have a 3bet bluff so in turn we shouldnt really have a 4bet bluffing range especially for an utg open and hj 3bet at these stakes. Jamming makes it look so much like we have ak and not aa and people at these stakes don't like to fold JJ+ or AK. 

You're a little deeper with hj so it sort of becomes a leveling game where you shouldn't be raising with ak but does he know thay ak is not as hood  and does he think you know this?

I would call here with TT and JJ maybe even 22+. They should play the same where if utg back raises (unlikely since he opens so wide) hj calls we can call. If utg raises hj jams we fold and if utg raises hj folds (super unlikely) then we likely have to fold. For flop were probably set mining with a hand like jj.

What is your reasoning for the smallish cbet flop as opposed to a larger sizing? 

Are we bet calling flop or bet folding flop?

Turn is probably the best card you can ask for. What do you think villain's range is on the turn? What is your range to bet this turn?

Spoilers:

Id like to know how sticky villain is on the flop. We have queens and its a wet board. Betting 75-80% pot can't be terribly wrong. Villain is passive so he should be more likely to x/c with his draws then jam flop so I'm happily b/f against this type of villain.

As played villain can be calling with 9x, 8x, JTo? JTs, other suited broadways, TT, JJ, maybe even 77 66 if he defends those. I suspect villain is the type to call and flat with ak,aq,aj pre. Those hands should be peeling flop.

Turn is the brickest of bricks. Same hands shouls call another half pot bet.

River is a little interesting as played we've shown very little strength. Villain probably isn't the type to turn his busted draws into a bluff but is he the type to start value betting 9x or lead into us with Kx since we've shown so much weakness. I think this is a spot where we can be about half pot and get a high, 9x jj, tt and possibly 8x to look us up. People aren't going to give us much credit after we x/b a blank turn and bet when checked to again on river.

Becareful about discounting flush combos out of villains range at 10-25NL. The player pool is more likely to call then to bet their fds imo..

I would need to know how often he is cbetting and if his normal cbetting size is pot, how often he is checking back the turn once we call a large cbet on the flop, and how sticky he is with two overs no club.

I would like c/r flop more if the guy was like 22/20 with a cbet of 80% since I can win the pot right away.

Without knowing any of his tendencies, I probably wouldn't c/r this flop. I can't really represent much when I raise here, there aren't many turns that improve my equity that's going to make him want to fold better Ax or overpairs, and his range is so strong when he pots flop. I think it would be too spewy raising flop when he pots it. I'd rather (edit: check flop and) check turn on a blank and see what he does on the turn.

You have the Ac which blocks a ton of his flushes here given his 5% pfr. The only flush I expect him to have is KJcc but even then I'm not sure that he's going to be cbetting pot with it.

He bets the Qc turn pretty big as well. I'm expecting his range here to be TT, QQ, KK, AA and possibly JJc. I would think villain would slow down without the Jc with JJ but I'm not entirely sure if he realizes JJ no club isn't a very strong hand anymore.

I prefer a jam here based on the stack sizing. I also think a jam here would make your range look the widest to include middling PPs with clubs and Ac with pairs or Kc with pairs or broadways with the Ac or Kc depending on how sticky you are on the flop.

Flop c/r is small imo. I like to make it a little bigger oop. That raise makes it so he has to call $10 to win $21.5.

Is it optimal to check Tx on the turn? I wouldn't think so with the FD out there. I think Tx is good for value on the turn and blank rivers

The 5c doesnt change anything. Tx already got there on the turn. Id call river since it just make sense to check back Tx on the turn let alone JT.

I wonder if we could get away with a xrai on the river and get him off a chop. Probably not but i

Edit: left off the rest of the last sentence

Probably not but i expect him to call since we should be betting river and not going fot a cr was Tx or JT after turn gets checked through. We should be free rolling a bluff here. Id do it if my br had 100-1000 buyins so I wouldn't be tilted if he did something weird like xb JTss on the turn.

Imo, I'm not calling river unless I know villain is capable of a 3 barrel bluff for 75% + pot on the river. Lots of villains will give up on river or bet around half pot to give themselves better odds.

Another thing I need to know is that villain has to capable of check raise bluffing AND firing 3 barrels. There are a lot of people who stab when checked through and such, but I haven't observed many villain's capable of check raise semi-bluffing let alone check raise bluffing with air at 10NL. I've made a few call downs since the draws missed thinking their range was 4x or 77 and hoping they could fire a big bet on the river with a busted draw. I haven't caught any bluffing before I decided to move up to 25NL.

Another thing to take note of is how aggressive is this villain. What is his f cbet? How likely is he to call with a draw vs c/r, bet, bomb river?

Another thing to note is that hands you beat aren't raising flop and firing 3 unless its a hand like KQcc,KQss,QJcc,QJss,ATcc,ATss

As played I'm folding river. I think most likely he has 4x here and sometimes but rarely 77. I don't think villains at these stakes 3 barrel bluff when the board doesnt change on the river.

What is your 4bet % and what is his 3bet, f to 4bet call 4bet and 5bet. Is his range wide enough to have JTo here? Is his range wide enough to have QTo KTo? Would he play TT JJ this way?

I would love a blue print for zone on bovada. Playing against a new pool of anonymous players kills me. TPTK could be insta felt against one villain or snap fold against another villain.

Thanks.

How would you play it on a non club turn and he bets 3/4pot again? Does it become a call with 1/2pot? Do we lead club rivers if we call 1/2 pot turn?
Is an A a scare card for us if we call?

If we hit our club on the turn do we check or lead? If he jams on a club I don't think we can fold but we wouldn't be very happy with calling either right? What is our play when he checks back a club turn?

Do you have the read that SB vs BB flop raises are still value heavy? I def agree that flop raises in other positions are value heavy but SB vs BB I feel it becomes more bluff heavy. I'm not 100% confident on this read or anything though.

I'm still in 25NL so I'm not sure about 50NL. But in 25NL games very few people get it in pre with AK. Most of the time people won't even 3 bet AK. It was an adjustment I had to make from watching the NL videos where people get in AK and its ok vs 10NL and 25NL where getting in AK pre is burning money.

Given your notes I wouldn't be horribly surprised if he showed up with a flush here. Villain is defending with a wide range and he isn't playing fit or fold on the flop but I do expect him to bet with his air on the turn once you check. On all of the hands with show down value that you beat should be checking back and taking a show down. On the river I can see him having straight draws that missed and need to bluff but you block some for his AK and KT straight draws. AK and AT should cb and show down. KT may also check back.

Is villain the type to turn underpairs or Ax and Kx into a bluff to get you to fold A high, K high, Kk, AA? Given his preflop stats I would say no. Villain is the loose calling type and not the aggro spewing type, but if villain has shown that he's capable of stabbing when youve shown weakness twice then this becomes closer to a call given the pot odds and that villain defends super wide preflop and calls with almost everything on the flop. The turn gets checked through so all of the air that he decides to give up with on the turn is in his range on the river. If he is capable of calling flops with bd draws and stabbing river when weakness is shown then I would call. Villains tend not to realize how much air they have and tend to over bluff on the river imo.

At 10NL if I get raised flop I like to 3bet shove (instead of 3x raise sizing) flops most textures with the nuts. I think it makes my perceived range more airy/spewwy, and I just think villain is never folding at these stakes when they raise flop. Id hate for the turn to complete draws and have villain stop putting in money or even worse keeps putting money in. Its super exploitable but people really like to call at 10NL and I'd hate to disappoint them especially when they raise flop to let me know they have a good hand.

What range is villain's value range on the river? I have limited 25NL experience (probably 1200 hands) nut I just don't see villain bombing this river with 2pair. I'm certainly not calling down with 1pair hands that missed their straight draw when villain has shown a fair amount of strength.

I'm sort of convinced that from most 25NL villain's potsized bets are very much weighted towards straights. I would expect a closer to 1/2 pot sizing for 2pair and bluffs because the player pool seems not to be very bluffy when we've shown strength in the hand.

I think the range you've given villain is a little narrow on the flop. Imo, people at these stakes play way too many unsuited connectors. I expect villain to be b/c a raise with all of the hands that he decides to donk on this kind of board texture. I expect villain to call with a hand as weak as Q9o. I think this is still a good spot to raise with 99. 88 should be a better raise since we dont block T9 or J9.

What do you think his range is for donking on the turn?

I have a hard time narrowing villain's range on the turn donk since it is such an uncommon line. Im pretty sure that villain is not expecting us to be folding to his half pot-ish bet since I shouldn't be raising this flop with complete air. Villain's range villain's hand could be Tx without a pair, pair + SDs, 2pair, sets, and straights.

Villain bombs river. I don't think two pair is a pot size value bet given the action. Since I only called turn two pair might be a b/f hand. I would guess that villain is likely to check down his pair+draws that missed. I think his range looks something like this:

I'm not sure what pure bluffs villain would have in his range given that he calls a raise and donks only for 1/2 pot on the turn. His pot size value range is definitely weighted towards straights and maybe a weird A9spades that ran into 2pair on the river but I'm not sure he donks with that hand on the turn. It just seems like so much of his bluffing range should be check raising turn that it leaves his turn leads very show down heavy or hands that have good enough equity to bet/call turn.