River decision facing 3 streets of donking with nut flush on paired board
Posted by nassander
Posted by
nassander
posted in
Mid Stakes
River decision facing 3 streets of donking with nut flush on paired board
http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/13906867_2D558AFD2B
Villian is a decent reg who 4 tables, plays most hands pre but is an absolute rock post. He only ever value bets and he just doesn't go after pots at all, doesn't c-bet without any equity just checks and folds to a turn donk.
On this hand when he donks I figure he has a made hand like 2 pair or a set. I haven't gone through then hands with him to see if he donks non nut FDs but I'm assuming he doesn't.
When the board pairs and my flush comes and he bets again I call to see his action on the river, hoping he checks. Once he bets the river I think the only hand he ever has here is 44xx. He would be 3 betting KKxx and 22xx is I guess the other rare possibility. I don't see him donking 2 pair even really on a 2 tone board.ALso he can't have QQxx with a FD rivered boat since I have the Qc.
FWIW I typed in the chat "44" ... "the only hand you ever have here is 44" and he replied "that is BS and you know it" I think when a 4 tabler takes the time to reply here he wants me to call.
So what do you think, good fold on the river? Do you just fold the turn?
Loading 4 Comments...
What about raising the turn?
Curious, is this to induce a check on the river? If not what's your thinking for raising?
"Villian is a decent reg who 4 tables, plays most hands pre but is an absolute rock post. He only ever value bets and he just doesn't go after pots at all, doesn't c-bet without any equity just checks and folds to a turn donk."
If this is your read then folding river was the correct play and fairly easy. What would he donk the flop with? KKxx, 44xx, 22xx, some sort of K4xx, K2xx, maybe some type of 2345 hand, decent size flush draws, etc.
Now, once the flush comes in on the turn but the board pairs, we can assume he might continue with JcTcXX type hands and also the same KKxx, 44xx, 22xx, K2xx, etc. We can expect him to check K4xx.
You have now called two streets, so once he bets again, I'd say it's pretty safe to eliminate JcTcXX type hands. You have the nut flush so we know he obviously doesn't have that. He's not going for 3 streets with a smaller flush. We can safely fold the river as his range (based on your previous read) is almost certain to beat our hand, this consists of:
KKxx (some KK hands that do not have a suit will flat here PF IMO if he's a good balanced player).
44xx
22xx
K2xx
2345
What can we beat here besides a total airball?
Either fold turn or call river, your line is just setting money on fire, because his range is gonna barrel every rivercard in the deck and your hand can not improve (except for 1 out).
With your read it should be a fairly easy fold here.
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