NL10, CO vs SB, Top 2p, what to do vs raise OTT?
Posted by Albin Jakobsson
Posted by Albin Jakobsson posted in Low Stakes
NL10, CO vs SB, Top 2p, what to do vs raise OTT?
BTN: 188.6 BB (VPIP: 23.08, PFR: 14.10, 3Bet Preflop: 10.81, Hands: 80)
[b]SB: 146.7 BB[/b] (VPIP: 43.58, PFR: 4.39, 3Bet Preflop: 3.59, Hands: 1,033)
BB: 110 BB (VPIP: 26.52, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 137)
UTG: 262.2 BB (VPIP: 38.15, PFR: 17.27, 3Bet Preflop: 2.83, Hands: 256)
[b]Hero (CO): 102.3 BB[/b]
[b]SB[/b] posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB, UTG posts penalty blind 1.5 BB
[b]Pre Flop:[/b] i[/i] [b]Hero[/b] has K:diamond: J:heart:
UTG checks, [color=red][b]Hero[/b] raises to 3.5 BB[/color], [i]fold[/i], [b]SB[/b] calls 3 BB, [i]fold[/i], [i]fold[/i]
[b]Flop:[/b] i[/i] K:club: T:diamond: 2:heart:
[b]SB[/b] checks, [color=red][b]Hero[/b] bets 7.1 BB[/color], [b]SB[/b] calls 7.1 BB
[b]Turn:[/b] i[/i] J:club:
[b]SB[/b] checks, [color=red][b]Hero[/b] bets 17.7 BB[/color], [color=red][b]SB[/b] raises to 76.8 BB[/color], [color=red][b]Hero[/b] raises to 91.7 BB and is all-in[/color], [b]SB[/b] calls 14.9 BB
[b]River:[/b] i[/i] 6:diamond:
[spoiler][b]SB[/b] shows A:heart: Q:diamond: (Straight, Ace High)
(Pre 63%, Flop 23%, Turn 91%)
[b]Hero[/b] shows K:diamond: J:heart: (Two Pair, Kings and Jacks)
(Pre 37%, Flop 77%, Turn 9%)
[b]SB[/b] wins 196.8 BB
Rake paid 10.3 BB
[/spoiler]
Question: Should we fold or get it in?
Answer: I'm not sure really, that's why I post here.
But if a give him a turn raising range I think it would be something like this:
Board: Td2hKcJc
Equity Win Tie
UTG 58.76% 58.02% 0.74% { AA, JJ-TT, 22, AQs+, KTs+, Q9s, JTs, AQo+, KTo, Q9o, JTo }
UTG+1 41.24% 40.51% 0.74% { KdJh }
And then we're behind.
I rarely think he's bluffing a FD here because we've shown plenty of strength isoraising PF and betting big OTF & OTT. Also if we look at his PF tendencies he seems to be very passive which I believe leans slightly to that if he floated with a backdoor FD he would rather call OTT. And even if we assume he has all the Ax club combos (with FD) we're still behind.
Conclusion: Fold because we doesn't beat enough combos to have a profitable call.
Any thoughts on my thinking process?
Thanks! :)
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