PL50(zoom): 3bp, 3-way, deep, ip

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PL50(zoom): 3bp, 3-way, deep, ip

BN: $91.22 (Hero)
SB: $117.46
BB: $59.67
UTG: $52.06
HJ: $25.69
CO: $89.59
SB - 28/12, 3bet 7, cb total 83, hands 110
BB - 39/9, 3bet - n/a, hands 11
Preflop ($0.75) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt A 9 Q K
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $1.50, SB calls $1.25, BB raises to $6, Hero calls $4.50, SB calls $4.50
Flop ($18.50) 5 J 8 (3 Players)
SB checks, BB bets $6.50

I have 2 idea about this spot:

1) CB sizing BB in this wet flop tells us that his hand is weak. Actions SB also don't tell us about the great power of his hand. So we can push here and pick up this dead money but if we get call it isn't a fail because against stackoff range we have ~50%.

2) 

a) It's perfect hand for mw pot and we have position.

b) We aren't a favorite against stackoff range.

c) Small bet sizing BB with monster in this flop is perfect way to get value from weak hands. And we don't really sure about SB range with whom we have 200bb deep. All of this does not add profitability to our flop push.

So we can call here and let weak hands\draws to make a mistake.

What way of thinking is best?

4 Comments

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JimmyGlass 10 years, 11 months ago

first of all, I would assume SB vast majority of time is giving up and I would look at the spot as HU (initial raiser could have OP+some draw, but after bet\raise, should fold it)

we're actually could be ok vs b\gii range of BB as it includes many draws. from my experience BB's sizing means "I need a free card"

w\ dead money and hand that is doing ok vs even sets\top2 range + solid FE, I'm raising here. things could be different if we all were ~200bbs  

ZenFish 10 years, 11 months ago

This is a very draw-heavy board. We have the NF draw. Villain is unlikely to be 3-betting many JJ/88/55 OOP and multiway. Therefore it's unlikely he has a hand strong enough to want action. Even his strongest wraps don't do too well when there's a nut flush draw out there.

By that logic, I interpret his sizing as most likely a pot-controlling play, not a top-of-range-please-raise-me play. It could be a hand that he should have checked OOP and multiway, but he doesn't want to appear weak and face a bet, so he lands on a compromise. Or it could be a hand that he should have potted and committed with, but he isn't happy to stack off, so he bets small and delays his commitment decision.

In both cases, he must be contemplating a bet-fold, which is great news for us.

Calling is obviously +EV, but a raise also looks like a good option. If we have read BB correctly, he is ready to fold quite a bit. SB could be trapping, but most likely isn't. We have the nut flush draw, which makes us mighty. We should be able to fold out some hands that would like to continue, but can't, because we could have them totally crushed.

So it appears we have decent fold equity +decent equity against any reasonable GII range and there's 1/2 a  buy-in in the pot already. The risk/reward ratio isn't bad at all, even if we get it in bad sometimes. 


DirtyD 10 years, 11 months ago

Not sure what to make of BB's sizing - it's very odd to bet so small on such a coordinated board - but I have to think it's likely to be weak. We have great equity against anything, but not such a monster that we're trying to induce action (we only have A-high at this point). Looks to me like a very clear raise. Our hand benefits a lot from fold equity, and given action, we can expect to take it down quite often.

Tom Coldwell 10 years, 11 months ago

Unsurprisingly, Zen has nailed it here. Raising just looks so attractive with the combination of our equity and our fold equity in this pot.

The only thing I'd like to add is that if we are calling, our thought-process should revolve around potential implied odds by keeping people in the pot (ie do we stand to get people to make bad stack-offs when we hit enough to justify not putting pressure on with a raise now?). My belief is that, given the current size of the pot relative to everyone's stack, we should just take what is there already. I guess if SB was the type who couldn't fold any flush if we let him stay in, there would be some merit in flatting, but without reads that someone here is gonna make absurd errors to a single bet, I would just take what is there and be very pleased indeed.

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