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Semi-bluffing with top set 3-way

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

Semi-bluffing with top set 3-way

http://www.pokerhand.org/?6516600

Pre-flop: We flat IP with the NFD and kings. If the dangler was a T+ or suited I think a squeeze would be a good play.

Flop: Villain bets 9 into 12 and gets a call. Since he did not bet pot I think his holdings are: Two-pair+add-on, second nut straight, nut straight but not with a very weak/non-existent add-on, set, pair+good flushdraw.

Vs this range we have about 50% (QQAT,QQAK,QQJT,AQTT,AJQ9,AJQT,Jh9h87,JhTh98,AhQTh8)

Furthermore I think he may bet/fold some of his range, maybe a naked AJ89 and a hand such as TT88.

The one who calls will probably have a weaker range but which may include a naked AJ. Because of his lesser stack I think that scenario is pretty rare though.

Thoughts about potting the flop and repping AJ+add-on when we in reality have 50% equity vs his get-in range. Vs AJxx we have 44% equity. And what if Villain pots the flop?

3 Comments

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Jason Ring 12 years, 2 months ago
He's never folding the nuts to a raise. I would peel the flop and re-evaluate on the turn. Some of your boat outs are sure to be taken in the case somebody flopped the straight.

Potting the flop is probably ok. You can get some folds and get calls from pair+draw type hands
Clownfish 12 years, 2 months ago
I also dislike your flop raise. Both of the other players could have the nuts even though you have an ace. You are very rarely called by worse and you basically draw on boot. If you had also FD to go with that'd be a lot better but this way I am pretty sure it is a mistake. Like Jason suggested peel the flop and see what happens on the turn.

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