PLO 10 Flop commitment decision w nut wrap + 3rd FD

Posted by

Posted by posted in Low Stakes

PLO 10 Flop commitment decision w nut wrap + 3rd FD

BN: $10.59
SB: $9.90 (Hero)
BB: $10.68
HJ: $8.80
CO: $14.80
Preflop ($0.15) (5 Players)
Hero was dealt K 4 T Q
HJ folds, CO raises to $0.35, BN calls $0.35, Hero calls $0.30, BB calls $0.25
Flop ($1.40) J A 9 (4 Players)
Hero bets $1.34, BB calls $1.34, CO raises to $6.70, BN folds, Hero raises to $9.55, and is all in, BB folds, CO calls $2.85
I had just sat, so no reads.
Maybe leading wasn't the best choice. But once I'm in this spot, do I commit?

If my calculations are correct I need around 37,5% equity.
My draw looks strong but I can be against better flush draws.

I ran some simulations and I was surprised to know that I fare much better against top set or 2pair (AJ**, A9**) than against top pair w the nut flush draw:

30.26% vs Ah*h** 69.74%
43.63% vs AA** 56.37%
52.83% vs AJ** 47.17%

2 Comments

Loading 2 Comments...

nurmix 11 years, 10 months ago

That's pre fold. DS or with 9, J, Q, A instead of 4 i do call.

Otf i don't like leading. I just check and watch for further action. Though you got wrap your fd sucks. So i would probably avoid any agressive play by me in this multipot.

jonna102 11 years, 10 months ago

Yeah, fold this pre.  This flop situation is a pretty good example of why.  Once you're there you kinda have to get the money in one way or another, but I doubt you're going to be too excited about the results in a 4-way pot.

FWIW, once you got yourself into this spot I think checking the flop and evaluating the action is the best play.  If there's anything like a bet and a call, then you can probably just comfortably muck it.  If it folds to the button and he puts in a weak bet, then you may be safe to check-jam.  Though that's still not a great alternative, because given how passive these games play, someone could easily have checked the NFD and then just get it in with you when you jam.

The thing here is that if your flush draw is good you have an absolute monster draw.  But if you're up against a higher flush draw (which is likely if there's a bet and a call), then that pretty much kills your equity.  It's one of those sick PLO spots.

So when you flop a monster like this, and still have to be worried about getting it in bad, then you should look to previous streets for possible mistakes.  In this case, the mistake is calling preflop.

Note that if you were on the button in a spot like this you would have so many more options to play the hand well.  It's still not a great hand 4-way though.

Be the first to add a comment

Runitonce.com uses cookies to give you the best experience. Learn more about our Cookie Policy