Albin Jakobsson

BTN: 188.6 BB (VPIP: 23.08, PFR: 14.10, 3Bet Preflop: 10.81, Hands: 80)
[b]SB: 146.7 BB[/b] (VPIP: 43.58, PFR: 4.39, 3Bet Preflop: 3.59, Hands: 1,033)
BB: 110 BB (VPIP: 26.52, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 137)
UTG: 262.2 BB (VPIP: 38.15, PFR: 17.27, 3Bet Preflop: 2.83, Hands: 256)
[b]Hero (CO): 102.3 BB[/b]

[b]SB[/b] posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB, UTG posts penalty blind 1.5 BB

[b]Pre Flop:[/b] i[/i] [b]Hero[/b] has K:diamond: J:heart:

UTG checks, [color=red][b]Hero[/b] raises to 3.5 BB[/color], [i]fold[/i], [b]SB[/b] calls 3 BB, [i]fold[/i], [i]fold[/i]

[b]Flop:[/b] i[/i] K:club: T:diamond: 2:heart:
[b]SB[/b] checks, [color=red][b]Hero[/b] bets 7.1 BB[/color], [b]SB[/b] calls 7.1 BB

[b]Turn:[/b] i[/i] J:club:
[b]SB[/b] checks, [color=red][b]Hero[/b] bets 17.7 BB[/color], [color=red][b]SB[/b] raises to 76.8 BB[/color], [color=red][b]Hero[/b] raises to 91.7 BB and is all-in[/color], [b]SB[/b] calls 14.9 BB

[b]River:[/b] i[/i] 6:diamond:

[spoiler][b]SB[/b] shows A:heart: Q:diamond: (Straight, Ace High)
(Pre 63%, Flop 23%, Turn 91%)
[b]Hero[/b] shows K:diamond: J:heart: (Two Pair, Kings and Jacks)
(Pre 37%, Flop 77%, Turn 9%)
[b]SB[/b] wins 196.8 BB
Rake paid 10.3 BB
[/spoiler]

Question: Should we fold or get it in?
Answer: I'm not sure really, that's why I post here.
But if a give him a turn raising range I think it would be something like this:

Board: Td2hKcJc
Equity Win Tie
UTG 58.76% 58.02% 0.74% { AA, JJ-TT, 22, AQs+, KTs+, Q9s, JTs, AQo+, KTo, Q9o, JTo }
UTG+1 41.24% 40.51% 0.74% { KdJh }

And then we're behind.
I rarely think he's bluffing a FD here because we've shown plenty of strength isoraising PF and betting big OTF & OTT. Also if we look at his PF tendencies he seems to be very passive which I believe leans slightly to that if he floated with a backdoor FD he would rather call OTT. And even if we assume he has all the Ax club combos (with FD) we're still behind.

Conclusion: Fold because we doesn't beat enough combos to have a profitable call.

Any thoughts on my thinking process?

Thanks! :)

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