Hate This Spot
Posted by CustomSuited
Posted by
CustomSuited
posted in
Low Stakes
Hate This Spot
So yeah I may have butchered this hand but this is a really common spot and I would like to learn to play it better. Villian is a reg playing 36/27 who my stats show steals about 57% in the SB and cbets flop about 70% of the time and 60% of the time on the turn. He's never c/r a turn as pfr. This is over a somewhat limited sample size of 400 hands but he's definitely not a nit. Due to how often I believe he's betting this turn with hands that I'm currently ahead of (Axxx+NFD, AKJT, lower 2pair, bare wraps, wraps+fd) and how often we run into a bad river that we may make a mistake on; is it correct to raise here? We're barely ahead of his drawing hands and doing terrible vs his value hands if we get it in on the turn. I have not seen him get to the river much so I don't have info on his 3barrel frequency. If raising isn't the right play here vs this villian, what's our plan on the river if we call? I can't imagine a fold is correct here.
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Definitely hate the raise for the reasons you mentioned. We're also completely throwing away our positional advantage while being at the top of our range.
I think folding on club rivers is pretty easy since we should have lots of flush draws in his eyes (plus we have no blockers). Most other cards we can v-bet when checked to or pick off barrels. I think the only tough decision we have is if he barrels big a non-club broadway card.
Yeah, calling definitely makes sense now that I think about it, especially given that we have position. All the other points make a lot of sense too, I do agree that he will play club rivers in a straightforward fashion since we have so many club hands in our range.
In spots like these I like to ask myself who will play rivers best. In this case I think it's definitely you. You have all the power. You can make good laydowns, you can pick off bluffs or you can make thin value bets. All of that disappears if you raise. So just call and make a good decision on the river imo.
By raising you also make sure that he folds all worse hands and raises all better hands. That's not something you want. If you think he always has draws here then a raise would be fine for protection, but on this board it just doesn't seem very likely. Clubs is the only realistic draw, and it's not all that likely that he has it.
Yeah, totally understand the spot now, thanks guys.
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