combodraw+pair = have-to-shove in 3bet pot?
Posted by Suniram
Posted by Suniram posted in Low Stakes
combodraw+pair = have-to-shove in 3bet pot?
SB: $125.43
BB: $40.50
HJ: $56.34
CO: $42.48
HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $1.30, SB folds, BB raises to $4.15, Hero calls $2.85
Villain seems pretty snug. 25/16 with a 4% overall 3bet over only 120 hands. He seems to cbet at a high frequency tho: 80%. But again, sample is very limited.
First of all. Preflop this is a call IP vs a 3bet no matter how tight villain is, right? Stack depth, position and double-suitedness should be enouh, or am I wrong here?
Flop: First though is 'FD+gutter+pair in 3bet pot. -> shove' but on 2nd thought I wasn't too sure anymore.
I don't have specific reads on villain so I'd like you to help me construct his cbetting his cbet/gii range.
Aditionally, I'm interested in what you think his small cbet means. If he bet like $8, I'd assume that he just has some AKQJ, AAT9 or w/e and is going with it, but betting $5 feels like he is polarizing his range to bet/folds and monsters (monter = not afraid of the draws), since at least I wouldn't be that small with let's say AAKK. If I want to stick to my assumption that he is polarized to weak hands and monster, shoving becomes even worse right?
I played around with PPT and the EV of shoving changes drastically from a 'normal' gii range, to a 'monster' gii range.
- 4%:(A:dd, KK, K9, K:dd, KQJT, QJT:dd, AAK) : Thats the normal range. Vs that we have close to 40% and with some FE, which we def have vs that sizing, shoving makes lotsa sense.
- 4%:(KK:dd, K9:dd, KQJT:dd, QJT:dd, AA:dd:(QJ,JT,QT)): That would be my 'monster' range vs which we have 16%. Even if his range for betting that small isn't that nutty shoving still is bad.
To get an idea of the scenario I did some math. For that I assumed that we have 30% vs his gii range which is just a random number somewhere in the middle of those 2 ranges.
x*($13,5) + (1-x)*(0,30*$44 + ,70*-$36)
13,5x + (1-x)*($13,2 - 25,2)
13,5x + (1-x)*(-12)
13,5x - 12 + 12x
25,5x = 12
x = 47%
Vs a range that we have 30% against, which I feel like is rather an optimistic guess, if villain is somewhat polarized, we need 47% folds to make a shove +-EV, which again I'm not too sure we get vs a tight preflop-3betting range.
Long story short: Is calling better in this spot? It's a 'standard' shove vs a at least averagely-wide preflop-3betting rane and a non-confusing cbet size that indicates FE, right?
Any comments aprreciated, and thanks to anyone who takes his time to read through this mess. ^^
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