Trouble spots illustrated by ~600+bb pot
Posted by devwil
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devwil
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Low Stakes
Trouble spots illustrated by ~600+bb pot
BN: $90.89
SB: $49.00
BB: $157.83 (Hero)
UTG: $638.34
MP: $75.12
SB is unknown, new to the table.
It didn't exactly work like that. When I'm in situations like this (which come up relatively often), I'm not sure if I'm making a big mistake or not. When I get sort of "whipsawed" with a DS rundown, I feel like my equity/playability against the types of hands likely to be jamming preflop is too high to fold. For example, when I calculate the equity of this hand versus two 5%6H ranges in PPT, it's a slight favorite! But I feel spewy in this situations. But I also feel like I can't fold. So I'm finally posting about the problem on RIO!
On the flop, I'm not sure what the best line is.
If we shove, we can potentially get a better hand to fold: against such a loose player it's never a guarantee, but if we can get them to fold any pair 44-JJ and any A/K-high hand that doesn't have a draw on this board, we deny a lot of equity and get to draw heads-up against SB.
And if we shove and get called, I believe we only need about 25% scoop equity to be GII good. If CO is only calling a range of (Q, KK+, dd) and depending on a reasonable guess for what SB might go all-in with preflop, we have at least 27% equity in theory, from what I'm seeing in PPT.
However, we could also check/fold or check/call.
Check/folding has its merits, though we're liable to be folding a TON of equity.
And there's a specific reason I may want to check/call this flop: CO, while not especially bluffy according to my read, had made a $250 river shove on (I may be slightly misremembering; it's hard for me to look up this hand being an Ignition/DriveHUD user) a 23463 no-flush board with T864 (and no missed flush draw; it wasn't really a reasonable bluff... they got looked up by a "gutsy" 57 to lose the $650 pot I mentioned). If we shove, we could get something like (A!Q!TT+!dd) to fold (and that's good re: getting heads-up), but if we check we could get something like that to shove as a significant underdog to us heads-up in the side pot. (Wishful as that may sound, don't forget that CO is pretty maniacal, so who knows the limits of their spew range.)
So yeah: I'd love to hear how folks think through preflop and flop. As I mentioned, the preflop situation is one I keep finding myself in (especially with 1-2 maniacs at the table), and I'm not sure if I'm playing it right. I've included a bunch of my thoughts on both streets... hopefully folks find this big PLO50 hand interesting.
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Thanks for interesting hand.
Preflop
When you play at a table where are 95/50 fish it will change the complete table dynamics. Good players start to take lines that they usually wont. If they act before the fish, they can just call with Aces and let the fish do the betting. They also prefer to play more connected cards and get multiway pots.
I am not saing that the players behind the fish are going to have aces, but most likely you will not get hand heads up. If you bet and CO calls, they are starting to get again odds which might be lucrative enough for them to call.
You have a hand that will get great benefit from high SPR. It has playability and it can hit strong. It can flop straights with redraws or very good combodraws. The fact that your flushes might be dominated is not a reason to make this hand for smaller PSR situation. And the risks involved are similar what just happened here.
Flop
Flop is difficult. Something to correct in mindset that the idea is not to get a villain fold a hand that necessary has higher equity than yours. If you have 30% equity, another one has stable 45% equity and third player has 25% equity, you also benefit if that 25% equity is folding and it is divided to you and your villain still in hand. I recommend thinking more getting equity to fold than to think whether the equity which is folding is higher or smaller than yours. When it is significant, it is already important.
That doesn't mean that I know what to do. I think that despite the big amounts, all actions have EV which is somehow similar. This might even be a spot where you could use mixed strategy or use random generator to decide your line.
Check-call has it merits that you might be able to draw once for free. Q will never fold, just overcards would not get it in and they have only 6 outs for higher pair without a flush. By leading you are expected to get some equity to fold.
If you check and people get it in, then you have a decision which is also hard.
Your hand is such a one, that in low SPR it will have very hard decisions like this. This is the reason why I prefer to play low SPR. In multiway pots you can also play for stacks preflop of course because it plays well against aces and other good hands already 3-way and even better 4-way.
Conclusion
I think that in high SPR situation in multiway spots your hand has more implied odds than reverse implied odds. When you hit excellent combodraw or staright with redraws, you can beat hands that you are getting it in more than you loose when your flush is dominated. That's why I would play it in high SPR rather than low SPR.
And if you get it heads up against a range that is 2%-20%, you have only 46% equity. And with that big pots and low SPR, your opponents often play it more or less correct if you decide to go with shove at every flop.
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